Year 12 Parents - How does your school calculate predicted grades for UCAS?

[janinlondon]

Help me, I'm drowning! I am being told different things by different parents in different schools. So am resorting to the mighty power of Mumsnet and anecdotal evidence. Please can current year 12 parents (those of us with no/very few AS exams) give me a clue on how your school does their predictions?

I am glad I found this thread as we are having the same predicament with predicted grades this year (DD currently in year12). How did it pan out in the end, were the grades better or worse than expected for your DC? I would be grateful for the feedback.

I'd ask the school in question as schools are going to assess predicted grades in different ways.

DD sat internal exams based on what they'd studied so far. On the assumption they'd revised sufficiently most were given predicted grades very close to what they'd achieved in the internal exams. Her results were ABB, but she was very close in two so two grades increased. She asked for a resit in other subject and has bought books to read in hols, so increased a grade as well.

Thanks ifonly4. Our school does not give the option for re-sits and in any case, she could not have had better grades, as she got 4 A in the internals (the maximum they could get for these exams). I really hope the reason why they are not giving out the predictions now is to ensure that the grade boundaries are in line with this year's A level boundaries.

sorry, I wrote in the wrong thread, please ignore my comment above.

Year 12 DS has just taken external exams in all 4 A level subjects. The one he’s dropping counts as an AS; the others were just done for exam practice and to support predicted grades. He wants to do Psychology at university - entry requirements at his choices so far are mostly AAB or ABB. Throughout Yr 12 he’s been getting mostly Bs with a sprinkling of As - however his Bs are nearly always a couple of marks off an A. He’s got a potentially very good UCAS form - lots of work experience, volunteering, DoE Gold etc. and is passionate and informed about Psychology.

He got 4 Bs in the results today, with an A in one paper. So my question is - is there any point in him applying this year to his chosen unis if his predicted grades are BBB? Would it be better to wait until he’s got his A level results and then apply, as he wants a gap year anyway? I think he could get As - he works very hard and he’s a slow burner - always does better in the second half of a course. But there’s obviously a chance he won’t. I think he’s a classic borderline student to be honest. He’s got an interview with a tutor tomorrow to discuss, but I wondered what MN thought?

I would ask the school to confirm what his predicted grades will be, if he’s close to the A border, I would hope the school would consider at least one A prediction.
Then follow the tried and tested ucas spread of a 1-2 aspirational, 2-3 realistic and 1-2 safety choices, deferred for a year if that’s why he wants.

If he does better than expected in the actual exams, your DS could look at changing up via Adjustment, or taking a year out and applying with his grades, but at least by applying this year he will have all the paperwork and references in order.

He’s spoken to his college and they’ve advised him waiting to apply until after A Levels. Apparently he’s a borderline B/A student but will be predicted 3 Bs even though his teachers believe he could get As.( I guess they’re saying they’re not sure enough to predict them though).

He will go to the UCAS prep sessions this year and the college provide post Yr 13 sessions for those applying post A Level. He is having w gap year anyway. DS seems happy with this - so we’ll go with the advice I think.

A combination of exams (three sets based on old AS papers - after Easter in year 12, end of year 12 & then another set in September of year 13), performance through the year & teachers' 'feel'.

e.g. DD has had ABB, ABC & another set to go - talking to the teachers at the end of term unless there's some major change with the next set they will predict A*A and either an A or B for the last one.

Lots of her friends did unexpectedly & spectacularly badly in the end of year exams & lots are now considering taking gap years. I think the system is ridiculous & unreliable - the balance between aspirational but realistic. dd has decided to apply next year after she gets her actual results.

@LaBelleSauvage123 - One useful tip that I read on TSR was to get your DD to ask her teacher, "What would I need to do between now and [date] in order to get a prediction of an A in your subject.

@Laniakea - 2 years back my DD applied with Astar A B. She was rejected by the 2 courses with entry requirements of Astar A A but got offers from the AAA courses. She ended up getting Astar AA, considered taking a year out to reapply, but decided to go with her firm of AAA.

That should have read - predicted grades of Astar AA

I think the college set predicted grades as soon as they go back- to get As DS would have had to have got them more consistently throughout Yr 12. I’m confident that he’ll get at least ABB if not AAB next year and so is he. ( why do I immediately want to erase that sentence? 🤔😬