The likely, immediate consequences of a no-deal Brexit

[ltk]

No Deal now looks both imminent and likely (though not inevitable).

So, what are the known, immediate consequences? There must be a factual answer to this, yet it still seems to dissolve into Leave/Remain opinions. (It'll be a great opportunity to reinvent our country/ it'll be civil unrest and shortages).

So, Day 1 of No Deal Brexit, what changes?

Cuz I may be ignorant, but I still don't get the overall short term implications. I thank you all in advance for enlightening me!

if no deal on 29.3.19, my predictions for 30.3 to 7 April (and beyond):

Lorries... this whole lack of ECMT permits, whatever they are called. UK may choose not to check lorries entering from EU, but EU will check lorries entering from outside EU. So OpStack on our side of channel. Ferry services running late, goods being transferred at EU ports onto other lorries authorised to operate in EU, all sorts of schedule delivery disruptions.

Starting after about 10 working days: Factory assembly lines in EU just stopping due to lack of parts (made in UK); followed swiftly (within 2 months) by cancelling those orders from UK suppliers & (within 4 months) massive job losses in the UK manuf. sector.

(if Uk does let EU goods without checks or tariffs etc, but still checks r-world goods). if sustained more than 2-3 months, Several cases being launched with WtO by non-European countries about UK violating WTO rules & giving EU preferential treatment outside a trade agreement.

Fisheries: suddenly couldn't land most their catch in EU or get it shifted in time; literally tonnes of rotting fish, or fish that would have been very high grade going into other products instead, being dumped in UK for peanuts prices, or degraded value in EU. Would lead to mass redundancy & sector downsizing within 5months if not resolved.

Within a month, Lots of news stories about UK tourists & some UK nationals resident in EU being caught out by roaming charges, wrong driving license, lack of medical insurance.

Lots of extra activity at ports as emergency stock ferries arrive and there is oversupply in some types of goods. Warehouse storage in Uk will continue at or over official capacity.

After about a week, News stories about panic buying.

Plus I think a lot of legal fudges that allow planes to fly etc. without meeting the actual legal rules that should enable those things to happen.

Sustained: Constant constant constant news about the chaos & disruption in these & other sectors. Lots of news stories about organisations breaking what few rules may or may not apply (employment, trade, etc.) Huge numbers of small UK businesses caught up in the mess who had no idea they would be affected.

WTO rulesrequire checks between different Customs regimes.
EU rules require customs checks at their border

THerefore Ireland will be Chaos
and Kent will be chaos
all else will follow from that

any Brit in the EU dumb enough to be relying on EHIC for their healthcare still is in for a nasty surprise leave voting Spanish residents

{Plus I think a lot of legal fudges that allow planes to fly etc.}
The EU have already made provisions that even in a 'no deal' situation planes can fly and ships sail for 9 or 12 months under EU cover but there are restrictions set up so IIRC UK planes can only travel point to point, and not hop about (say Berlin to Paris). These 'leniencies' can be withdrawn by the EU at any time.

Lorries... this whole lack of ECMT permits, whatever they are called. UK may choose not to check lorries entering from EU, but EU will check lorries entering from outside EU. So OpStack on our side of channel. Ferry services running late, goods being transferred at EU ports onto other lorries authorised to operate in EU, all sorts of schedule delivery disruptions.

Nope. The EU have already confirmed UK lorries will be able to drive in the EU until the end of the year in the event of no deal.

And it's not really our lorries driving in the EU that's the real issue - it's EU lorries driving in the UK. 80% of our international road freight is moved by vehicles registered in EU27. We can just let them in without permits if we want.

LeClerc
I'm pretty sure that the EU's offer is conditional on the UK acting in full reciprocation
which is NOT what the ERG are agreeing to .....
there is still a chance that JRM will utterly screw the country over

plenty
The EU have already confirmed UK lorries will be able to drive in the EU until the end of the year in the event of no deal.
Link please
as again I'm pretty sure its a reciprocal

Yes, it's reciprocal, and as it's entirely in our interests that we reciprocate then that's not an issue. Unless deliberately banning all but a few thousand of our vehicles from Europe and deliberately preventing EU vehicles delivering anything to us is on somebody's agenda of course...

@JingMahBucket hollow laugh I have an expired Italian passport, I've been phoning the Italian consulate almost every morning since before Christmas - no luck. I called the police station in my home town in Italy- they could do me an appointment in July. Finally I had to fly to Italy the day before my passport expired and the nice commune lady did me an old style paper ID card in 48h as an emergency. Cost me £300 as I took my 2 year old along. When we get back home I'll continue phoning the consulate but at least I'm not IDless for now (I don't drive so I literally wouldn't have had any ID)...I've probably complained on a few threads about my ID saga.

(On the plus side my Nonna is having a great time seeing her GGS due to Brexit :) )

Watch out for flights!

www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/brexit-blue-air-flight-cancelled-romania-liverpool-airport-airline-travel-a8779261.html

Fishesaplenty
and as it's entirely in our interests that we reciprocate then that's not an issue.
FOTFLMAOPMPL
Brexit is not in our interests
therefore all other logical goes out the window too

This explains some of the food industry problems:

www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2018/07/27/this-is-what-no-deal-brexit-actually-looks-like

ECMT fiasco. I dunno. Hmm. Lots of news says otherwise. Including tweet RHA sent out 9 hrs ago about need for thousands more ECMTs in case of No Deal.

.....

Spoilt for choice, snippets on the ECMT story.

...amid six months of expected chaos at Britain’s channel ports in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

EU, America and China will all get new medicines ahead of Britain after Brexit, drug company boss warns

We don't seem to understand without being part of the EU we lose status and other countries can do what we do, we are not irreplaceable.

www.theguardian.com/world/2019/feb/14/dutch-pm-on-brexit-uk-waning-country-too-small-stand-alone-mark-rutte

Likely total loss of status as the financial capital of Europe

www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/business/2019/feb/15/anxiety-running-high-london-future-financial-centre-brexit

Easy way to think of it is that we have over a thousand agreements with the EU and via the EU with third countries. All of them will cease immediately at 11pm on 29 March 2019.

So if you take that as a starting point, i.e. we have NOTHING, then every single no deal scare story is true. At least, the ones that have been officially confirmed by the Government.

So that's the worst case scenario dealt with.

The reality is more complicated, and less clear. Why? Because there are over 10,000 (yes, ten thousand!) civil servants working on nothing but Brexit, trying desperately to cobble together whatever they can to patch the holes left by all the agreements we'll have left.

Some of the fixes will work. Some of them will turn out to be junk. Much of the stuff won't even have been addressed. But it means the real situation will be an undefinable amount "less bad" than the worst case scenario.

So could there be food shortages, medicine shortages, problems with travel, queues at ports, a dramatic plunge in the pound, etc. etc?

Yes, absolutely.

Will there be food shortages, medicine shortages, etc.?

Anyone who tells you definitely one way or the other is lying.

The only thing we know for cast-iron certainty is that we lose every agreement we currently enjoy as EU members. After that, it's a toss-up depending on how much gets done in the last 36 days.

And anyone who says "nothing will change" is lying so hard their tongue will turn black.

I read that May sent a minister to discuss a future trade deal with Japan. The UK representative was offended when the Japanese would not offer him exactly the same deal as that just signed with the EU. The total cluelessness would be hilarious if it wasn't so frightening.

1. The trade deal took years of negotiation with the EU.

2. Why would the 3rd largest economy in the world (Japan) give the UK the same deal as the largest trading bloc in the world (The EU and partners)? Outside the EU we are now a bunch of islands off the coast of Europe which has lost the leverage and status we had within a huge bloc.

Apparently we also irritated the Japanese by not having competent people present who would be able to continue negotiations after this first meeting . So basically we look like amateurs as we missed opportunities to build relationships and don't seem to have the first clue at what we are doing.

It would seem so.

🙄

It's unbelievably awful. Embarrassingly so.

We will be a mere flea on the arse of Mankind, forced to take whatever bits we can scavenge, inevitably the worst deals with the worst people for the least-wanted things.

We still had some status as a part of the EU, but without that buffer, I think our rich and powerful 'leaders' 🙄 will quickly be forced to realise that we are not owed anything. We are not respected or feared or particularly admired, and striding about the world demanding things will get us nowhere. It's as if in their sheltered ivory halls May and her ilk missed the crucial modern history lesson with the normal kids, and still think we have a 'glorious empire'. Left to this mob, we'll quickly become the 51st State of the US, picked clean of assets and no more than Trump's whipping boy.

From hero to zero. My god how arrogant we are, and how painful our fall will be. I feel desperately sorry for our kids and the vulnerable. Wealthier people have a buffer against the worst effects, for a while at least. The poorer and sick will have none. And this is a government with very little compassion or care - as we see daily, and as the UN themselves have pointed out several times.

There is not a country in the world that can quite believe what we are doing to ourselves in this sorry episode of The Rise and Fall of Britain. And thanks to our disastrous handling of just about everything, there will be little pity for us.