When do you think the virus will peak in the UK?

[justarandom1]

Just that really. I’m thinking around a month from now, so mid-April. It will be such a relief when the fatalities begin to taper off.

Why do you think you can you get it once? 🤔

Why would our peak be so much longer and worse than china's or south Korea or Taiwans

Leo varadker just told us on tv nobody knows when this will end.

BUT, I am just trying to hope that by mid may, enough people will have already had it to leave less potentially terrified people

It depends what we do individuals and the strategy the government decides on. Here are the models to show what is likely to happen with different strategies:

www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf?fbclid=IwAR3PQSzpObyq-ULWzwsNKvDHwPhri47wEsJSDqEJYX0dTzIw1JQc6wVSGCE

You do need to read the text understand what the graphs are showing though.

Fatalities won't peak until some time after the daily increase in cases starts to slow, because this virus often takes weeks to kill.

After radical social distancing measures are implemented you should see new cases start to fall in a couple of weeks (the Italians think their new case numbers should start falling next week).

In the U.K. at a guess and assuming a lockdown sometime next week, you probably have another 3 weeks of exponential growth in case numbers, then another 3-4 weeks after that before death rates start to fall.

Early July for the first peak. January for the second. Might be coming out the end of it in 12 months.

When was Italy where the uk is now?
I tried to google that but couldnt find out.

Ventilator because a huge amount are infected and social distancing is very lax

@theyearofthedog
15 days (ish)
nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/

The graph says with supression (which delays the peak ironically) it will be around June.

If you don't supress the peak is earlier, but of course a lot higher.