Who honestly thinks we'll end up with no deal and why?

[Bearbehind]

I just don't think it's going to happen.

It's simply too damaging.

No government is going to take us over the cliff edge knowing what a catastrophe it will be.

All that will happen is there will be a u-turn on SM/CU citing the EU as being meanies for not letting us have our way and that will be it.

Does anyone else honestly see us jumping off the cliff?

Yes, by accident, and the blame will be attached firmly to the EU for 'bullying' us.

It shouldn’t happen, but I can’t see a sequence of events that would mean it doesn’t.

I really hope not, but I'm afraid that it could somehow happen by accident too. It's terrifying.

Hopefully, common sense will prevail, and the politicians will be motivated more by how history will judge their long term legacy than by whether or not they'll get voted out at the next election. Sometimes, conscience has to come before self-interest.

Common sense seems to be in woefully short supply. Has Theresa May done anything that she hasn't codged up? Although codge ups or not, she does manage to survive.

I agree the possibility of no deal is beyond absurd.

But I am certain no deal is what Jacob Rees-Mogg and co genuinely want. Worryingly the ERG does seem to carry the balance of power. So this makes it possible - 60: 40 as Liam Fox said.

So yes I do think it's a real possibility. We could genuinely revert to WTO rules in a few months time - external tariffs would immediately make all EU food and goods prohibitively expensive for many.

The only thing that comforts me is that when two parties want to reach a deal they generally do.

The difficulty there lonely is the hopeless split in the Tory party. I think had TM got her Cabinet to agree to her Chequers deal there would have been a starting point with the EU, even though it was too little, too late.

I think trusting the Tories to stand us well in this situation is a dangerous tactic.

Theresa is still relying on the Chequers bollox, and there doesn't seem to be a Plan B. Which does make "no deal" a possibility.

And that seems to be what they're actually preparing for, in as much as any prep is being done at all.

I agree that it feels relatively unlikely, because it's shambolic and destructive to a magnitude we simply don't associate with UK governments.
But when you've got a minister like Liam Fox saying it's 60% likely, you need to take the possibility seriously.

I think the probability is still low, because the numbers in parliament aren't there. The likelihood is that May will eventually back down and concede to the EU, probably with some face-saving deal, which parliament will vote for because most of them are spineless but not suicidal.

The risk is that there is no deal due to incompetence and brinkmanship. Obviously with this government that's a risk you have to take seriously. It's still not odds on though.

The idea that you should take anything seriously because Liam Fox says it is laughable.

The Government alerting the UK public to the unavoidable consequences of what a No deal or 'walking away' scenario actually entails is long overdue. This should have been made clear two years ago.

However some Leavers are still saying it is a viable alternative, it isn't.

Could it still happen? I hope for the sake of the country that the chances are slim, but I have little if any real confidence in our current Government.

The only viable courses of action are a deal, which will be worse than our current deal with the EU or remain.

The problem lies in that the sort of deal acceptable to the EU, is not acceptable to Brextremists who are in power in the UK.

A deal can be don't but the likes of JRM, BJ, Davis, Fox won't allow it. But they are all rich and insulated from the consequences.

I think it because we haven’t got a deal, time is running out and no one has a plan for what to do.

If it happened there would be riots that would make the poll tax and Brixton ones look like a minor scuffle. Any government who caused that would be gone the next day. So, no. Having said that, this current lot are a bunch of bloody idiots and cowards like no other I’ve known.

Rich, insulated from the consequences and will disappear off stage whenever they like just lok at Cameron.

We have polluted seas, the earth is overheating, we have gross wealth and abject poverty. Humans don’t seem to be able to apply logic and control the situations for the best of humanity. Brexit is just another example of things spiralling out of control.

A deal can be don't but the likes of JRM, BJ, Davis, Fox won't allow it.

I really want to see these people thoroughly discredited, and then no one will admit that they believed them.

Yes, by accident, and the blame will be attached firmly to the EU for 'bullying' us.

I find this pretty likely.

And I find the idea of May panicking, begging for an extension in a 'dog ate my homework' kind of way, and then some fudged transition agreement, equally likely.

Having had some conversations with my MP ref Brexit, he has no real understanding about what the EU does, customs or the SM.

So its very possible many MPs would be happy with a no deal situation, safe in the belief "we ll just go back to pre EU days and trade on WTO terms, after all we managed in the 70's"

I have no doubt that he EU is going to blamed what ever happens because they haven't let us do exactly as we please.

But hard core Leavers have had 40 years moaning about the EU so they are well versed in it.

It's now just whether they moan about the adverse effects of no deal or BINO.

And as BINO has a lot less repercussions it's just seems a no brainer to me.

It will probably happen because a) it's the default outcome and b) it's what the right wing of the Conservative Party actually wants, and they have had it all their own way so far.

Might the EU be able unilaterally to extend A50 to buy themselves more time? Everyone says 'No, that's not possible', and that may well be true, but I don't see any other means of damage limitation that doesn't involve the UK government realising its red lines were a mistake - and that doesn't seem to be happening. We'll know more after the October summit. If at that point there's no sign of an agreed Withdrawal Agreement or an A50 extension, it would be a very unwise person who chooses to stay in the UK past mid March.

Where do you suggest all 65 million of us move to Augustarella?

I can't see the EU extending A50 unilaterally being very popular, Agusterella, you know what with half the UK population thinking that they are undemocratic and undermine our country's sovereignty. I'd love A50 to be extended (forever, if possible) but it will have to be a chosen by the British government, not imposed upon it.

BB - I believe that we will pull back before we jump off the cliff edge but there will be some very nerve-wracking months ahead. The whole thing is a disgrace.

There's so little substance to Leave arguments that it's simply inconceivable that we'd destroy our country on the back of those.

I agreee this palaver is an absolute disgrace.