Turkey - has it changed anyone's view on EU?

[bkgirl]

There is more reporting and interest in Erdogan and his approach to ruling Turkey.

www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/turkey-coup-live-erdogan-dead-killed-istanbul-ankara-military-take-over-martial-law-latest-updates-a7140371.html

I was wondering if it changed how you feel about the EU ref and Turkeys accession (regardless of how soon or not it happens) or indeed the possible visa free travel?

I think it's underlined how obviously ridiculous all the claims that Turkey would soon be in the EU are. It's so, so far from that.

No one with any knowledge at all of the EU thought that Turkey was going to join in the foreseeable future.

The idea that Turkey was about to join was a blatant lie that could only be disseminated because of widespread ignorance and racism.

The coup attempt hasn't changed anything. Turkey is many decades away from meeting the criteria for joining, if indeed it ever does.

They have only met one of the 35 conditions to entry and have no sign of meeting the other 34 so there is no short-term chance of them joining. I think it is silly that we have given up our right to veto their joining though.

Yes, I agree that Turkey was always a long way away from joining the EU.

The problem remains however that geographically and geopolitically it's of vital strategic importance. So who gets to exert control? Putin? The US? All this has been a long time coming.

Strangely, one person who has some grip on Turkish history is none other than our new foreign secretary.

Strangely, one person who has some grip on Turkish history is none other than our new foreign secretary.

Do you think TM had some advance information from her intelligence service? (Only half joking.)

More importantly, how or will this affect its role in NATO? An affect which may be good or bad, but potentially has further potential to destablise the Middle East.

another one who says no, it's not changed my mind. Turkey is very unlikely to be able to join for a long time, if ever.

It hasn't changed my view at all. The idea of Turkey joining the EU anytime soon was 'leave' propoganda and designed to appeal to the more racist elements of voters. Erdogan's response to the coup - eg further crackdowns on 'dissidents', including journalists, lawyers, etc - will show him in a very poor light and make the country's accession even less likely than before.

Oh, I had forgotten Bojo does have Turkish connections and knows a lot. Yeah, that may have been a huge factor in May's decision - and it makes sense.

Hasn't changed my mind at all - there was never any danger of Turkey joining the EU, so didn't factor in my decision making at all.

There was a poll before the referendum that showed 45% of people believed the claim that Turkey was going to be fast-tracked to EU membership.

I thought Turkey was in NATO. Surely one of the criteria for NATO membership is that your military should not stage a coup?

The whole 'will they/wont they' Turkey deal is of course open to debate, (but its ridiculous to suggest the Visa free deal was "leave propoganda", the deal was done) however, what is important is to understand just how important it was for the turkish 'man on the street' to believe that Erdogan has secured a visa free deal for the common turk.

I was horrified, that the night of the 'coup', the EU council got a very clear but short statement out to the Turkish people, supporting Erdogan (and in effect, supporting the visa deal)

The turkish people have had decades of not being able to afford a passport, having to find almost the equivalent of a years salary to pay for maternity care. Access to Europe, has been the search for a golden fleece, for millions.

My view on the EU council at this exact moment in time is this. The EU Council now have only 2 choices. Either they withdraw the Ankara visa deal, due to Erdogans appalling human rights violations or they support him under the guise of Turkeys 'democratic' politics.

Withdrawing the deal will turn turkish public opinion against Erdogan, however, by removing the vast majority of secular judiciary and military leaders, to re-instate a death penalty for treason (that is anyone speaking against Erdogan...please dont forget the journalists currently imprisioned), he will have huge control over a disatisfied population. Of course he will blame the western EU for duplicity in withdrawing the deal. Sympathy with the Islamic cause will only grow.

Noise from the EU council and EU leaders so far this week, has been one of support for Erdogan and support for his democracy. Will the EU therefore stick to this line and give him his visa free deal believing that to do otherwise, would see Erdogan carry out his threat of opening the borders to Syria and openly support his Islamist brothers?

Either way, IMO, Turkey has simply brought about the death of the EU a little quicker than was anticipated. The EU council are playing dangerous games on a world stage they arrogantly believe they control.

I thought Turkey was in NATO. Surely one of the criteria for NATO membership is that your military should not stage a coup?

Three since they joined NATO.

Greece had a coup, too.
I'm very :( for Turkey.
Before there were 1/2 dozen reasons why there was no risk of Turkey joining EU within 15+ yrs.

I wonder if the apparent staged/fake coup might back fire on Erdogan. How can he justify the instant arrest of so many justices, since when do judges get involved in coup d'etats? Yet real people did die. :(

Erdogan demanding extradition of cleric from USA....how is that going to end up?

Soren You have to be a democracy to be in NATO. If Erdogan weakens democracy, as it is obvious he is doing, then NATO have to decide what they do.

What a load of rubbish Chris, the Turkish visa free ruling was to go along with the fact that they have had a customs union with the EU for decades and it makes it far simpler for the Turks to have visa free access to match this.

The Turkish situation will not hasten the end of the EU and you should stop wishing for it, if you do you have no idea of the ramifications of such an event.

Newsweek said this....maybe he isn't really looking to get into the EU at all
europe.newsweek.com/mideasts-next-dilemma-67847?rm=eu

Someone told me recently that Turkey will release more migrants into
the EU unless it is given EU membership.
Anyone else heard this?

Its a load of rubbish.

Who is this "someone"?

I am sure that 'Turkey releasing more migrants' is a load of rubbish, but with the current instability, I wouldn't be at all surprised if more people decided to try to improve their lot elsewhere.

Erdogan seems to be trying to make Turkey more of an Islamic state, so if anything, I would expect him to want to turn his back on the EU.

This is from the BBC reality check site. This seems a lot of money rpto be spending if the expectation is that Turkey won't join. The UK contribution towards this has been calculated to be £1.2 billion.

"In 2014 the EU agreed to use a total of €11.7bn (£9.1bn) from its seven-year budget 2014-2020 to help seven EU candidate countries - Albania, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia, Turkey, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Kosovo - make political and economic reforms.
Turkey, the largest of the seven countries, will receive a total of €4.5bn over the seven year period. Albania will receive €649m."

The EU will help countries become ready for accession, however as Turkey started negotiating in the 1980s and still has only met on of the 35 conditions that it needs to, it would suggest that its not going to happen any time soon.

I would read that as trying to provide some desperately needed stability in the area, rather than a move towards joining the EU.