Fuck knows.
The noise this weekend which I'm following closely seems to imply that there is a universal undertone of "oh shit" in various forms.
I'm not sure the LDs are really helping matters by sticking their oar in and politicking. But AWOL Andy isn't helping matters there either.
Some of the scariest stuff is coming from respected journalists, that I would regard as Sensible Heads. It's unnerving.
One comment I saw was if you read twitter ATM you'll go nuts with all the speculation. And that's absolutely the truth.
It has an air of all hell about to break loose. Tonight it sounds like it's another round is about to kick off in the Middle East.
There's a book called 1913.
It tries to convey the mood of the year, ignoring what we know was about to unfold. It describes a relatively carefree society and details that there is best selling book in Germany called 'The Great Illusion which says "the Great War, that eternal threat, will never come" because countries are too economically interlinked.' It all just feels ominous.
And even when everyone knew it was coming there was an air of disbelief even as it happened.
Josh Hunt AT Iamjoshhunt
There's a lot of war news in the UK media right now, much of it about British involvement in conflicts abroad.
I rarely cover war. The inner workings are murky and it’s unusually difficult to know which stories are real, exaggerated or incomplete.
But after a few conversations this week with some very worried people, I thought I'd offer a view (I’m no expert on war, so do with this opinion what you will). Not on the mechanics of the conflicts. But on the bombardment of stories we're getting about them.
Most of them draw a sharp intake of breath. Will there be attacks on home soil? Are we prepared? Conscription?
It's an understandable reaction because we were all raised on the horrors of two world wars. Talk of war unearths pure terror in most of us.
But I suggest you weigh it against what's happening domestically to maintain at least a sliver of sanity.
War serves almost nobody. The threat of war, however, serves some very powerful people. Our government among them.
It is the best cover there is for doing unpopular things. And this government desperately needs to do some unpopular things.
War changes what people will tolerate. Spending that was impossible suddenly becomes essential. Taxes that were unacceptable become, in a sense, patriotic. Shortages become collective sacrifice.
That's not to say the threat isn't real. It is.
But we're nowhere near prepared. You've heard the stories about the state of our armed forces after decades of neglect.
And take a look at the money... defence spending rises to 2.7% of GDP next year, then sits there until 2030. The 3.5% target is pencilled in for 2035, with no plan for how we get there and a third of the latest increase is yet to be funded.
That is not the budget of a country that expects to be at war soon.
These are different times from the first half of the 20th century. The government knows any attempt at conscription would be met with a resounding "F**K OFF".
You can't spend two decades pricing people out of a stake in this country and then ask them to die for it.
So here's the signal to watch for. If things truly do get dire enough to need mass civilian mobilisation, this is how I think they'd get it.
A war economy means a wobbling financial system, high unemployment and mortgages people can't pay.
The offer writes itself… sign up to fight, and your family keeps the house. Simple.
At that point the kitchen table recruits better than any MoD ad campaign. And the street does the rest. In 1914 it was white feathers handed to men out of uniform. Every family with someone serving to save their home will make sure the neighbours who aren't are shamed for it.
Recruitment happens in your community, not from government officials.
So no, I don't think they're preparing to conscript the civilian population. The better question is what the language of national emergency makes possible at home.
Higher taxes, spending cuts, rationing, maybe even capital controls. All extremely hard to sell in normal times, but much easier in exceptional ones.
And if it ever does come to all-out war? This time it's different.
It'll be for your home, not your country.
That makes for really grim thinking. We aren't ready but we may not get a choice.
As for when 'it will begin':
A French military source, asked whether Paris could strike back at Russia without the public knowing, told Le Monde: "It's already the case."
France has begun covert conventional responses to Russian hybrid attacks in Europe. Concern is rising across the continent that Russia could move directly against NATO in the near future
Given the history of British special forces, it seems inconceivable at this stage that the UK aren't carrying out operations.
With that in mind my sense back I wonder if it's even possible to stop the momentum than to do something sensible. And that's before you consider Trumps ego or Putin having nothing to lose.