Should Tony stay, and what are the politicalimplications

[uwila]

Tony staying for now

I was discussing this with a colleague this morning. And wondered what mners think.

If Tony hangs on for longer, will it increase Cameron's chances of beating Brown? Will it keep Brown from getting the PM position?

Cameron seems quite keen for Tony to step down. Do you think he thinks he can better beat Brown in the General Election if Brown takes office sooner rather than later?

Why should he stop down over this?

The list of his and his cabinets embarrassing blunders are innumerable but their feet seem cemented to the spot.

Think the Labour party are hoping he'll stay on so that, when they perform abysmally in the May elections, they can dump him and say it's all his fault. If Brown comes in now and they still perform badly, they can hardly dump their brand new leader, can they?

I don't think Cameron will win.
No gravitas,although people are pissed off with Labour which is inevitable after 10 years in power.
I remember the exact same mood when the Cons were toppled.

Teflon Tony obviously dobbed his "friend" Lord L into the police last week

Good point Frecks.

Hey, do you think there's any chance of getting Gordon wrapped up in the honours scandal, hence damaging his chances of becoming PM?

If Tony could, he would . However, I think Gordon is too astute to have anything to do with that side of things.

If there are any charges brought regarding the cash for honours stuff, then Tony ought to be charged too. After all, the buck stops with him.

No, I don't think so uwila. I think Brown has kept well away from all this - and it is possible that his poorly concealed antipathy to Tony's cronies stems from this whole sordid affair.
I think freckle is right - if they do get beaten at the next election they will want to pin it on Tony Blair.
I am not sure the Conservatives will win - however nice a man Cameron is in his personal life, I think he is pasting over ideological cracks in his party's policies daily. His "one-nation compassionate Toryism" is not reflected in most of his voters.
I think we are heading for a hung parliament next time. Could be interesting given how samey the big two parties are on paper on a number of issues these days.

Gordon Brown makes me sick.

I love Gordon Brown . Actually, I think TB should stay until the honours thing is over - I think he needs to be there to face up to whatever comes out rather than be skulking (sulking ?) in the backbenches where it can all be swept under the carpet. Then GB can sweep in on his shining white charger and rescue us all .

Oh, I don't see TB on the backbenches in the next parliament hannahsaunt. I think he will be off doing lecture tours with his best pal Bill.

Or possibly planting out tubers in the garden at HMP Ford

I think TB may well be trying to hang on and do as much unpopular stuff as possible now so that he can take the heat for it and Gordon starts with a clean sheet. Agree about the May elections.

I think Cameron's nightmare scenario is for Tony to step down in the summer and for Gordon to call a snap election to get a mandate for being pm. There is now way the tories would win - they have no policies to speak of and I think Cameron's complete lack of experience would soon be visible in an eleciton campaign.

I think Cameron has still to reveal himself, I think he's a lot cleverer than we know yet.
I reckon he's letting Labour destroy themselves, let's face it, they don't need his help.

PMSL at TB planting tubers at HMP Ford! Marina you are superb.

Did anyone hear TB on the Today programme this am? he was really very good (and I speak as someone who is totally disillusioned with him).

TB nearly always speaks well though Puddle. He has a legal background & is charismatic, never gets too bogged down in the facts & has a great "personal" touch.

What did he actually say though? (I didn't hear it, so would be quite interested - if you don't mind that is.)

Tony is a bit too much sizzle and not enough steak do you not think? As you say bugsy, you feel, oh, he's such a nice fellow, while he is speaking...and then 15 minutes later you find you cannot remember a single solid fact. Or perhaps that is just my Brian these days.

Well. He said he wasn't stepping down. Seemed v angry about the whole investigation and said he would hve lots to say about it when the investigation is over.

Said he was a different person fromn the one who described himself as 'a pretty straight kinda guy' and he said he was a different person ten years down the line who was less concerned with being liked but more with doing the right thing.

And he was on there, being grilled by Humphries so I will give him credit for that.

Agree Bugsy he is a consummate performer.

I'll bet it's on listen again on the BBC site actually.

Ah, yes, I'm begining to see why Cameron might want Tony to step down: it might be easier to take Brown down if a few more failures could be put down to his leadership.

So, who knows when the next General Election is? Even if Gordon doesn't step in until September (Assuming, God forbid!, that it is Gordon), how much longer will it be until the next General Election? Will there still be plenty of time for Gordon to make an arse of himself?

& just while I am having a bit of a rant. Since when should a Prime Minister, who is supposed to be running the country be taking time out to have his photo taken here there & everywhere far too blinkin often!!!

I can't see TB hanging around to take any flak. He's too concerned with securing his place "in history". After all, a ex-PM with a catalogue of complete disasters as his swansong isn't going to command as much as an after-dinner speaker as one who goes out on a high, is he?

Next General Election can be any time the PM chooses to call one, but the latest in the current paraliament it can go to would be May 2010.

If Gordon takes over the polls look good for him in the autumn, his advisers will be getting him to call an early one - maybe as early as Oct 2007.

sorry, if Gordon takes over AND the polls, etc.