Why are people so determined that the tiers won't work?

[RunBackwards]

Or are pointless? I agree lots of mistakes have been in the handling of this whole thing and I'm certainly no Tory but hindsight is a wonderful thing.

We're in a High Alert Area, which means we carry on as normal, except wfh where possible and inky mix household outdoors, limited tonal total of six people. Schools remain open.

This has been explained by our LA (if anyone's listening) as being because:

-The two big risks are work and mixing indoors
-Yes, people who need to go to work are at risk
-Yes, schools are a risk

However, every contact we can remove reduces the spread, so if we take these measures the spread will be reduced and we can keep schools and essential services open.

People here seem determined that because there's still some risk (how were we ever going to eliminate it competely) every and all other measure is pointless while schools and businesses are open.

What is certian is that if people don't comply, they won't work.

I think people would rather mock the government when titting about online than really think.

It's way better, not least for the economy, to have a tiered approach than blanket national lockdowns (whether you call that circuit breaker or not)

Though given the approach by eg Germany - whose cases are lower but whose leader is already speaking about need to,avoid their health services being overwhelmed - perhaps we should be going further and stricter

I think it may help a little but with so many ignoring rules i can see why people think they won’t work. Whilst so many are in work and schools are open, two big case areas currently, it feels no where near enough.

Why do you think that people are ‘so determined’ to think something, as opposed to genuinely believing it? Given that many prominent experts on the topic hold that view it’s hardly and outlandish one.

I think perhaps that people who have been in extra restrictions since August are very tired and feeling hopeless. It seems as though we’re doing the same things but expecting different results.

The schools thing makes if psychologically difficult too. I can’t see my friend even though our sons have spent all day sat next to each other, talking, in an unventilated room with no masks. That’s hard to get your head around, isn’t it?

I think it's because despite having had the restrictions for a very long time, there are more cases not less. This fits with most people's idea of "not working".

We need a proper nationwide lockdown for two weeks. Everyone will know where they stand and what they are meant to be doing or not doing. All this fannying around with tiers and local lockdowns is getting us nowhere and fuelling confusion and resentment.

They should just get on with it.

When Liverpool went into local lockdown on the 1st of october the cases were at 238 per 100k. Now, on the 30th of October, it's at 430 per 100k.

Local lockdowns clearly dont work. You can blame it on people not complying, or schools being open, or workplaces still being open. It doesnt matter. It is what it is, and it shows locking down doesnt work. It's just fact. It's not a belief.

I'm getting a bit disillusioned with it. At school one third of the staff were off with covid in the last two weeks and nothing was done and almost inevitably I got it in time for half term.
Seems ridiculous that it can spread uncontrollably in a school and that's ok but then get contacted by track and trace to be told how important it is to stop the spread.

It seems inevitable that if you can get it again, working in a school you will so I do wonder whether to live a little in whatever window of immunity I may or may not have.

Because, for example, I'm allowed to go climbing with 80 people in the centre but I'm not allowed to arrange for one of those 80 people to be a friend.

Because my kids can be at school all day with their friends but technically my daughter isn't allowed to call in at her friends house on the way to school.

Because I'm allowed to sit in a restaurant with strangers at tables 2m away but I'm not allowed to go to my pole class where everyone is even further away.

Whilst the rules may be simple, blanket rules that help prevent the spread, they haven't made enough difference to the spread so far but they destroying my mental health.

Expecting people to still go to work, have the stress of everyday life with restrictions but have no face to face contact with their support network is just horrendous.

And the suggestion that as a single parent I can just buddy up with someone, who do you think that would be? My friend who wants to buddy with her own son, the one that wants to buddy with her parents? It's not as simple as saying "you're allowed a support bubble"

The thing to remember about support bubbles is that they do not protect you personally from getting covid - they just limit the spread when someone in the bubble gets it.

@Mischance

We need a proper nationwide lockdown for two weeks. Everyone will know where they stand and what they are meant to be doing or not doing. All this fannying around with tiers and local lockdowns is getting us nowhere and fuelling confusion and resentment.

They should just get on with it.

It won't be 2 weeks. More like 2 Months to have the desired effect. We had a pretty strict lockdown in March>April, but it took until June before cases were back down to low levels. That was with empty roads, empty public transport, factories and building sites closed, schools closed, universities closed, etc for the first few weeks at least. No one has suggested going back to such a severe lock down, so it's clear that doing a half hearted lock down for just 2 weeks won't even achieve short term reductions let alone anything significant. And anyway, people won't comply!

We have been under restrictions since 1st August. We’re going into tier 3 on Monday- the only difference it makes to us is not going to back gardens. Otherwise nothing changes. As transmission outside is low, how will this help?
Other measures include closing pubs, but with so many caveats they will all stay open, closing soft play and casinos.

I think they actually would work, if people stuck to the rules.
I'm in a tier 3 town, and as far as I can see, the vast majority of people haven't changed the way they're living in the slightest.
Our neighbours have invited us round for drinks tonight (we're not going) and they regularly have people round, as do several other neighbours.
I see groups of teenagers hanging round together just as much as I would normally.
In the shops, they limit the number of people inside the shop, but once you're in there people are reaching over you to grab things from the shelves, or brushing past you rather than say excuse me to give you the chance to keep the 2m distance.
People just don't seem bothered here anymore.

Because we've lived it, and it's not worked.

Where are you OP. Without sounding harsh, I'd suggest you're in the south somewhere.

I'm in West Yorkshire, and apart from a few blissful weeks where we were subject to just the rule of six, we've been in some sort of local lockdown since March.

At least the local lockdown the we had before Tier 2 (I think) levelled off numbers, but it did not reduce them. We were then in T2 and numbers have started increasing again. We're now headed into T3, which I expect to level off numbers again as it's similar to our previous local lockdown. But crucially, I don't think it will reduce numbers, therefore not getting us anywhere.

It currently feels endless.

And you can't just say "if they don't comply it won't work".

Some people won't - that's human nature, and the government needs to factor that in.

Depends what you mean by working I suppose. People are paying a very high price for these restrictions but they aren’t bringing rates down. They may be slowing the spread but the problem with that is when will the restrictions be lifted?

Some places like Leicester barely came out or lockdown. There is no humane definition of “working” that could say the restrictions are working there given what the residents are experiencing.

My town went into extra restrictions which included no meeting people outside of your household inside or outside in July ,with 9/100,000 cases.
We are now around 600/100,000 cases and rising.
This is why people feel it isn't working.
People have lost faith and do not trust the government.
It is a massive ask, for people to only go to work and have no other social contact for months and months with no end in sight.

Lockdowns wont work because of one basic concept; compliance.

Humans are generally not designed to comply with rules that make no sense to them. The government is saying go to work and encounter potentially hundreds of people a day, but dont see your mother, send your kids to school, but they cant have a friend over, shop and spend and mingle amongst strangers on the high street restaurants and cafes, but dont let your neighbour into your house for a coffee. These things dont make sense to most people, especially as they are all based on ensuring taxes keep coming in. Humans dont value taxes over seeing their kids.

Then the level of compliance varies depends on factors such as personality (some people give in to peer pressure and the idea of 'rules' more than others), mental health, proximity to family (both emotional and location), personal situations like living alone or health issues and their attitude towards 'I would rather live than exist'. Add the fact that these lockdowns dont have an end date, and you have very little hope of convincing people that they should sacrifice for the greater good.

Everyone reacts differently to rules being imposed, and at the minute the government is hoping those who shout 'you are the reason my life is crap' at those who dont comply will continue to blame those people rather than the government who imposed the rules in the first place, fully knowing they wouldnt be followed, but the government keep their reputation intact because they 'took action'.

Its genius really, blaming the ordinary person and pitting one neighbour against each other. It's just a pity people cant see it through the fog of desperation for all of this to be over.

Some people won't - that's human nature, and the government needs to factor that in.

But that means listening to experts. They have behavioural scientists on the SAGE Group. They might as well not be there.

People are also travelling between the tiers. Sometimes for work, sometimes just to visit the area/shop etc.

For example, I live in a currently Tier 1 area which is moving to Tier 2 this weekend. I work in an area moving to Tier 3 very shortly. So I can spend all day in a very high risk area then live by currently Tier 1, soon to be Tier 2 rules when not in work.

The whole country having the same rules would be much much simpler. And there would be none of this “well I can’t go for a drink here tonight, so we’ll just get a taxi to X location.”

Simpler rules would mean higher compliance.

@DamitJanet

Why do you think that people are ‘so determined’ to think something, as opposed to genuinely believing it? Given that many prominent experts on the topic hold that view it’s hardly and outlandish one.

Yes, precisely. The way this should actually be framed is why some people are so determined to think they will. The OP is framed around an assumption that there's really no reason to accept.

No tier system is going to work while the schools remain open in the way they are but this is the hill Johnson has always been determined to die on.

I think that people don't think tiers work because tiers aren't working.

What I don't understand is why areas struggling want a country wide lockdown rather than further measures in their own area. For example

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/30/health-chief-in-englands-worst-hit-covid-area-calls-for-immediate-lockdown

Should they not be focusing their attention on their area perhaps instead

Just because the number of cases has gone up doesnt mean a lock down isn't working. Had it not been in place the numbers would have been much higher.