Who honestly thinks we'll end up with no deal and why?

[Bearbehind]

I just don't think it's going to happen.

It's simply too damaging.

No government is going to take us over the cliff edge knowing what a catastrophe it will be.

All that will happen is there will be a u-turn on SM/CU citing the EU as being meanies for not letting us have our way and that will be it.

Does anyone else honestly see us jumping off the cliff?

@Bearbehind

The extent of the foreseeable human calamity means No Deal is not possible save for some sort of accident. Not sure what that would look like.

The thing is that we're not destroying the country on the back of Leaver arguments. There are none, and everyone knows it, Brexiteers more than anyone.

We are destroying the country on the back of the wants and desires of a few ultras (on the right and the left) who see chaos as an opportunity to enrich themselves. We are about to experience disaster capitalism, here in the 'strong and stable' UK.

I'm not a conspiracy theorist, I promise, and if someone had told me that a year ago I'd have laughed in disbelief. But to me there is, now, literally no other explanation.

I think we will get a part-deal Brexit.

The EU will over-play it’s hand as it did with David Cameron. It will totally not be able to cope with the UK.

Then the essentials - flights, money transfer - will be sorted at speed.

If only that were true fennel

Reading the posts today about how people’s are so convinced immigration is the source of all our ills and seeing how nothing will convince those people otherwise is evidence that it’s their views which are also fuelling the leave argument not just the disaster capitalist who stand to profit from the situation.

Well, I suppose I think it's part of the same thing bear. The people who believe that EU immigration is the source of all their ills have been manipulated by those who stand to make a quick buck.

That's why all the talk of 'giving the elites a bloody nose' by voting Leave is so pathetically misguided - the Leave vote, powered in so many cases by a dog-whistle fear of immigration, has given those very 'elites' exactly what they wanted.

I don't know. I could be wrong. I hope I'm wrong, in a way. I am so depressed by the whole thing that sometimes I just want to crawl under the duvet and never come out. This is not the country I thought I knew.

It is truly depressing as it's just a case of damage limitation now.

There's not even any pretence anymore that Brexit will benefit us.

BINO is the least worst option but it's still a shit show that leaves us in a worse position than before with a divided country.

I can't see the EU extending A50 unilaterally being very popular, Agusterella, you know what with half the UK population thinking that they are undemocratic and undermine our country's sovereignty. I'd love A50 to be extended (forever, if possible) but it will have to be a chosen by the British government, not imposed upon it.

@lalalonglegs Desperate situations call for desperate measures - for the EU to impose a temporary A50 extension it wouldn't have to be popular here. Our government's handling of negotiations is already disapproved of by three quarters of the population, but there's nothing we can do to make them change course. So any unilateral action by the EU doesn't have to be popular in the UK, just legal and politically feasible. Unfortunately I'm not sure that it is either of those things, meaning that we can't pin our hopes on Europe to rescue us from our corrupt, extremist and increasingly unaccountable government.

Where do you suggest all 65 million of us move to Augustarella?

@IheartNiles Obviously there is no one-size-fits-all escape plan. Those with non-UK passports will find it relatively easy to get residence elsewhere, and foreign governments are presumably obliged to help their own citizens who are trapped in disaster zones overseas. British passport holders resident in the EU on Brexit day may be allowed to stay if they fulfil certain criteria such as five years' residency. Those resident in the UK, or who have less than five years' residency in the EU and who have a UK passport only, will be undocumented migrants if they find themselves outside the UK on Brexit day. To avoid deportation they should claim asylum, though their chances of success are impossible to predict because of the unprecedented nature of the situation. I will be claiming asylum in France, though others planning to flee the UK before Brexit and not come back, may well choose another country. Of course, the EU may yet announce contingency plans for dealing with Britons in EU countries post Brexit, but the default outcome in the event of No Deal is that they will be undocumented migrants and will be deported unless they can successfully claim asylum. This is according to an article on freemovement.org which I can't link to because the whole piece went behind a paywall some months ago.

@Agustarella

What makes you think the EU may unilaterally extend? Don't see that in A50?

1. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.

I know it's not of the same gravity but in 2001 when lots of the EU where changing currency to the Euro, it was a total farce until about 4 weeks before, no idea about the French franc or Italian lira etc exchange rate was going to be pegged at, how VAT conversion would work, in the end finally at the last minute, it all came together.

I'm terrified of no deal but I just can't believe we could get to that stage.

There are plenty of died in the wool Tory voters (eg my dad) who voted leave but would be aghast at the implications of no deal.

He's booked a nice cruise in May next year and is oblivious to any of the ramifications of no deal.

He thinks they are 'cocking it up' but I really think is in a bubble (as are most of the uk) thinking of course they will sort it.

If they don't the Tory party will be destroyed surely!

No deal. I didn't think we'd get to this point but the fact the Tories are happy to hang their citizens over the cliff edge makes we suspect they'd let people fall.

Critical point is that there are still enough members of the public who believe in no deal and that its all project fear.

A u turn would damage the Tories in the short term. The Tory press and Brexiteers would turn on them - we'd have to go through the same arguments about EU membership all over again. Perpetual naval gazing.

Another prominant Brexit support is leaving the UK

"Sir" Jim Ratcliffe, the UK's richest person and Leave supporter is moving to Monaco.

Doesn't that just tell you it all? Two years after the vote, there should be a long list of people and firms moving here for the opportunities which are going to be presented. If we believe the Leave campaign, that is.

@SacrebleuLondres The EU side seems to have been taken by surprise by our government's unwillingness to achieve No Deal, so it seems likely they would be actively looking for ways to buy a few more months - to recruit customs officials, say, or more time for businesses to wind down their operations in the UK in the absence of a transition period. As to how the EU would achieve this, I don't know. Many people such as yourself, people who have clearly done their homework, say it isn't possible, and I certainly don't know of any loophole that says otherwise. Next month, however, we should hear the outcome of the Harry Shindler case (not sure how the ECJ works but news reports mentioned more information in September) so that might be a potential lifeline if successful.

I guess I'm clutching at straws.

Agustarella, do you mean by our government's willingness to crash out, rather than their unwillingness?

I'm not sure that saying the EU has been taken by surprise is entirely accurate, anyway. If there's one thing that has characterised the "other side", it's been a willingness right from the beginning to think through all the scenarios and work out what would need to happen for each. Hence the EU released their impact assessments months ago and have since added further information for sectors about preparation for No Deal.

By contrast, the UK government is still flogging porkies about how WTO actually works and making out that No Deal will be business as usual unless the "nasty EU" uses it to "bully" us.

No deal is not an option but... our government is incompetent, deeply ignorant and arrogant. They still don't understand how the EU works and the consequences of leaving. So these consequences haven't been explained to the public. At the moment the government is putting itself first - individuals looking after themselves and then the party. As a result a lot of the public still want Brexit and definitely, actively want to crash out.

The country is still split and yes I believe there could be riots but they would be against the EU - EU buildings, institutions and citizens. The government is still shamelessly using the EU and immigration as scapegoats. And the real issues are not being looked at.

I know there are some intelligent MPs out there and some are decent people, too. What are they doing to stop the UK from crashing out?

Agustarella, do you mean by our government's willingness to crash out, rather than their unwillingness?

Thanks @PineappleSunrise, that is exactly what I meant to say! Our government's willingness to crash out, etc.

They will only extend for a democratic change - a second referendum, or a general election. Or if a deal is extremely close.

I think the only alternative to no deal now is a "blind brexit" - parallel backstops for NI and UK.

Does anyone know that No Deal is currently illegal for the government to pursue? Not sure law breaking matters to this lot, but if it means anything it is deep inside a recently passed law.

Does this matter?