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Original poster

“No vaccine forecast for at least 15 months”

39 replies

Molofololo · 23/08/2020 18:59

They just said this on channel 4 news. I thought we were optimistic it would be beginning next year? 😕 They said it very matter of fact like it was a pretty certain forecast.

OP posts:
PicsInRed · 23/08/2020 19:14

They were keeping spirits up. Nothing more.

Their given, "optimistic", timelines were never realistic.

AKissAndASmile · 23/08/2020 19:17

It's so weird that Russia has announced a vaccine and that was the end of the discussion 😂

Sunshinegirl82 · 23/08/2020 19:22

I think it depends on what they mean by forecast. Do they mean everyone in the country vaccinated? Or something that is through testing and possibly has been licensed for emergency use and/or is being given to HCP's etc?

I'd be pretty hopeful of the latter by the end of this year/early next. Particularly if the Oxford vaccine is successful. I suspect countrywide vaccination is likely to take longer.

I assume this is based on Chris Whitty's comments today? If so that isn't exactly what he said.

Original poster
Molofololo · 23/08/2020 19:27

It was in a segment where they were discussing the likelihood of the Paralympics going ahead next year.

OP posts:
GoldenOmber · 23/08/2020 19:35

There isn’t a vaccine that’s passed testing and been licensed yet so I suppose there’s no way to forecast one.

But of the vaccines currently in Phase 3 trials it would be fairly surprising if they all failed to come up with any good results in 15 months. Three of them at least are aiming for enough data to send off to regulators before the end of the year. Of course there’s a chance they could all fail, or they could all take much much longer than expected to get evidence, but that doesn’t seem like the most likely outcome at this point.

IcedPurple · 23/08/2020 19:43

@Molofololo

They just said this on channel 4 news. I thought we were optimistic it would be beginning next year? 😕 They said it very matter of fact like it was a pretty certain forecast.
Who's 'they'?
minnieok · 23/08/2020 19:51

Friend working on the Oxford trial expects prelim results in October, healthcare workers vaccinated first pre Christmas is still the hope. Rolling out to 65+ million yes next autumn.

feelingverylazytoday · 23/08/2020 19:58

I've heard rumours that the US is hoping to start vaccinating in December as well.

MiniMaxi · 23/08/2020 20:00

Yeah I think they have misunderstood Whitty’s comments. He said no vaccine available to the masses this winter but likely next winter. I assume he’s talking about winters because they are the riskiest times.

GoldenOmber · 23/08/2020 20:00

There is no chance that any government is going to see a vaccine for this get licensed, have many millions of doses already bought and made and ready to go, and not vaccinate as many people as fast as they practically and safely can.

Original poster
Molofololo · 23/08/2020 20:02

Ah yes sounds like they misinterpreted Whitty. Thanks Minnie that’s interesting and reassuring.

OP posts:
AKissAndASmile · 23/08/2020 20:24

BUT WHAT ABOUT THE RUSSIAN VACCINE?Grin

igot20joe · 23/08/2020 20:31

@minnieok That’s encouraging. Would it be NHS staff before the extremely vulnerable does your friend know?

Sunshinegirl82 · 23/08/2020 20:33

Russia's vaccine has only concluded its stage 1 trials as far as I know? The Russian government have just approved it at an earlier stage. They plan to now carry out further trials.

The Russian vaccine is behind the Oxford vaccine. We could be vaccinating more widely if they had started to do so after the phase 1 trials.

Eccle80 · 23/08/2020 20:39

[quote igot20joe]@minnieok That’s encouraging. Would it be NHS staff before the extremely vulnerable does your friend know?[/quote]
This was published a while back on priorities, health and social care workers first
www.gov.uk/government/publications/priority-groups-for-coronavirus-covid-19-vaccination-advice-from-the-jcvi/interim-advice-on-priority-groups-for-covid-19-vaccination

annabel85 · 23/08/2020 20:47

I believe we'll have some form of vaccine/antidote next year but I think it's important that it's earlier in the year. Writing another summer off (i.e. having to adhere to current restrictions) would be a disaster for the economy and would kill off the hospitality/events industry and the airlines etc.

tootyfruitypickle · 23/08/2020 20:51

Do you reckon they’ll do over 50s, then gradually add in an extra decade at a time, eg add in over 40s, then over 30s? Or even start with over 70s and work down like this ?

tootyfruitypickle · 23/08/2020 20:52

Once you’ve got the 40plus vaccinated I imagine life is pretty much as normal?

onedayinthefuture · 23/08/2020 20:56

Maybe the urgency for a vaccine has calmed down because there is perhaps some evidence the virus is weakening? We won't know of course until this winter is underway but is a possibility....

annabel85 · 23/08/2020 21:01

@onedayinthefuture

Maybe the urgency for a vaccine has calmed down because there is perhaps some evidence the virus is weakening? We won't know of course until this winter is underway but is a possibility....
It's weakening in Europe (at least the first wave is, they keep talking about a second wave due).

However, around 1000 people are dying every day in USA, Brazil and India with no signs of things easing up there and Mexico/parts of South America still really struggling.

Purpledaisychain · 23/08/2020 21:13

There are dozens of news channels and so far none of them have said the same thing about the timeline for a vaccine. We'll have a vaccine when we have a vaccine. Not before and not after.

Noextremes2017 · 23/08/2020 21:18

Whitt’s should zip his mouth up.
50% of what he says is bullshit and now it seems the other 50% is liable to mis-interpretation.

Ponoka7 · 23/08/2020 21:26

"Once you’ve got the 40plus vaccinated I imagine life is pretty much as normal?"

Except the vaccine isn't as effective in the over 65's. It's a, sliding scale, percentage wise from 60 and it has been said that we don't know if it will be effective in the over 70's. They will have to rely on herd immunity. That's the case with the flu vaccination.

The vaccine isn't mandatory, yet, my DD's SC firm has said it won't be and lots of care workers don't want it. So it's all speculation when we will get effective coverage from being vaccinated.

tootyfruitypickle · 23/08/2020 21:42

But it might help reduce severity? I have this argument every year with my DF who won’t have the flu jab ‘as it doesn’t work’. It might work and it might reduce the severity? Is that not the same thing that might happen here? Eg , I had flu vaccine when it bad swine flu vac as part of it, I caught what I think was swine flu, I was pretty ill but not bedbound, rest of my household were wiped out and in bed for over a week and dd was a baby at the time and ended up in hospital. So a vaccine that reduces severity would be a game changer as well.

Derbygerbil · 23/08/2020 22:01

Maybe the urgency for a vaccine has calmed down because there is perhaps some evidence the virus is weakening? We won't know of course until this winter is underway but is a possibility....

I don’t believe there is any evidence that the virus is weakening biologically. It is structurally the same virus that was present back in February.

Fewer people are being hospitalised as Covid infections are being spread by the young generally - the old and vulnerable are by and large remaining careful - and infections aren’t so entrenched at the moment to percolate widely into that group.