UCAS Predicted Grades

[Beedeebee63]

My son had predicted grades of Astar, A, B. He really wanted to go to Warwick or Nottingham but they wanted Astar A, A (W) and AAA (N) with an A in Maths, so he did not put them on his application because B was his predicted grade for Maths so he believed he would be rejected. He put Liverpool & 4 others and got offers from them all. His plan was to do well and apply to W & N through clearing if he did. He smashed his exams getting Astar Astar A. Unfortunately neither University had his course on clearing so he could not apply. He has his place at Liverpool and would have been happy had he only achieved the predicted grades, but now, no thanks to league tables, discussions about connections, or lack of connections in Liverpool’s case, with high end employers etc. which don’t help the situation at all, he doesn’t want to go. He sees his hard efforts to improve his grades to get to a Uni of his choice were a waste of time. I’ve suggested he take a year out (although I’d really rather he didn’t) but he says he doesn’t want to be a year behind. I’ve also suggested he goes and gives it a try for a term, but if he still feels sad about it leave and apply for next year. I think/hope he will go and stay but he is currently so desperately unhappy.

Predicted grades are so unfair, especially when Uni’s still accept students that did not meet their conditional offer grades and students like my son achieve theirs and better! I guess he should have risked putting them on his application and we should have known clearing doesn’t always work. Hindsight, a wonderful thing in an unfair world.

My post isn’t because I think my son should have a place over anyone else, it’s about him being so sad and upset and me therefore wondering if any other parent is dealing with a child going through the same upset / same situation to see how you are reassuring your young one?

Hi OP, firstly huge congrats to your son on such amazing results. I'm a year behind you on this with my DC and have been concerned about this, as our school will not, under any circumstances, inflate predicted grades beyond those they've seen in the mocks. It sounds like your school is the same.

Across a number of discussions with friends in recent weeks, it's become clear that many schools literally put any grades on the UCAS application form, regardless of student performance or mock results. Some schools have a rule where they will increase by one grade, others by two - then there are some which will literally put what the student asks them to, based on the courses they like the look of. OP is right, there is absolutely no consistency being applied - why is that?

To those people saying your son has been badly advised or it's a hard lesson to learn, isn't it the case that the system has let him down? I think your son didn't apply for Warwick or Notts as he wasn't given the predicted grades and therefore couldn't apply? So, not really his fault at all. I really do feel for him. I think I agree with the posters who have said he should take the gap year and get onto a course he really wants with the amazing grades he worked hard to get. But my DD wouldn't want to take the gap year either, so I appreciate what a difficult decision it is.

I totally agree that the system should be based on actual not predicted grades. Kids who do better than expected are being penalised due to logistics. There should at least be a quota of places reserved for such instances - which clearly Clearing is not providing.

This leads to my final query - what is stopping schools like ours from predicting higher grades? Why not try and give kids the best chance of getting offers?

I feel your pain. It is very unfair how some schools are generous with their predictions, and others are not. We had to really argue with DS's school to change his predictions as they would initially only predict him A/A at maths and FM (he got B/A in mocks) which wuld rule out the unis he wanted to apply to and I got told off by some here for arguing with teacher's predictions. We did push back, he achieved that A and is now off to Warwick. Sadly my experience is that private schools are much more generous in predictions than state.

OP - if his heart is not in Liverpool, he should 100% take the year out. He would definitely get Warwick and others. It can be hard when his friends are going, but he could earn money for travelling and uni.

I think you slightly misunderstand ‘the system’. There is no expectation that students only apply to unis whose standard offer is the same as their predicted grades - if this is what has been advised, it is very poor advice. Students applying with predicted grades of say BBB to courses where the standard offer advertised is AAB, will, 99% of the time, receive offers of AAB. Unis (other than a handful of really selective ones/courses) don’t reject applicants simply because their predicted grades are too low.

Thanks @titchy - I think I did misunderstand. Having not been through it yet, I was not clear on whether they can apply for courses with higher entry requirements than their predictions. That's good to know. I also gather that there is a way of looking at historical data showing the range of grades which Uni's actually accept per course - although not sure if this is just hearsay. Do you know if this exists?

It’s on the UCAS website - am sure someone will provide a link.

Please make sure your dc applies to a couple of choices where the usual offer is one or two grades, or three, higher than they realistically expect. They’ll get standard offers, but unis will normally accept a dropped grade, or two or even three.

Keep an eye on clearing grades the previous year to get an idea of how much grades drop and what goes in clearing. We’ve have vet med and human med in clearing this year and last which would have been unthinkable a few years ago. Desperate times.

Thanks everyone for your thoughts. My post did touch on the flaws of the system because it is such an important part of the academic journey which I don’t think should rely on predictions and most definitely not on elements of strategy. Mostly though I wanted some pearls of wisdom to console by DS.

As I said hindsight is a wonderful thing. What if and if only thoughts are always hard but who knows even if he had applied, would he have received an offer- maybe, maybe not. We’ll never know and we can’t change what has happened but I’m glad by posting, his experience may help others.

Unusually for me I didn’t know what to say to make him feel better, but I’m getting there. It’s not the end of the world, it could be worse, my DS moves on.

@Titchy @Trampoline
I think it very much depends on the subject that is being applied for at university.
If you look on Chat University or at the Freedom Of Information Requests on predicted grades required at the top universities on the whatdotheyknow website, you can see what the average predicted grades are. Subjects like Economics require higher grades than the universities advertised required grades.
LSE advertises that they only require A star AA for Economics but when I have looked at the average predicted grades-it seems that A star, A star, A star, A is the norm.They then give offers of A star AA so if you miss your predicted grades by two you would still get in. Therefore, students at schools that overpredict are in a much better position to apply than those at schools that are very realistic with their predicted grades. Schools/teachers that pride themselves on being very realistic actually disadvantage students when 80% of schools are overpredicting.
@OP I feel for your son. The system needs changing.
I know that in Southern Ireland they allocate places after results using a points system. Students rank their choices before their results and then based on results they get a place. They start in September despite doing the equivalent of A-levels at the same time as English students.

No students at schools who over predict aren’t really in a better position. Your example of LSE actually demonstrates that: standard offer is A star AA (you don’t need to search ‘whatdotheyknow’ - it’s on their website), applicants are given that offer. The predicted is doing nothing, other than acting as an indicator to the applicant about what they might achieve, and therefore where they could think about applying to. The fact that applicants tend to be predicted A star A star A is irrelevant. They’re all getting the same offer. More importantly they all have to actually achieve that offer.

People think entrance to uni is based on predicted grades - it isn’t (other than in Covid). Applicants have to achieve their offer, or reasonably close to their offer, and standard offers are made to the vast majority of applicants, regardless of their predicted grades.

@titchy
LSE are unlikely unless a student is contextual to even give an offer for Economics with Astar A A predicted grades. You need higher predicted grades A star A star A star A on average. However, A star A A is all you need on results day to get in.

This with bells on!

@titchy This is really useful advice and I can honestly say that NONE of the year 12 parents I know are aware of this ( both state and private)

My understanding was that if the standard offer was AAA , you needed to be predicted AAA

Me too @italianlondongirl

If someone was predicted A B B, how likely are they in all honesty to get an offer from a course that routinely needs A A A? In my experience amongst DS friends this year, none at all. Some did achieve A A A and all ended up looking in clearing or taking a year out to apply with grades in hand. Unless the system is changed to apply with actual achieved grades, I cannot see an answer to this problem.

Wow no - absolutely not! Tbh I’m surprised that schools are saying that, in fact maybe they haven’t and this is just assumptions and school UCAS events will clarify? My DCs schools 10 years ago were advising apply to at least one stretch course above your grades.

I work in the sector and we’re on our knees, so apply to two, or even three, stretch courses as unis are accepting with several dropped grades nowadays. (Obviously there are a few exceptions - Oxbridge and medicines for example.)

It is important to look at what predicted grades are needed versus what you need to get on results day for specific courses and specific universities.
Let's consider one example-Economics at Lancaster University.
They say they require AAB. However, the most common grades for this course are BBB.
On Chat University, you can see that some students have predicted grades of ABC and still been given an offer of AAB (Non-contextual home students). I am pretty sure that Lancaster University is still going to accept them if they get ABC or BBB. The lowest grades are BCC.
Therefore, the required grades are a bit of a farce.

In contrast, UCL says their required grades for Economics are A star AA. However, the most common grades for this course at UCL is 3 A stars. On Chat University, you can see that people with 4 A star predicted grades are being rejected. As UCL has thousands of applicants for their spaces, they can be very picky and will reject even those with the highest predicted grades. Therefore, students at schools, which are more optimistic in their predicted grades have an advantage as on results day you only need to achieve A star AA to actually get in.

The UCAS system is broken. Students chances of the best universities is being affected by subjective predicted grades. We really need to move to allocating places based on actual grades like Ireland. They still manage to start university in September.