“No vaccine forecast for at least 15 months”

[Molofololo]

They just said this on channel 4 news. I thought we were optimistic it would be beginning next year? 😕 They said it very matter of fact like it was a pretty certain forecast.

[pinkbalconyrailing]

only once a proposed vaccine has been found and tested can the authorisation process start.

usually the authorisation process takes 210 active days which means more than a year in real life terms.
however, for covid-19 medicines a shortened protocol has been agreed.

some more information here: www.ema.europa.eu/en/human-regulatory/overview/public-health-threats/coronavirus-disease-covid-19/treatments-vaccines-covid-19

[PuzzledObserver]

Clearly, the flu vaccine does reduce risk for over-70’s, otherwise the NHS wouldn’t spend millions administering it every year. It may not be as effective as in younger people, but that doesn’t mean it’s useless. ISTR there was a different version given to over 65’s last year, maybe to address this issue.

As for the efficacy of the - any - new Covid vaccine in different age groups - we don’t know yet, because we haven’t got the results.

I would imagine that the results will inform the policy on how to administer it, e.g. maybe older people need more doses or something. But until there is data, we are all guessing.

[Ellsbells12]

@PuzzledObserver exactly nothing is "100% certain " it is like I plan if things don't happen nothing in life is guaranteed x

[Delatron]

I thought that although the vaccine won’t be completely effective in the elderly it will reduce the severity of the disease? Therefore less likely to need hospital admission?

[PuzzledObserver]

Chris Whitty didn't say there won't be a vaccine for 15 months, he said we should plan for this winter on the basis of what we currently have (i.e. no vaccine), and if one is approved in time, we will be in a better position.

The clip with Prof Adrian Hill in the article that @Ellsbells12 linked to is well worth a listen.

I reckon the rollout order will be:-

1)Frontline NHS and care staff, possibly other emergency services
2) Over 70's plus younger people with medical conditions which make them vulnerable
3) Over 60's
4) Over 50's
et cetera down the age scale.

The first trials only involved healthy adults aged 18-55, but later they were recruiting older adults and people with some health conditions. So by the time they are able to report efficacy with the main group, they should also have safety data for the other groups, if not efficacy data. That may allow the regulator to approve it for older people, on the basis that it is safe.

Let's say in adults 18-55 it is 95% effective, but in over 70's it's only 50%. That is still worth having, so long as the risk from the vaccine itself is sufficiently low.

[whatswithtodaytoday]

But Ponoka7, over 70s do get the flu vaccination. And as a pp said, we don't know yet what vaccine it will be - presumably Oxford, but you never know.

The immune system starts to fail in elderly people, which is why the vaccine may not work as well. But I'm sure they'll vaccinate anyway, just in case it helps.

[ThatDamnScientist]

I will go back and read the thread properly when I can find my damn glasses but I suspect (hope) that they (I believe the info for this came from Chris Whitty) are talking about full roll out to the country. We were discussing it earlier and it could also be a damper to prevent people going fuck it (more than they are already) so they remain cautious.

[Ellsbells12]

He didn't even say that he said plan on the basis we won't have a vaccine ! Basically don't rely on it

[Ellsbells12]

www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-vaccine-news-uk-russia-covid-19-oxford/

From
Today

[Toontown]

I am not a medic medic by the way just a plain and simple medic.

[Toontown]

That's fine not to want a vaccine but if you work with vulnerable people get another job or be unemployed. My job as a medic medic means I have to wear lots of ppe all day long follow a huge long list of health and safety procedures and most likely be vaccinated. If I don't want it I have to get another job. C'est la vie.

[Derbygerbil]

The vaccine isn't mandatory, yet, my DD's SC firm has said it won't be and lots of care workers don't want it.

If care workers won’t have the vaccine, they shouldn’t be care workers!

[Derbygerbil]

Except the vaccine isn't as effective in the over 65's.

We don’t have a vaccine yet so how can we know this?

[Derbygerbil]

Maybe the urgency for a vaccine has calmed down because there is perhaps some evidence the virus is weakening? We won't know of course until this winter is underway but is a possibility....

I don’t believe there is any evidence that the virus is weakening biologically. It is structurally the same virus that was present back in February.

Fewer people are being hospitalised as Covid infections are being spread by the young generally - the old and vulnerable are by and large remaining careful - and infections aren’t so entrenched at the moment to percolate widely into that group.

[tootyfruitypickle]

But it might help reduce severity? I have this argument every year with my DF who won’t have the flu jab ‘as it doesn’t work’. It might work and it might reduce the severity? Is that not the same thing that might happen here? Eg , I had flu vaccine when it bad swine flu vac as part of it, I caught what I think was swine flu, I was pretty ill but not bedbound, rest of my household were wiped out and in bed for over a week and dd was a baby at the time and ended up in hospital. So a vaccine that reduces severity would be a game changer as well.

[Ponoka7]

"Once you’ve got the 40plus vaccinated I imagine life is pretty much as normal?"

Except the vaccine isn't as effective in the over 65's. It's a, sliding scale, percentage wise from 60 and it has been said that we don't know if it will be effective in the over 70's. They will have to rely on herd immunity. That's the case with the flu vaccination.

The vaccine isn't mandatory, yet, my DD's SC firm has said it won't be and lots of care workers don't want it. So it's all speculation when we will get effective coverage from being vaccinated.

[Noextremes2017]

Whitt’s should zip his mouth up.
50% of what he says is bullshit and now it seems the other 50% is liable to mis-interpretation.

[Purpledaisychain]

There are dozens of news channels and so far none of them have said the same thing about the timeline for a vaccine. We'll have a vaccine when we have a vaccine. Not before and not after.

[annabel85]

@onedayinthefuture

Maybe the urgency for a vaccine has calmed down because there is perhaps some evidence the virus is weakening? We won't know of course until this winter is underway but is a possibility....

It's weakening in Europe (at least the first wave is, they keep talking about a second wave due).

However, around 1000 people are dying every day in USA, Brazil and India with no signs of things easing up there and Mexico/parts of South America still really struggling.

[onedayinthefuture]

Maybe the urgency for a vaccine has calmed down because there is perhaps some evidence the virus is weakening? We won't know of course until this winter is underway but is a possibility....

[tootyfruitypickle]

Once you’ve got the 40plus vaccinated I imagine life is pretty much as normal?

[tootyfruitypickle]

Do you reckon they’ll do over 50s, then gradually add in an extra decade at a time, eg add in over 40s, then over 30s? Or even start with over 70s and work down like this ?

[annabel85]

I believe we'll have some form of vaccine/antidote next year but I think it's important that it's earlier in the year. Writing another summer off (i.e. having to adhere to current restrictions) would be a disaster for the economy and would kill off the hospitality/events industry and the airlines etc.

[Eccle80]

[quote igot20joe]@minnieok That’s encouraging. Would it be NHS staff before the extremely vulnerable does your friend know?[/quote]
This was published a while back on priorities, health and social care workers first
www.gov.uk/government/publications/priority-groups-for-coronavirus-covid-19-vaccination-advice-from-the-jcvi/interim-advice-on-priority-groups-for-covid-19-vaccination