Year 12 Parents - How does your school calculate predicted grades for UCAS?

[janinlondon]

Help me, I'm drowning! I am being told different things by different parents in different schools. So am resorting to the mighty power of Mumsnet and anecdotal evidence. Please can current year 12 parents (those of us with no/very few AS exams) give me a clue on how your school does their predictions?

Y12 have a UCAS exam week where they are doing mocks in subjects there are no AS for to give predicted grades. Results day to be same as AS level day I think. I assumed all schools would be doing the same ? My DD is doing AS for two subjects.

Thanks User - do you know how they deal with the possibility of an A* at A level in an AS examined subject?

No good question, maybe a Y13 parent could help with that. However AS levels have only ever marked to A so uni will be used to that or have a policy for those predicted higher grades.

Thanks User.....I fear my question is too stupid to get a response from anyone else!??

dd is doing as levels in all subjects. If they get over 90 UMS then they are predicted an A* for A level.

That's my understanding anyway.

Thank you OYBBK. You're the first I've heard of with AS in all subjects!

it has meant a fairly pressured few weeks with 12 papers. But at least any predictions will have some logic behind them.

or was it 10 papers....? don't quite remember!

DS has two non-linear subjects, he's not recently taken any internal exams in the other subjects. At the moment I have no idea how college predict grades but there's a parent's information evening next week all about the university admissions process so I might find out then. DS started the year with target grades based on GCSE results and there has been a report home each term with a "working at" grade based on internal exams (or tests as we like to call them here).

It's not something that's causing much concern here because the standard offers for the places he is looking at are lower than what's on his report sheet. Unless he goes into a spectacular tail spin next year or becomes more ambitious it's not something that is likely to cause a problem for us.

They'll just be based on end of year 12 exams surely, whether those exams are optional external AS or internal (probably past AS papers). Anyone with a score that converts to a 90% UMS gets an A star prediction.

Titchy - apparently not, at many schools! A sort of best guess based on end of year internal exams , homework and mid term tests etc seems to be the main system. But few schools make it clear what their system actually is, and bizarrely most parents I talk to about it have no idea. (Myself included up to now!)

DS1's school use the exams at the end of Y12 to make the grade predictions for UCAS, whether AS or internal exams.

Interestingly/controversially, according to UCAS, only 25.5% of candidates meet or exceed their predicted grades www.ucas.com/file/71796/download?token=D4uuSzur

That was an interesting read (the study on actual vs predicted grades) or it was at least until my eyes started to glaze over. I give you:

"For most predicted grade profiles, the chances of missing by two or more points decreases with higher predicted attainment. For example applicants predicted BBB are more likely to miss by two points than those predicted ABB, who are in turn more likely to miss by two points than those predicted AAB. This pattern continues up to those predicted A*AA. "

and

For all A level grade profiles the proportion of applicants who
missed their grades was higher when prior GCSE attainment was lower.

Based on end of year 12 exams here too. DD has done AS exams in 2 subjects and has internal "mock" exams at the end of the month in the other 2.
From talking to her teachers at parents' evening it sounds as if they'll combine results with general attainment over the year - so a dc who has consistently achieving high As may be given an A star prediction.

DD informs me that they have been told they can be given predictions only 1 grade higher than the results they get from AS/end of year tests, and then only if their teachers have evidence of consistently higher attainment over the year.

As level in one subject for UCAS form, the rest are going to be end of year exams.

It's quite straightforward in ds1 school.

So I am gathering that each school just makes up whatever system they want.........? There is no regulation?

Definitely no regulations. They use their best judgement and so does the young person when choosing the right course and university to suit their abilities. Knowing where you stand at the end of y12 exams is a good steer as others have said.

For DD (Y13) it was based on her AS grades - they all did formsl ASs in all subjects even if they wouldnt count this year - plus what the teacher thoight about their capability and commitment.

Yes each school does their oen thing but it will be based on both Teacher Adsessment and any formal exams I would think.

DD's school are still doing AS levels.

Another of my signature stupid questions: when do schools give us the predictions? Is it not till the August AS release date?

I think DD got hers in September?

I have a feeling we've been told September too for predicted grades.

Thanks both!