UCAS Predicted Grades

[Beedeebee63]

My son had predicted grades of Astar, A, B. He really wanted to go to Warwick or Nottingham but they wanted Astar A, A (W) and AAA (N) with an A in Maths, so he did not put them on his application because B was his predicted grade for Maths so he believed he would be rejected. He put Liverpool & 4 others and got offers from them all. His plan was to do well and apply to W & N through clearing if he did. He smashed his exams getting Astar Astar A. Unfortunately neither University had his course on clearing so he could not apply. He has his place at Liverpool and would have been happy had he only achieved the predicted grades, but now, no thanks to league tables, discussions about connections, or lack of connections in Liverpool’s case, with high end employers etc. which don’t help the situation at all, he doesn’t want to go. He sees his hard efforts to improve his grades to get to a Uni of his choice were a waste of time. I’ve suggested he take a year out (although I’d really rather he didn’t) but he says he doesn’t want to be a year behind. I’ve also suggested he goes and gives it a try for a term, but if he still feels sad about it leave and apply for next year. I think/hope he will go and stay but he is currently so desperately unhappy.

Predicted grades are so unfair, especially when Uni’s still accept students that did not meet their conditional offer grades and students like my son achieve theirs and better! I guess he should have risked putting them on his application and we should have known clearing doesn’t always work. Hindsight, a wonderful thing in an unfair world.

My post isn’t because I think my son should have a place over anyone else, it’s about him being so sad and upset and me therefore wondering if any other parent is dealing with a child going through the same upset / same situation to see how you are reassuring your young one?

I’m sorry, it sucks to see your child upset despite getting such good grades.

Hindsight is indeed a wonderful thing, it seems his application was skewed towards ‘very safe’ rather than ‘strategic’ - I assume he was poorly advised. Nottingham particularly should have been one of his choices.

However his grades are brilliant - and he doesn’t have to think about safe or strategic now. I’d encourage a year out, he’ll have Warwick in the bag by Christmas.

There isn't really such a thing as "being a year behind" once you leave school. People go to uni at all ages and applying for his first graduate job and being 22/33 rather than 20/21 for example won't make a blind but if difference to potential employers.

Well done to your son! He's in a strong position to secure a place on a course he wants starting in 2027. And now he has a year to do something different. A year seems a long time at 18 but it really isn't. I hope it all works out for him.

I would definitely take a year out. He will almost certainly get Warwick especially if he applies early.

In his year out if he gets a job - he will in some ways be ahead of people rather than behind. Work experience is what employers want.

You have my sympathies, OP. It’s hard enough whittling down to 5 choices, and in my opinion dropping down to 2 is bonkers—it should be 3 (aspirational, expected, safe) final choices. It’s so hard to know if you’ll overperform or underperform on the day, even with mocks as guides! @titchy when you talk about being strategic, what is the recommendation? An aspirational and an expected, and leave the safe for clearing? It’s a minefield!

@Beedeebee63 I am not in the same situation but my DD was a long way below her PGs (like, a grade below in each subject) and would not consider retaking; instead she got a clearing place at a uni she had not considered and it was a good outcome.

I agree PGs are a blunt tool and often wrong. More usually tho they are too high for various reasons (teachers are going with "on your best day", students and sometimes parents are pleading for a higher PG etc). Well done to your DS for smashing through his with amazing grades.

It may be that if he had applied to the unis that wanted an A in maths he would not have got an offer with a PG of B. Hard to say now. I would strongly advise him to take a year and apply with grades in hand this autumn. He is very likely to get an offer and ofc will know it is a firm acceptance so can plan accommodation and any other practicalities. There will be lots of others in the same boat. And in the meantime he can hopefully get a job and earn some ££ towards uni.

My only caveat would be as I assume it is a maths-heavy course, it might be worth checking with the admissions teams at the unis (they would be happy to reply to an email) whether they prefer maths UGs not to have taken a year – or if they do, whether there is any work they could do over that year to ensure they keep up their maths skills.

Strategic - used to be 1 aspirational, 2-3 at expected and 1-2 tits-up.

Now I’d suggest 2 aspirational, 2-3 at expected, maybe 1 tits-up option if don’t want the hassle of clearing.

And assuming revision and mocks are going as expected I’d firm one aspirational and insure one expected.

That’s generally, Oxbridge, Imperial and any flavour of med (people, animals, teeth) different strategy applies. Though vet and people med have both been in clearing the last few years.

Congrats to your DS on his excellent grades! It's 100% better to take a year out and apply for stronger unis/courses. Your DS is a customer taking a big financial burden, surely he would want better value for his money? Depending on the course, I would explore Imperial, UCL and Durham with those grades, not just Warwick.

Congrats to your DS on his excellent results. Unfortunately predicted grades can never be 100% accurate and there will always be some students who are disappointed one way or another. It does also sound like he didn't have the best advice regarding the application process, but what's done is done and he needs to look forward now. He has great results and does have options.
I'd agree with those advocating a gap year. Being a year behind isn't really a thing at University. There will be lots of students who for various reasons haven't gone straight after A levels. It isn't like school where everyone is within that same 12 month window. My DC have University friends who are younger, older and the same age and to be honest after the first few weeks when people are first meeting and finding out a bit about each others' backgrounds I don't think it even comes into conversation. I'd encourage him to see a gap year as an opportunity, not in any way a "falling behind". It gives him extra time to think about what he wants to do, and where, if he does something interesting with the year it could be positively advantageous in future employment terms, and if he can put some money in the bank ahead of leaving home then even better!
Yes, come September when most of his friends head off for University he probably will feel a bit left behind, but in the longer term he almost certainly won't and may well come to see benefits.Liverpool is a good University and he'd probably be fine there actually, but given how expensive going to University is now, I think it is worth taking time to be as sure as you can be that you're making the best choice.

Similar happened to my son. His school predicted him BBB and even told him that was aspirational as he wanted to put Exeter as his firm choice (although not for the course he wanted… long story, he changed his mind after the form was submitted). He ended up with A star, A, C and Exeter were unable to change his course as it was full (absolutely fine, his fault at the end of the day) but I was really surprised how little there was available in clearing. He got really lucky and despite absolutely no places being available at his top choice uni on results day, a place did somehow come up the next morning which he’s successfully secured. Unlikely I know as they are top unis but can your son keep checking? People change their minds for all sorts of reasons. Do you know when the cut off is for making decisions? Good luck to him whatever he decides but I totally see his point of wanting the best uni/course for his grades.

Thanks all.
His grades are good and I tell him to remember that above anything else. I don’t think it was a case of poor advice, I think it is a flawed system, that isn’t applied in a fair consistent manner. Sadly because of the situation we have not been able to properly celebrate his achievement, it’s like an elephant in the room.

My concern is he is not engaging in the process to sign up to the course this year as he says he just doesn’t like the thought of it, so I’m currently just waiting for him to either eventually embrace going this year or think what he will do if he doesn’t go. Unfortunately I don’t think he will make good use of his time if he takes a year out and he’ll end up not going at all.

In the meantime other students up and down the country are getting their act together while he is sat feeling sorry for himself. It is just so upsetting.

There is something quite bonkers about applying to a university before actual grades are known. It puts A level students under pressure in addition to doing rhe exams and creates huge amounts of work for university staff. I know alternatives are debated from time to time but the predicted grade system persists. When I went (a long time ago), I was offered 2 x Es at UCL, the University of London's matriculation floor. I can still remember feeling the weight lift when I realised I could do well for myself rather than the system.

It’s tough isn’t it. Mine got rejected from his first choice (27% acceptance rate) and got higher results than his girlfriend who was both given and offer and subsequently accepted despite missing the offer (which was already reduced due to contextual offer - which I 💯 support). It opened on clearing to international students only…so you can go through clearing but only if you can be charged 30k a year instead of 10k.

Fortunately he doesn’t mind where he does his degree, he will work hard and hopefully achieve a first so that he can do a masters at his first choice which will put him in a better position than if he just did the degree at the better uni.

Your son should consider a gap year and deferring his uni place. He has the grades needed for the other unis and could find success during the early applications for next year. If not he still has a place he can attend, and can also get some experience of working full time too.

Or he can make the most of his uni, have fun, get his degree, and use the extra year for a masters like mine is planning.

Firstly, put thoughts of others out of your head. That helps no one.

Secondly why will he not make the most of a gap year? He’s clearly a hard worker who is dedicated to his subject. If he simply works in any kind of job at the very least he’ll earn a few thousand to help him at uni.

Give him time but don’t make him go to Liverpool if it’s not right for him. With his grades he has lots of options.

Out of curiosity, what or who gave him the idea that Warwick would be in clearing for what I assume is a maths subject??

Well done to your DS!

He cannot defer his Liverpool place and reapply. If he definitely doesn’t want to go there, he should decline their offer and think how he can use this next year productively while applying with grades in hand. What courses is he interested in?

It’s too expensive to commit to somewhere that you’re not 100% about.

Will wherever he took his a levels support with his personal statement writing and reference?

I started uni 2 years "late", and did a 4 year course. I was so worried about being behind, but in hindsight there was absolutely no need to be. Everyone takes different paths after school: uni at 18, uni later, not at all, then onto masters or grad schemes or other jobs or travelling, etc, etc. I don't think there's such thing as being behind in adulthood.

I work in HE, i think the system would be easier if everyone applied post results but I can't see the system changing.

Take a year out, work, reapply for next year with grades in hand for the best he can get. He won’t be a year behind as people go to uni at all sorts of ages and he will actually be ahead if he has work experience during that time.

For anyone reading this - you can ask the school to up the predicted grades. I did and they agreed and I achieved them.

Best advice is to take a year out and reapply.
Out of interest which course does he have a place for at Liverpool? It’s a great uni and really good for student life.

The system is that entrance to uni is based on grades achieved - it’s applications that are based on predicted. Hard lesson to learn, but as he didn’t apply to the two unis he actually wanted to go to, they haven’t been able to make him an offer. I think he has been poorly advised not to initially apply to W or N (particularly W) but to rely on clearing if he did better than expected.

You have my sympathy, but I think the bit your DS may not realise is that there will be many doing maths at Liverpool with the same or better grades as he has. If he does there now he will be able to work alongside people who will push him towards working towards a 1st.

We could move to having a university year running Jan to Dec, but then there would be a term's funding gap. Very few universities could afford that, so it would take a significant injection of funding from the government to make the move. There would also have to be adjustments to things like teacher training (you really want teachers qualifying for the new school year) and NHS training posts.
If it was going to be done, postponing summer term 2020 to autumn 2020 would have been a really good time to do it.

And what do you do with a load of unemployed 18 year olds between September and December? CB stops, so hard on low income families, nowhere near enough temp jobs to tide them over, allowing them all to claim UC too expensive, and most overseas students expect to start in the Autumn to tie in with their own country’s education system.

I think the most realistic way to move to post-results applications would be to move A-levels slightly earlier. That seems to be what a lot of countries do, e.g. in Germany I believe 'results day' is late June, uni applications are open until end of July, decisions made over the summer & uni starts late September.

I think that system would be better in the long run, but implementing it has so many moving parts (would we just chop 2 months of content out of A-levels, to start?)