I know nobody really knows but....what do YOU think will happen with Iran war?

[ChefsKisser]

What do you think will happen with the war in Iran? Will it burn out soon, go on forever, turn into WW3?

I feel so stressed by it and am stuck in a doomscroll loop which I know is never going to help. The impact on the UK is grim, it limits where else we could consider moving to and I'm just utterly fed up tbh.

diplomatically i think the repercussions will last a long time.
even if dt turns his troops around today the fall out will linger. there will be more anti american sentiment globally.
financially the ocean waterway pinch points will all become more expensive to "use" and yes resulting in cost of living increases.
i can see more countries arming up, having more small nuclear missiles and more investment (at a cost) to get away from fossil fuels.
i think it will mean less stability in the middle east.

Iran has forced the US to keep its naval fleet hundreds of miles from the Iranian coast as they were to vulnerable to move closer, whilst also proving US and Israeli missile defences are inadequate.
Also the US is completely unable to loosen Irans grip on the straight of Hormuz. I’d class all of those as military victories

He's sending in ground troops isn't he so it will go on for a while. I do think that eventually he'll get bored, give up and declare victory, leaving the world in a far more dangerous state than it is now.

I also don't think this state visit should be going ahead, we should completely disacociate from him

Quite. He's got his own gestapo in ICE too.

I think Trump will be assassinated and everyone will be left scratching their heads as to the next move. Also can’t help but wonder what would/wouldn’t happen if the world was instead run by women capable of multi tasking and diplomacy rather than the willy waving idiots we seem to have accumulated world wide. There won’t be a nuke as it will just be the end of everything. This is all about money and control, old land, religion and silly radicalised ideology. I do believe there needs to be regime change in Iran but similarly anywhere else where there’s any other gross mistreatment of humans. Short term there will be a fuel shortage but Covid taught us all how to work from home and be economical so we’ll just wait it out baking banana bread and clapping our pots and pans for the NHS.

I read an article that I can’t for the life of me find now. It talked about DT suffering from a specific type of dementia that fills in gaps with lies he believes absolutely. And suggested that by the end of May it’s going to be impossible to hide any more (although it’s not well hidden anyway) and the republicans will have to do something.

if that’s true it gives them an exit excuse from Iran whilst saving some sort of face I think.

I think this may be the best outcome now, an I remain hopeful!

Frontotemporal dementia?

As trump has said at the moment the irg still has a tight grip in the population so I don't think there will be an uprising yet.

I'm hoping at some point there is a tipping point where people feel safer to come out and take over.

Perhaps if they can get into the prisons ,there are future leaders in there apparently and dangerous enemies of the regime.

However I can't see how we get to that point.

Without a ground invasion which would be horrific and messy

I read that the irg has been trained to act in independent sections without a head.

So I can't see how each pocket would be attacked.

They are so incredibly vicious they raped and murdered nurses who helped protesters, they have put 12 year olds on military duty.

On a wider level again I can't see how anyone can secure the straight of humus.
The cost line is so dangerous and long !
They can randomly fire from anywhere.

Yes, I think so. They used the mad sharpie rant as an example.

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Hopefully the two instigators of the illegal war will be appearing at the Hague for war crimes along with despot Putin & convicted to life imprisonment; I doubt they would be executed like they deserve.
The children of Iran will forever seek to kill their enemies that perpetrated the atrocities committed against them & their families, USA will have untold consequences for many decades to come.
Not engaging in this thread , just my opinion.

Well the Americans don’t want a female president - they’ve shown this at least twice.

It'll drag on for months. Depends on what mood Trump is in and how his cronies are doing financially.

Bear in mind Vance or Hegseth will be planning for the November 2028 election. I'd guess Vance is more likely to want to sort it out. Hegseth is also a gung ho lunatic like Trump.....

Well now Trump's just playing with oil prices, today he's said the US will leave Iran in 2-3 weeks so the oil price dips again. Pffft.

The money men and brokers are making a killing ( 500 million I read the other day )
They don’t care about anyone else as long as the money is rolling in!

Women like Thatcher?
(Or Giorgia Meloni, Golda Meir, Alice Weidel, Marine le Pen)....😬

Yes. That's what they love.

Trump just announced that the US would pull back in 2-3 weeks. But whether this is his actual intention or just more market manipulation is anyone's guess. No doubt his family will have shorted the fuck out of oil and gas just before he announced this.

I think trump will just announce he has won and pull out. No regard for whether it’s true or not. Then he’ll call anything that contradicts his version of events ‘fake news’.

Do we believe anything he says? This could be the timeline he and his yes men have decided they need to bump off khamenei junior et al…

and even if the US officially pulls out,
Israel has made no such commitment. The gulf states are going to tam years to rebuild their reputation for stability and economic prosperity even if it ended today…

I'm guessing just like everyone else, but here goes.
Trump will realise there's nothing there for him, tell everyone it's been a huge victory no matter how much evidence to the contrary. He'll believe in his own hype till the day he drops dead. But no-one else will. Even Melania will leave.
Americans will come to realise that their standing in the rest of the world has fallen through the floor and will take years to rebuild. No-one will ever trust them again now that we know they are never more than four years away from electing a totally amoral moron.
Europeans will in theory join together for defence purposes but it'll be slow half-hearted progress. Canada, Australia will also join in a "Nato 2.0". But that will be the good that eventually emerges.
Putin will fail to maximise on the European weakness giving Europe time to arm.

Nations will join together to keep the Straits of Hormuz open.
Terrorism attacks on the West will escalate.
Western governments will struggle to fund the armaments necessary but will prioritise this over welfare, etc.
Life will be tougher for a good long while.

I saw a reel from a qatari minister basically saying we told you this would be a disaster. The royal families of Saudi, qatar, UAE especially have put billions to put their countries attractive as interconnectivity hubs or places to live and work (I know there is some big issues on human rights in these countries but they have slowly tried to put in better rights and laws for workers, not same standard as Europe) that confidence is now gone. Qatar gave trump a brand new jet, probably in the hope that they could be listened to in regards to middle east situations.
In USA situation rooms in the past, top honchos of the military would give their advice to presidents (as far as we know) on what decisions is best to make, I can imagine situations where trump has been told not to do it but goes ahead and gives the orders to get it done anyway, plus he has surrounded himself with yes men in top positions.
Think China will somehow come out on top, or get a deal with Iran to get things flowing to Asia at least.

Unfortunately I think this is going to drag out and go nowhere for some time yet. The airline CEOs are starting to get concerned, O Leary has popped up in media a lot the last few days, you can see he wants to keep things going but is acknowledging that they may need to cut back (which with Ryanair terms I imagine is admitting there is enormous concerns)