To think we can't afford the triple lock

[paddleboardingmum]

Things seem very weighted against young people right now in terms of tax, student loans, and then there's the cost of mortgages and childcare. I know there are some older people struggling and I do feel sorry for them. But plenty are not and I think we just can't afford the triple lock at the moment. AIBU

And why?

Isn't this because it is too expensive and too much hustle to employ a person? because the saving between employing a youngster and mature person is too small to justify effort of employing and teaching YA? and because of Labour Employment Bill it's too risky to employ unproven person? All at the same time when you can claim anxiety and depression and get the same amount in benefits as you'd get in low skilled employment.

What about NI tax relief for employers for all employees below e.g. age 22, but no benefits at all for the same age group unless very severely disabled? either objectively diagnosed physical disability or severe learning disability?

Should have finished those GCSEs, rather than spend time shepherding on the Welsh hills..

I'm the same! We both took early retirement at 60 but pay tax on our LA pensions. So when I get mine, I'll have paid tax for 50 years and my husband will have paid his for the same and we will pay tax until we pop our clogs. Only benefit I have ever received was family allowance when it was universal. So we are taking it.

I think far too few people are grasping what is about to happen this winter.

Petrol and Diesel prices are going to go through the roof. There's going to be an international shortage. We are particularly exposed to diesel as we only refine 50% of what we use. The majority we import from the Netherlands with some coming from the US and the middle east. We will not be getting much from the middle east over the coming months - the Saudi just cancelled European orders that were expected to be delivered at the end of the month and some for October. US are considering a ban on diesel exports.

Diesel is import for freight, trains and tractors. This matters.

The conflict already means there's a problem with food prices for next year for other reasons too. There's not enough fertiliser. A lot of farmers around the world could afford it over the summer so yields on crops now planted, never mind one yet to be sown, are going to be down. There is going to be a particular squeeze on rice, wheat and oils. All our ready meals are choc full of wheat products. In parts of the world there will be famine. Famine means unrest and that's likely to affect yields too.

The energy capacity is likely to go up AT LEAST 20% come January. Where am I getting this information from? Well this guy called Martin Lewis. You may have heard of him. And tbh I think despite his fears this is going to be better pretty impossible to avoid given UK and EU levels of reserves.

Brown outs and fuel rationing are not beyond the realms of possibility at this stage unless we see a significant change soon.

Your holiday abroad? Well if your airline can find fuel it's going to be extortionate. If it can find the fuel to fly. Make sure you have decent travel insurance.

All this means inflation is going up. It's hard to see people not losing their jobs.

It's hard to see interest rates staying the same.

We have a perfect storm brewing of FUTURE problems. Arguing about the past in this context seems fucking ridiculous. We should be asking what the government is doing to mitigate these new pressures.

It's is going to be a long dark winter without much of a summer next year. Let's hope it's not too cold. Oh a warmer El Nino winter might lead to more floods...

We are utterly utterly fucked and no one seems to be really paying much attention to this yet. They will.

We are looking at a real crisis incoming.

PS Happy Christmas. Make sure you order your tat from China extra early this year, so you make sure your stuff is actually manufactured (that damn oil and factories running) and it gets to the UK on time (at least an extra 2 - 3 weeks delivery time as those Yemenis screwed Temu. Oh and with extra high insurance and fuel costs for that container ship). - sucks teeth like a builder - it's gonna cost you.

We aren't.

At least in terms of the standard metric (debt to GDP).

It's remained at around 95% for the past 6 years.

I guess as GDP is growing over that period you could argue that we are borrowing somewhat more. But the debt to GDP in 2026 is slightly less than in 2020.

The UK isn't borrowing significant amounts more money because the markets won't let it without increasing bond yields significantly and the government(s) are too scared of sparking a financial crisis.

I don't think we can afford so many NEETS. But, life is what it is. 🤷‍♀️

If it's any consolation, I defend both.

Personal pensions were introduced in the mid 80s, some 40+ years ago, so virtually every person retiring around now would have had ample opportunity to save into their own personal pension plan even if their employer didn't provide a scheme!

Then we need to give them jobs. Young unemployment is at a high level. Thanks to Reeves, lots of firms have stopped hiring young people and reduced headcount generally.

Best not get myself into a UC debate. I know significantly less about the suite of working age state benefits than I do about pensions. Lets just say I am more on the right of centre when it comes to the welfare state.

Yep

And those that bugger off abroad working for years on end abd come back, having g contributed very little, wanting pension credit. People need to grow up and start planning in their 20s and not expect top ups when they havent got a pension.

I agree with you, however, what's that got to do with pensioners? Also, what age are you discussing?

Damn. Should have started drilling earlier.

I think it depends a lot on how bad winter is for us. The UK really sits on a cliff edge where if we get a warm winter and plenty of wind then the amount of heating fuel we need is significantly reduced. If we get a Dec 2010 with little wind and freezing cold temperatures it's a different story.

There are a couple more big wind farms coming on line, although Dogger A is running quite a bit behind schedule and is only running at 50% capacity due to problems. Dogger B is at 50% capacity also, but not sure whether this is due to lack of turbine installation or limit on export capacity. Let's hope they can get the extra GW by winter and Putin doesn't decide to cut the cables.

They chose to spend it on cars, holidays, phones, tvs, takeaways instead!

I guess as GDP is growing over that period you could argue that we are borrowing somewhat more. But the debt to GDP in 2026 is slightly less than in 2020.

Yes, so we are borrowing more money. Just because it is in the same/less proportion to GDP doesn’t mean it isn’t more.
Just like household debt, we as a country could do with borrowing less.

UC is means tested. What is awarded is what the law says a person needs to live on, taking into account their other income (which they may pay tax on) and savings. Also, some of UC is to pay housing costs. How would it be sensible to tax that?

Some other benefits are taxable like ESA and Carer's Allowance which, like the State Pension, aren't means tested.

I know. I started work in 1987 and paid into a pension from day 1.
However, it was common back then for part-time workers not to be able to pay into a pension, so workplace pensions were nowhere near as inclusive (and compulsory) as they are now.
Also, private pensions did exist, but it's wrong to suggest they were as widespread and accessible as they are now.
So yes, most people COULD pay into a pension, but there was not the pressure - or the opportunities - there are today.

Wind farms don't drive tractors, fly aeroplanes, run trains or fuel lorries.

We are at "Houston We Have A Problem" level, right now.

This could get a lot lot worse too.

Or childcare (no subsidised hours), longer maternity leave (only 12 weeks were paid, most as SMP), high interest rates (14% at one point), paternity leave (not a thing then) or subsidising part-time work (no flexible working or WFH).
Look, all generations have their problems and challenges. Your silly comment does you no credit.

They fuel some trains !

They can also offset heating demand as many people can use temporary electric heaters instead of gas (at a cost).

I haven't looked at the diesel issues, but it does sound concerning.

Maybe time to buy a few sixpacks of beans and rice pudding.

The workings are from the OBR in the most recent risk forecast- I think this year it's actually 11.6 and it's 15.5 by 2030 to be exact. The triple lock is the second largest line item on the government budget after health. It prevents spending on so many other things.

It compounds over time, which is why the costs have shot up so rapidly; it's also really volatile because of the different options for uprating. If you don't believe me, you could look here: OBR report on the unsustainable burden of the triple lock actuaries probably not being given to wild mathematical speculation.

The gas situation is bad. In winter we need gas for electricity.

Also, just to add, sorry. This isn't new.

In the 1980s, Thatcher not only introduced right to buy, but she slowly sold off our mines, ship building, steel industry, manufacturing, denationalised our public transport, our telecoms, our energy providers and George Osbourne finished it all off by selling Royal Mail. No work for young and older except service industries. Plus then the Tory\ Lib Dems introduced tuition fees. Then to top it all off, public institutions put cleaning and catering out to tender, as they were instructed to by Govt so those staff no longer had pensions and good wages and conditions.

The UK has zero assets left. All we have is debt. None of this is the fault of pensioners Or the unemployed.

When people on this thread are saying "they should have saved up" how could they? They all got made redundant! And there was no universal credit, no tax credits etc.

And guess what? Instead of blaming the people responsible, young and old are blaming each other and the people who profited from all of the above are laughing at us.

We've got our unprofitable steel industry back!

We might need to reopen mines yet.