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Brexit
Original poster

How do we get back into the EU after Brexit?

28 replies

CurlyWurlyTwirly · 30/10/2019 10:05

Despite all the information out there about the harm Brexit will do to the UK, I fear that The Tories will be voted back in and the UK will leave.
After 5 years of misery I hope they are voted out, once the electorate expect the reality of post Brexit life.
Do you think we can get back into thé EU?
I don’t think we will have as favourable terms, but I hope that having been in already; then going back is a possibility?

OP posts:
MockersthefeMANist · 30/10/2019 10:09

As a net contributor, they'd love us back, but under the rules, our rebates and opt-outs would lapse and could only be renegotiated if all 27 members agreed.

So we would be committed to join the Euro (with no date specified) but on the bright side, like Croatia, we could keep our blue passports.

SingingLily · 30/10/2019 10:22

Both the UK and the EU will look very different in a matter of just a few years. If anyone wants to start a campaign to join the EU once we've left, I'd be interested to hear the arguments in favour but we none of us can be certain until then what we would lose and what we would gain by joining again.

Original poster
CurlyWurlyTwirly · 30/10/2019 10:27

@singingLily
In what way do you think thé EU will change? Better or worse?

OP posts:
SingingLily · 30/10/2019 10:41

I can only think about its current problems - Italy's economic position, Germany at risk of entering recession (the woes of the car industry are not insignificant) and the fact that Mario Draghi has handed over the ECB to Christine Lagarde. Ursula Von der Leyen does not enjoy a stellar reputation among her former ministerial colleagues in the Bundestag.

The EU might overcome these. It might not. However, it is just about to undergo changes in leadership and set a new budget. At this point, I don't know what the EU's priorities will be. What are your thoughts on this?

catlady3 · 30/10/2019 10:43

What brexit? I'll believe it when I see it.

SayOohLaLa · 30/10/2019 10:53

If the Tories split their vote with the Brexit Party there may be fewer Tory MPs after the election than there are even now. I can see us being left with a hung parliament and someone like the LibDems or Greens holding the balance of power, which reduces the chance of Brexit happening.

Original poster
CurlyWurlyTwirly · 30/10/2019 10:55

Well I live in France and it has its own problems.
Bloated welfare state.
Huge restrictions to setting up your own business.
However speaking to other Europeans; the Brexit mess has put off other nations from considering leaving the EU.

OP posts:
SingingLily · 30/10/2019 11:00

The great pity is that the EU had a golden opportunity to take stock and look at reform. Even JC Juncker once published a five-path plan that acknowledged that this might be welcomed. Had it done so, things might have been very different now for the UK as well as France (which I love).

LochJessMonster · 30/10/2019 11:02

the Brexit mess has put off other nations from considering leaving the EU. I imagine once we do it and sort out any deals and trade agreements etc, many other countries will follow.
They are just waiting for us to do it first so they can avoid the same mistakes.

SingingLily · 30/10/2019 11:17

the Brexit mess has put off other nations from considering leaving the EU.

They're unlikely to be blessed Confused with such world-class politicians like ours. However, I am so grateful for a sensible non-partisan Brexit thread (at least, so far!) that I don't wish to derail.

If I thought the EU would take serious note of our departure and use that as a cautionary lesson, I'd be inclined to wait and see how it responded. However, both Ursula VDL and Emmanuel Macron are arch-federalists and Angela Merkel is too busy fighting crocodiles on her own doorstep to inject a note of caution.

OP, what is the general view of Macron where you live?

LazyDaisey · 30/10/2019 11:23

“They are just waiting for us to do it first so they can avoid the same mistakes.”

Nah, they waited for UK to try, saw the absolute shit show just attempting to leave made of us and said fuck that.

Cuddling57 · 30/10/2019 11:40

Yes I think going back would always be a possibility but the terms would change. It would be impossible to know as both we and them would look completely different.

havingtochangeusernameagain · 30/10/2019 11:44

I think originally there was some talk of renegotiating with the EU if there was a vote to leave wasn't there - which may have caused some sort of rethink/taking stock. While the Coalition and then Conservative government followed austerity and didn't invest in infrastructure, I think there was a lack of understanding in the EU about the sheer level of immigration into the UK and the effect it was/is having on certain areas of the country. However, the UK could have introduced measures to restrict immigration and didn't. So there's blame on both sides. But despite really wanting to stay in the EU I have no doubt that there are problems with it, which it appears to be too arrogant to accept. The problem is that it's the UK that's thrown its toys out of the pram and the UK has a reputation for not being good Europeans (one which I don't think is entirely fair as we actually do tend to comply with EU laws) - had any other country done the same thing, it would have been taken more seriously.

All that said, if we were to have a more moderate government from 13th December, they could go back to the EU and say we can use May's deal because we are going to stay in the CU and SM, so we don't need the removal of the level playing field and we don't have to worry about the NI-only backstop because the UK as a whole will be in the CU and SM. Can't see the EU objecting, as it would still get a lot of our money and save a lot of hassle besides.

And if we had ongoing regulatory alignment, if we did ever decide we wanted to join the fold again, having complete legal harmonisation would make it easier.

PaddyF0dder · 30/10/2019 11:47

We can reapply whenever we want. We probably just need to wait for all the Brexit voting boomers to die off first though.

MilkTrayLimeBarrel · 30/10/2019 11:49

No - never. They would impose even more restrictions on the UK, such as compulsory Euro, etc.

Wimbledonna · 30/10/2019 12:21

I think if we ever do Leave, the EU will crack on with "more Europe". This may include plans for an EU army, EU wide taxation policies etc. Rejoining will then be a very hard sell indeed, especially as the monthly membership fee will be even higher.

Cliveo · 30/10/2019 14:14

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MissDew · 30/10/2019 14:17

We can reapply whenever we want. We probably just need to wait for all the Brexit voting boomers to die off first though.

Wish the vote had been put off in the first place for them all to be dead. Including Rupert Murdoch.

Original poster
CurlyWurlyTwirly · 30/10/2019 14:20

OP, what is the general view of Macron where you live?

Basically he is hated by the French by reneging on his Election promises. But to be honest I actually don’t watch French TV, so I’m not so au fait with French politics. ( I do however speak French, but still feel very British / European)

OP posts:
LochJessMonster · 30/10/2019 14:38

MissDew You'd be waiting 70+ year for me to die off. Isn't just baby boomers who want us out.

SingingLily · 30/10/2019 17:23

We can reapply whenever we want. We probably just need to wait for all the Brexit voting boomers to die off first though.
*
Wish the vote had been put off in the first place for them all to be dead. Including Rupert Murdoch.*

Charming.

Looks like I spoke too soon when I said how grateful I was to see a sensible non-partisan thread about Brexit. It's numpty comments like this that make it impossible to have a grown-up conversation about it.

Sorry, OP, you did your best. Appreciate the insight about M. Macron, however. That's pretty much the view of my French relatives too. If I ever want to learn a few new words, I just mention his name Smile

Peregrina · 31/10/2019 07:01

It depends on how far down the road to being a vassal state of the USA that we have gone. Rejoin within five years possible, if we haven't gone too far down that road.

missclimpson · 31/10/2019 07:10

I had a long talk with the U3A students that I teach in France. Basically, they said that they though Macron was too much talk and not enough action, but they would probably vote for him again as the choices would be exactly the same.
I do watch French news and spend quite a lot of time talking about politics in my classes. My students (aged from 35 to 80) are aghast at the political situation in the UK.

bellinisurge · 31/10/2019 07:20

We are pissing away a sweet deal. We'd never get one as good.

Mistigri · 31/10/2019 07:23

Basically he is hated by the French by reneging on his Election promises.

This isn't correct I don't think (NB: also British in France, but with politically-engaged teenagers so I follow French politics).

He has kept a lot of his promises (more so than many governments and it's only halfway through his term ) but because many of his voters were more anti Le Pen than pro Macron, they didn't necessarily support his platform in the first place.

He is popular in big cities (hugely popular where my student DD lives). Unpopular in much of rural France. Your view of his popularity will depend where you live.

As for the U.K. rejoining after Brexit I think there is quite a high chance that if Macron is still president (and right now he looks more likely than not to get a second term) he will block this.