Number 2 has crossed my mind many times, and I also wondered if Musk was a Russian agent.
Though I like to tell myself it's just my imagination.
I think the more likely scenario is that Putin got interested in Trump a few years ago, saw an opportunity to actually effectively wiggle his way to the top of US politics via Trump, and was able to feed Trump's ego and tap into his desire for money and wealth enough to completely get him believing everything he says. Putin is extremely intelligent and he's laughing now!
I haven't decided if Trump is an evil genius or a thick puppet. I prefer to think the latter because the former is far too frightening.
Worryingly, people had similar thoughts about Hitler (comedic thick puppet or evil genius) and many preferred to believe the comedy puppet than face the evil genius and that didn't end too well.