50 days on 30 days off rolling lockdown

[MagisCapulus]

I did have a quick look, but apologies I'd there is already a thread on this.

www.grimsbytelegraph.co.uk/news/grimsby-news/50-days-30-until-2022-4148695

This seems well researched from what the article is saying. And it seems a way of giving a bit of certainty with regards to timings, light at the end of the tunnel of lockdown, time to see family in between.

Would this make it all more bearable.do you think?

There is no need for "lifetime immunity." There will almost certainly be a vaccine within 2021. What HK, Taiwan, Singapore and other countries are doing is not a lockdown

There might never be a vaccine. There has never been a successful vaccine found yet for a coronavirus (SARS, MERS). Even if they did find one, it still does not necessarily mean lifetime immunity.

There is no guaranteed immunity, even if you've already had Covid19, immunity might only last a few months or even weeks. As it does with flu, the common cold (25% of the cc being a Coronavirus) and some other viruses

As I said. A rolling lockdown has always been on the cards.

HK, Taiwan, Singapore are going into a lighter lockdown now but that does not mean they won't have to tighten up the lockdown again in a few weeks time.

No one knows what's going to happen. No one knows enough about the virus yet.

The article specifically mentions school closures in the rolling lock down.

If schools and childcare close people can not work.

No matter how pro lock down you are, pretending rolling stricter lockdowns which curb peoples ability to work, will end a poverty epidemic. Whole generation of kids behind educationally. Mental health n a bigger shit heap than it is. That will lead to far more deaths than Covid would cause.

There have been coronavitus vaccines for animals
There have not been for sars or Mers because the need was not particularly great. Although the mers one made lots of progress

I think there will be another lockdown end of October through November. I don't think a rolling lockdown like that would work in the real world. The economy would be decimated.

Rolling lockdown is actually what I've been preparing for, as an individual/household.

Not because I particularly like the idea, but because it was the proposed solution in that Imperial paper which emerged just before lockdown. So, as far as I'm aware, that's the science the government intends to follow. And like it or not, that's what we will have to adapt to.

I'm under no illusion it will be easy. Our household should be fine (mostly), but on a larger scale... I've got a feeling things like furlough will be further extended, possibly morph into something akin to Universal Basic Income. And this will mean people like me and DH (who can and do work from home) will have to pay more taxes. Which sounds like a small price to pay in the great scheme of things (I don't particularly fancy people starving or dying from illnesses. So me and mine working while others stay furloughed seems like a fairer alternative, all things considered)

There has never been a successful vaccine found yet for a coronavirus (SARS, MERS).

Oh God, not this again.

They did not bother completing a vaccine for SARS because it petered however (however, the vaccine research for COVID19 was quick off the mark in part because it piggybacked on the SARS vaccine research that had been done).

There IS a vaccine for MERS--it is being trialled right now. It looks good.

Few human coronaviruses have had vaccine attempted simply because most human coronaviruses do not produce severe enough disease to make vaccines worthwhile. Animal coronaviruses do produce some severe diseases however. Animal coronaviruses vaccines have been developed and work perfectly OK.

There IS a vaccine for MERS--it is being trialled right now. It looks good

How many times have we heard this?

Rolling lockdown is actually what I've been preparing for, as an individual/household.

Not because I particularly like the idea, but because it was the proposed solution in that Imperial paper which emerged just before lockdown. So, as far as I'm aware, that's the science the government intends to follow. And like it or not, that's what we will have to adapt to.

Exactly

People seem to have forgotten the first press briefings when rolling lockdowns were explained in detail

The graphs back then, when they had a long science section at the end of each briefing, had waves of lockdown lasting over a year. The graphs had peaks and troughs of lockdown. Heavy then light then heavy then light and so on

It's always been on the cards

Test, trace, out-of-home-quarantine, masks, moderate social distancing (no big events, limit numbers in shops and workplaces etc.)

Out of home quarantine? Do people really want to be forced to leave their homes? What happens if you've got caring responsibilities, pets to look after?

What happens if you've got caring responsibilities, pets to look after?

The other person in the household would take care of the pet. Wages should be compensated. Trust me, compensating wages for a small % of people works out an awful lot cheaper than throwing the economy off a cliff (otherwise known as lockdown).

If you are single and live by yourself, you don't need to go into OOH quarantine. You just stay at home. The whole point of OOH is to stop infection of other household members.

Parents should have the right to decide whether children stay in the home or go to the hotel with the quarantined parent.

You don't even have to make it compulsory. Israel has a voluntary OOH quarantine program, and only about 30% of people comply---it appears to be enough, though, as they are doing very well with squashing COVID19.

I would rather see a small % of the population spend a couple of weeks resting comfortably in a hotel, than for 100% of the entire population to wind up locked up in their houses, for 6 weeks at a time, several times over, while the economy collapses around their ears.

Although if the herd immunity thing actually starts to work out (as it MIGHT be doing in London), perhaps there will be no need for either of these things to happen. Touch wood!

Not a chance will the majority of vuisnesses be expected to close again.

It maybe that any that cant do social distancing may have to close. But it won't ever be a lockdown like we have just seen.

And i dont believe we will get OOH quarentine either

I wasn't sure whether you meant compulsory or voluntary OOH quarantine. I a lot of posters seem to admire the Chinese methods and it's not always clear!

DH and I have spoken about what we'll do if one of us gets Covid and we'll just have to get on with it. If he gets it I'd rather he stayed at home and I'll look after him and take my chances. It's impossible to isolate from each other here anyway so it's unlikely that the other one would avoid it.

Nope.

People won't comply. Many have already had enough of the current one for good reason. It's highly unnatural to live like this and the economic toll is too great.

The virus kills mostly elderly people who have complex health conditions. It kills very few younger people. Society has done a huge thing to protect the vulnerable and rightly so but we can't sustain this. Both for health reasons and economic reasons. We need to move to protecting the vulnerable only.

The government can't actually force people to lockdown -they don't have the power. People have to chose to comply. And they won't.

There is no cure or vaccine.

Governments, across the world, in the long term cannot stop people catching or dying from Covid19. That is not the aim of the lockdowns

The lockdowns are to stop millions of people catching it all at the same time. Which would overwhelm the health services.

The aim is to flatten the curve or curves. To spread it out over a longer period of time. Over many months, maybe years

To be blunt about it. Rolling lockdowns would
Flatten the curve then
Allow more to get it
Flatten the curve
Allow more to get it
Flatten the curve....

Strict lockdown then light lockdown and repeat and so on

So the curve on the graph rolls

They are not looking for a "cure", just "good treatments." They are already treating the disease far better than they were a few months ago (revising the use of ventilators, for example)

How many times have we heard this?

Err, you keep hearing this again and again because it's like, true. In the same way that flat-earth deniers keep being informed again and again that the earth is in fact round.

www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/04/200422132600.htm

(I have no idea why I am even bothering to engage in this bizarre argument, to be honest)

(I have no idea why I am even bothering to engage in this bizarre argument, to be honest)

Because you won't face up to a simple truth?

There is no guaranteed lasting immunity to this virus

There isn't going to be another strict lockdown like there has been. We won't see huge numbers, furloughed. We won't see businesses closing unless the government say they absolutely must.

The curve can be flattened by social distancing, by keeping people who can work at home, at home, not allowing large events etc.

No one is looking for a cure. They are looking at a vaccine and ways to treat it. They are alos trying to figure out why some people are impacted more so they work out who is more at risk (not just based on age).

At the moment its all speculation. But we know more. The more we know, the more targeted approach we can take.

And out if house quarentine is a luxury. Lots of people wouldn't be able to go even if they wanted to.

i think this idea needs revisiting

www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/rolling-5030-day-cycle-of-lockdown-and-relaxation-could-be-a-useful-option-for-managing-covid-19

Or ... you know ...sweden ....

As long as I knew the dates to book my holidays in the each 30 days on

Ffs that’s ridiculous. Who comes up with this shit?

We need to figure out how to live with this as successfully as possible. But with no economic activity, we will have no essential services (including healthcare).

No one signed up to lockdown as a way of life.