50 days on 30 days off rolling lockdown

[MagisCapulus]

I did have a quick look, but apologies I'd there is already a thread on this.

www.grimsbytelegraph.co.uk/news/grimsby-news/50-days-30-until-2022-4148695

This seems well researched from what the article is saying. And it seems a way of giving a bit of certainty with regards to timings, light at the end of the tunnel of lockdown, time to see family in between.

Would this make it all more bearable.do you think?

50 days ... until 2022? God, I hope not

It'd be a nightmare constantly opening and closing businesses

I think that would be horrendous. I’d be willing to do it if it meant more safety for the population as a whole, but it’d still be horrendous. I also think it would be extremely difficult in terms of the economy and would put many more people in financial hardship.

The rolling lockdown was discussed at the start of the press conferences ages ago

This is probably what will happen, or something like it

Oh my God, I don't know what to say!

The point of lockdown is to get the situation sufficiently under control that the government can then carry on with testing, tracing and quarantine. Not give it a rest and then wait for another lockdown!

You realize that many other countries have got this situation under control without any lockdown at all?

Test and trace. Quarantine mild and asymptomatic people quickly in hotels. Quarantine all new airport arrivals in hotels. Everyone wears masks outside the home unless they are under 3 or have a genuine medical or psychological conditions preventing this. Carry on "stuff" (schools, businesses, restaurants, travel) but in a more distanced manner with lots of hand hygiene, temp checks, masks, spacing stuff out, moving operations outside (which will slow any spread of the virus, meaning that if you get a cluster, it can then be crushed quickly through contact-tracing and quarantine measures).

The virus is showing signs of struggling in warm weather. The number of cases in London has gone down. This is the golden opportunity to get this thing under control now. You can then carry on with "modified normal" until there is a vaccine. That's what they are doing in HK, Taiwan, and a whole bunch of other countries.

I dont see how it can work for business. It far harder to open a company back up than to close.

It took us 30 days to get up to full speed. Our cuatomers still want the work doing, but we can't employ more people. So every is working flat out to fulfill what they need. And our customers are hospitals , government buildings etc.

We would have to employ 3 times as many people to do all the work in 30 day stints. Then the government would need to pay furlough for those.

It we can carry on as is, not furlough, some over time for people where needed to get work done. Not requiring furlough payment.

Opening company's for 30 days will do nothing to keep peoples jobs safe or keep the trading.

No. Businesses will be bankrupt, people will lose jobs and homes and the country as a whole would become insolvent.

No.

That's madness and completely unworkable in the real world.

It's fine for scientists to come up with random theories, but implementing that in the real world and expecting the economy to recover and people to keep their jobs probably didn't factor in their "research".

It's a ridiculous idea.

This will never happen. Too complex and too expensive for the state.

50/30 would be horrendous.

49/28 would at least align with whole weeks.

It's not sustainable for businesses. Won't happen.

Totally bonkers.
Easy for people who are 'funded' to have thought experiments. We were suckered into lockdown by the charlatan Ferguson once -I don't believe people will fall for it again.
The irony is that those who can afford to stay indoors- pensioners-are the once out and about all the time taking 'exercise'.
Has revealed a lot of very unpleasant things and been hugely divisive. Teaching unions have managed to ensure that their members will never again have any sympathy or respect.

Some of the earliest modelling and government plans looked into the possibility of pulsed lockdown as the figures suggested that this worked quite well. Unfortunately it was decided that this would be far to complicated and confusing for many people and would lead to very poor compliance.

We already have a lot of people making up their own version of the rules, if we had pulsed on and off rules I think many people would say “if I was allowed to do such and such yesterday, then it can’t be so bad today”.

Also, it seems the majority don’t actually listen to the government announcements or read the guidance (just look at how many people and newspapers think the government has changed its mind on schools when they never said that kids would go back on June 1st, only that they hoped they might by then at the earliest if it would be safe).

I know people who work in this kind of scientific modelling (I work in a related area), and the ideal situation if we were all perfect rule following robots did look like it might be some form of pulsed lockdown (most likely with on/off criteria set at certain levels from incoming data), but there is just no way to make this work in a real life situation across the country as a whole.

I did think it would be complex to manage, and compliance would be an issue. I just thought it was well researched, but yes, in the real world the models don't always work! I thought it would be easier mentally to have ok, seven in, four out as a definite when so many people are struggling with the uncertainty. and you could prepare better, I guess. You all raise some good points though.

Well Resilience planning is currently working on the idea that we will have to lockdown again and again as numbers rise and fall...

I'm self employed and it would mean the end of my business.

Can't see any issues at all. Not as though people would cram 80 days of socialising into 30 if they knew this was to happen is it.
Realistically this would lead to pubs being busier than ever when the can be open, weddings being crammed in every day of the week and more simply be a nightmare for many industries (for example many hospitality venues will end up with breakfast, lunch and dinner events most days of the week and staff will end up working 100+ hour weeks during the period that they can be open in order to get by the rest of the time).

That would never ever ever ever work, but not for the economy! We can all say what will be best but the truth of the matter is as soon as other countries have their enconomies back open we will be doing the same.. It will be a cold day in hell if the pm lets our economy suffer while other countries get back to normal... don't forget we were sheep in the first place when going into lockdown... we had our own science to follow and crapped ourselves when people questioned it so just followed everyone else... We will be following every other country when opening back up too and sadly it looks like USA will be the bench mark!

That article doesn't suggest ots well researched at all. Its not modelled on the UK at all.

It also doesn't really tell you how it was was modelled. The article says it will be good for the econmony, but no explanation as to how. Because its not. Companies can't close, open nd do enough business in 30 days. At the start of this we furliughed about 1000 people. That costs the country a fortune. Just for our company.

How on earth can the country afford that for the majority of the year? We not fit the 80 days work, into 30. We would need people working 24/7 or employ more. Meaning profits were down to less than zero and furlough costs go up.

Businesses like consistency. South Korea has established a model that works and has been able to say to its people and businesses "Here are plans and models showing what the situation will be like for the next 12-18 months." Businesses are having a hard time of course, but at least businesses in SK are able to plan ahead and decide how to deal with the reality.

Can you imagine trying to keep things doing during that kind of insane roller coaster? And how much time and energy would be spent setting "remote/distanced" solutions up (in business and education) and then taking them down again? Most likely, people would just end up perennially confused.

But if lockdowns are eased and the numbers start going up again, what alternative is there to rolling lockdowns?

There is no vaccine, only a small proportion of populations have had the virus so far. If the virus continues to spread as it did just before lockdown, the numbers will go up as lockdowns ease.

Not sure what else can be done?

Not sure what else can be done?

Test, trace, out-of-home-quarantine, masks, moderate social distancing (no big events, limit numbers in shops and workplaces etc.)

That's what they are doing (roughly speaking) in much of East Asia and we are managing OK over here.

That's unworkable for businesses and impractical for human compliance. Ridiculous idea. We're having one long lockdown; with better treatment ?, track/trace and hopefully a vaccine asap.

There isnt going to be a vaccine for years, if ever, and there is no lifetime immunity

Test, trace, out-of-home-quarantine, masks, moderate social distancing (no big events, limit numbers in shops and workplaces etc.)

Which is still a type of lockdown

That's what they are doing (roughly speaking) in much of East Asia and we are managing OK over here.

It's too early to tell yet

Strange post.

There is no need for "lifetime immunity." There will almost certainly be a vaccine within 2021. What HK, Taiwan, Singapore and other countries are doing is not a lockdown.