The likely, immediate consequences of a no-deal Brexit

[ltk]

No Deal now looks both imminent and likely (though not inevitable).

So, what are the known, immediate consequences? There must be a factual answer to this, yet it still seems to dissolve into Leave/Remain opinions. (It'll be a great opportunity to reinvent our country/ it'll be civil unrest and shortages).

So, Day 1 of No Deal Brexit, what changes?

Cuz I may be ignorant, but I still don't get the overall short term implications. I thank you all in advance for enlightening me!

Following as I'm clueless too - it's all so bloody confusing

No one really knows. There have been many dire predictions based on known facts. Unfortunately chaos can't be modelled or predicted. It is, by it's very nature, unpredictable.

The unintended consequences and knock on effects are likely to be shocking.

We must know something! Like, Day 1, all those EU passports will suddenly need processing at ports of entry like any other country not requiring a visa (a 3 or 6-month entry). That will cause delays and perhaps a number of refusals. Right?

Every single international legal agreement we have stops. We drop out of Every trade agreement with third countries that we made via our EU membership.
We are trying to get some of all the above rolled over or built back in. Trying and not getting it all done in time.
After 29 March/23:00 we will be in a weaker position fit negotiating anything.
The NI border is an effing nightmare with No Deal. We currently have a legal obligation to avoid a hard border. The absence of a hard border works because we are both in the EU. We leave, that ends. With no magical technology in place to avoid a hard border. We will be breaking our word on GFA. Which gives Ireland the right to do the same. And any future economic partner to see us as the kind of country that doesn't keep its word.

No, right now no one knows anything as a 'no deal' is currently a game of chicken

I mean that seriously and not because I voted Remain. If you go on civil service jobs they are currently recruiting hundreds of jobs.

What will likely happen is that there will be an agreed extension/delay - all the people will be recruited to carry out the literally mountains of paperwork and agreements.

I am (and everyone I know) expect an extension.

We only get an extension if the EU member states (all of them) agrees.

That's pretty much what I expected to hear. Depressing and confusing.

I'm a bit worried I'll be stuck in the UK! Only got an EU ID card, no passport. I hope it'll be OK for the first year or so though as we are allowed to use ID cards to apply for settled status.

Very little fresh fruit and veg in the shops for a few weeks. Though exotic fruit should be OK?

I imagine they will all be very happy to give us an extension though

I'm guessing other countries are hoping we can stop being twats if they do so

... and if what Bellini and Laurie mention isn't scary enough, there's always the joyful prospect of the Civil Contingency Act and/or martial law.

An extension to A50, although infinitely preferable to no deal, will only prolong the uncertainty.

But at least give people time to plan/get dual citizenship/upskill etc. (Well the lucky/young and healthy ones anyway)

As you can see as per usual the Germans are way ahead of us in preparing for Brexit. This article gives you an idea of what they expect to happen m.spiegel.de/international/europe/german-economy-and-policymakers-prepare-for-no-deal-brexit-a-1248840.html

Exotic fruit won't be exempt if (if) there are issues as our trade deals with the countries that supply them are via the EU. The only fresh produce that probably won't be effected is that we produce ourselves (so rhubarb and cabbages in late march for fruit and veg). Petrol shortages and traffic chaos in Kent (a large cabbage producing area) could cause issues with these.

However this is still just speculation and as said above who knows what is going to happen

One thing we can be sure of is that it won't be easy.

As you can see as per usual the Germans are way ahead of us in preparing for Brexit. This article gives you an idea of what they expect to happen m.spiegel.de/international/europe/german-economy-and-policymakers-prepare-for-no-deal-brexit-a-1248840.html

I somehow doubt that the 'head of Germany's central customs office' really said that German companies would have to pay British VAT on imports.

It's not just Germany who have actually been planning for No Deal, AFAIK all EU countries have. They are stepping it up week on week too.

For example, all uk citizens in the Netherlands revived a letter in the second week of January explaining what will happen to them in the event of no deal. It didn't quite say "don't worry, we'll look after you" but that was the gist.

Nobody knows for sure. As supermarkets & NHS have stockpiled there may be some breathing space with food and medicine. Problems are -

1. Vast numbers of civil servants are away from normal business working on Brexit stuff. Normal business is suffering.
2. Companies will relocate. Big companies like Airbus, car manufacturers and banks will be hit hard. We don't know how many will leave. Some have already left. Lower tax take would mean raising taxes, lowering benefits and services.
3. Less ability to negotiate good trade deals as we will not be in a trading bloc..
4. Higher tariffs on food & goods that we use. Up to 22% extra tariffs on some goods have been estimated.
5. No real say in world issues.
6. More customs staff and checks needed with inevitable delays.
7. Irish border problem would have no easy solution / possible violence.
8. Loss of staff in key industries like NHS.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/30/food-prices-to-finance-what-a-no-deal-brexit-could-mean-for-britain

And the British Pound could drop but nobody can predict by how much. Estimates of 10% but who knows? So possibly more expensive holidays & getting less goods for your pound.

uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/pound-easily-drop-10-2019-no-deal-brexit-100307826.html

We are actually choosing to make ourselves more irrelevant on the world stage, no longer with influence or decision making power in the largest economic bloc in the world.

SonEtLumiere... that's a great concrete example. Thanks for that list, Littlespaces.

It is sobering!!

@Camomila can you get an EU passport? If so, spend money to expedite the process. It’ll be well worth it.

An immediate consequence is having to get 2 international driving permits, one for Spain and one for the rest of Europe.

Very few PO's issue them, for me its 2.5hr round trip.

£ almost certain to drop to below parity with euro.

But whatever Mays says, she will not allow a no-deal, it would wreck her party and risk a Corbyn Govt, something she will try and avoid at all costs.

This explains possible downside of WTO trading.

theconversation.com/no-deal-seven-reasons-why-a-wto-only-brexit-would-be-bad-for-britain-102009