Westministenders: Wake up and smell the coffee, shit just hit the fan.

[RedToothBrush]

Since the last update 12 days ago:

1. We have had the proposal to give barista visas. If we are giving out visas for this, what aren't we going to give visas for. Its just the announcement of a lot of red tape.
2. EU Banking and the Medicines agency are moving so they can serve the EU. In the EU. As serving them outside the EU is just weird. This is apparently a punishment for leaving the EU.
3. The number of students applying to become nurses has plummeted due to the removal of bursaries. This is as EU nurses leave.
4. The Brexit department published a couple of graphs promoting staying in the EU.
5. Theresa May said we were unified behind the idea of Brexit in her Easter message
6. The environment is being sacrificed for trade.
7. Turkey apparently has voted to become a dictatorship. This was a vote that Erdogan won by a whisper. His executive will not need scrutiny from parliament. Rather the UK referendum which at 0.6% more than the Turkish one is decisive. Donald Trump has congratulated him for it.
8. Trump has been dick swinging about nukes over North Korea. China are telling the children to behave.

And now we have a General Election.
Well if she can get 434 votes in the HoC tomorrow. That's ANOTHER broken promise. I'm sure its nothing but a formality.

What will Labour do? Support it? To get rid of Corbyn? Corbyn has backed the election. Given Corbyn is in charge, I'm not sure I'd have confidence to say that Labour will all vote for it, even with a three line whip. One Labour MP has already said he will not stand for reelection. (Tom Blenkinsop‏) I suspect there will be more.

Tim Farron has given support to the GE though, so it seems likely it will pass as that's a few of the votes that would be needed to block a GE.

(Note here abstentions do not count to the 434 votes needed.)

Trouble is what would happen if they didn't? Would the government collapse anyway? Might take May's head with it, but...

I guess the good news is that Corbyn will be gone by the end of June.

Otherwise the news is shit I fear. We will vote to give power to the executive with no parliamentary scrutiny. This is about getting rid of any opposition even from within her own party.

How will the campaigning go? Here's a clue:

Tim Montgomerie @montie
Tories want the exln to be about Corbyn and May; LibDems want it to be about Brexit; Labour want it to be about ?

then there is this:
fleetstreetfox‏*@fleetstreetfox*
I wonder what'll happen to the SNP. Polls not too chuffed about 2nd indy ref, Labour screwed... could parts of Scotland go blue again?

there will be lots of this about:
Dan Rebellato‏*@DanRebellato*
^Right. If we don’t want a huge Tory majority, we must all hold our nose and vote tactically. This MUST happen. How to organise that?

and the strategy is this:
Laura Kuenssberg‏*@bbclaurak*
Clear from May and hearing IDS that tories will go after idea of Labour Lib Dem coalition as risky

Council officials are now seeking legal advice over the Gorton By-Election that is scheduled for next month.

One more thing: Does this bury the election expenses row that is brewing and involves May's close adviser Nick Timothy?

Oh and the bottom line?
Alberto Nardelli‏ @AlbertoNardelli
Difference size of Tory majority will make to EU27 negotiating position: 0

Sigh.

Did mothers quiz

Tied green and lib dem

CCHQ Press Office‏*@CCHQPress*
The chaos in @unitetheunion leadership fight is exactly what Corbyn’s coalition of chaos with Lib Dems & SNP would bring to the country

Kevin Schofield‏*@PolhomeEditor*
Eh? CCHQ line tomorrow - 'See that bad weather outside? That's exactly what Corbyn’s coalition of chaos with Lib Dems & SNP would bring.'

Didn't take long. And we ae going to get sick of that line. I hope they over use it. I've seen various CON MPs repeating like parrots. It looks false and stilted.

Lib Dem Membership: 8000 new joins in 48 hours
Now up to 95,000 members. Farron's membership target for 2020 is 100,000.

I tied Lib Dem and Plaid.

Or perhaps it is a classic example of fake news with absolutely no basis in reality in the first place

Sorry Trump
Just posted a news item I thought was interesting.

Steve Backshall makes me irrationally angry. I'm sure he's a great guy.........but I'd take that fish and slap him around the chops with it.

"BigChoc - maybe Sinn Fein will take their seats in an effort to stop Brexit ?"

It is dangerous to say never...but.. The platform Sinn Féin stand on is one where the British jurisdiction in any part of Ireland is an occupation. I couldn't imagine them taking their seats..even to voice against Brexit. They'd also have to take an oath to the Queen of England! Their solution would be to say it is time for the rest of the UK (or rUK) to go off with their Brexit and the whole isle of Ireland to be under the one jurisdiction and in the EU.

But I suppose stranger things have happened.

They also didn't recognise the Irish courts for a long time. They didn't recognise the original Anglo-Irish treaty.

Did anyone see the thing about David Mundell mouthing something when TM was responding to Cooper? Was he really saying Cooper was 'that female doggie', to paraphrase. He is sitting to our left of TM as she is responding to Cooper.

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/yvette-cooper-theresa-may-general-election-pmq-not-honest-uk-voters-cant-believe-word-labour-tories-a7690961.html

Maybe he was saying 'that is a bit rich'.

Thank you Red for that helpful summary re York outer.

Pretty much where my own thoughts were going, too, sadly.

I will most likely keep an eye on the polls and the actual candidates before making a final decision.

'Did anyone see the thing about David Mundell mouthing something when TM was responding to Cooper? Was he really saying Cooper was 'that female doggie', to paraphrase. He is sitting to our left of TM as she is responding to Cooper.'

I've watched it and I'm not sure. He says he said 'leadership pitch' and other people claim he says 'something bitch'. Would someone sitting on the front bench be as silly to mouth something like that knowing it's all on camera? Also he never struck me as being as being that nasty. Who knows!

woman 40 on that list

I got SNP too but as I'm in Wales, difficult. Plaid and Labour tied for second so I shall tactically be voting Labour.

Not really keen on Backshall but does anyone have a picture of Chuka topless? He probably has too much dignity

Clash Any chance you could move to Harrogate in the next 24 hours?

Meant to add, thank you for the Gower summary Red, your thoughts are pretty similar to mine.
Last time round the Labour candidate was poor and the sitting MP had retired. Not sure who will be standing for Labour this time but I think there are two very capable Assembly Members whom should give it a go.

Also I would take a punt that that other topless nature warrior Bear Grylls is a covert Kipper......

MotherofFour be they Welsh dragons ?

I'd be interested to hear James Norton's thoughts on the GE.

Sorry Trump
Just posted a news item I thought was interesting.

It wasn't the posting of the story that i am about. It was the assertion that there was some merit in it after it had been discredited by another poster. If there is anything I have learnt from closely following the Trump situation (feel free to come and join us on the Trump threads) it is that news stories like that one should be carefully questioned and checked before being taken as fact.

woman 40 on that list
Yikes! thanks. Lots of Labour 'beefcake' to choose from BigChoc! Happy to investigate further.

Mitzy!

For statistics geeks, here are YouGov tables & party VI chartsfrom July to now:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BzTTW1ecy-NDOGRmWXRGdi12MkRjbzEwUnVGOHBFb2M3aDJj/view

On Page 4, LibDems have just overtaken UKIP.

A Scots geek on another forum calculated that if the Yougov Scottish figures were consistent across Scotland, then

• the SNP will take Labour’s last rmeianingseat < Labour wipeout ! > and
• the Tories will gain Berwick, Dumfries and West Aberdeen.

In fact, Tories may gain a few more seats if their support is concentrated advantageously.

This is NOT SNP support dropping off, just Unionists concentrating around the Tories and totally dumping Labour as a dead parrot.

Did anyone see that chap who was on the same time as Ann Widdecombe?

It was interesting when she said the countries he had mentioned all had presidential systems. He interjected to say that Germany did not have a presidential style system. Now I know he should probably have waited, but so many times time runs out and thing are left out there uncorrected. She was a bit cross, understandably.

It was good when he said 'you are entitled to your own personal opinions, but you can't have your own personal facts', to paraphrase.

I hope this GE is not going to the equivalent of the referendum.

Scenario on tv or radio: One side saying the earth is flat. Then someone else says it is round (elliptical). Presenter says "that is all we have time for folks, one says it is round and one says it is flat. It is up to you who you believe". All personal 'facts' are equal.

"The date everyone is watching is 8 June – polling day. But 20 May could be when this election is turned on its head, the deadline for the first of at least 14 current Tory MPs to find out if they are to be prosecuted for election fraud. The others, it might be up to 20, or even more, must learn their fate by early June"
.
www.pressgazette.co.uk/how-the-mirror-uncovered-election-fraud-claims-which-could-come-back-to-haunt-theresa-mays-tories-before-polling-day/

Haha mother
I got green and/or Plaid Cymru. Not sure pc are standing at the Essex borders!