Ukraine Invasion: Part 59

[MagicFox]

Well, it’s thread 59.

Thanks to all regular contributors, especially those doing the daily hard work. Slava Ukraini 🇺🇦

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A. The agreed purpose of the thread is for the sharing of information and commentary on current events

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https://x.com/Osint613/status/2005404638447862155 how President Zelensky could listen to this without punching him I don't know. He is a better person than me that's all I can say

United 24 Media:

🔹 The intensity of Russian strikes on Ukraine’s port infrastructure has doubled over the past year, said Oleksiy Kuleba, Deputy Prime Minister for the Reconstruction of Ukraine.

“Russia is striking Ukrainian ports with missiles and drones almost every day, trying to destroy logistics, disrupt exports, and undermine global food security.

In 2025 alone, 90 combined strikes have been recorded — twice as many as during the same period last year. In the Odesa region, nearly 800 air raid alerts have been issued since the beginning of the year, lasting a total of more than 30 days,” he said.

🔸 A final cessation of hostilities requires Kyiv to make a political decision on Donbas, and Ukraine must do so without delay given the current situation on the front, said Putin’s aide Yuri Ushakov.

▪️ The conversation between Putin and Donald Trump took place at the initiative of the U.S. president. They are expected to speak again after Trump’s meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

▪️ The call lasted 1 hour and 15 minutes and was described as friendly, cordial, and businesslike.

▪️ Putin emphasized to Trump the importance of adhering to the understandings reached in Anchorage and during previous bilateral contacts.

▪️ Trump listened to Russia’s assessment of the prospects for a settlement and was convinced of Moscow’s commitment to a political and diplomatic solution. He intends to take this into account during his talks with Zelenskyy.

▪️ Putin agreed with Trump’s proposal to continue work on a settlement through two specially created working groups — one on security and one on economic issues.

▪️ Trump said there are significant prospects for U.S.–Russian economic cooperation if the war in Ukraine ends.

🔸 “Ukraine has also carried out some very strong attacks, and I say that without negativity. There have been several explosions in various parts of Russia,” U.S. President Donald Trump said, commenting on the recent massive Russian strikes.

❗️The meeting between Trump and Zelenskyy has ended.

A video conference between the two presidents and European leaders is now underway.

A press conference is expected to follow.

🔹 The conversation between Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Donald Trump, and European leaders has concluded.

Finnish President Alexander Stubb said it was “good” and lasted more than an hour.

🔸 “We had a terrific meeting. We discussed a lot,” President Trump said.

🔹 “We had discussions on just about every subject, that includes with Putin before.

We went into great detail, and we likewise went into great detail today,” President Trump said.

🔸 President Zelenskyy: The 20-point peace plan is 90% agreed.
• Security guarantees from the U.S.: 100%
• Guarantees from the U.S. and Europe: 90%
• Military dimension: 100%
• Prosperity plan (Ukraine’s restoration) is being finalized

🔹 “We’re getting closer to resolving the issue of the economic zone in Donbas. We will resolve it,” Trump said.

🔸 “I saw a very interesting Putin today, he wants to see it happen. He told me very strongly. I believe him,” President Trump said.

🔹 President Trump: I have no problem with going to Ukraine if it helps to end this war.

🔸 In January, Trump will host Ukrainian and European leaders in Washington. Ukraine is ready for peace, President Zelenskyy said.

He added that the Ukrainian and U.S. teams will finalize all issues discussed today next week.

“We reviewed all aspects of the peace framework and achieved significant results. We also outlined the sequence of next steps. Security guarantees remain key to lasting peace, and our teams will continue working on every aspect,” Zelenskyy said.

🔹 Delivered from Australia, the M1A1 AIM “Abrams” is now in service with the tank company of the 425th Separate Assault Regiment “Skelia”

The tank is equipped with extensive additional armor, including folding nets and Kontakt-1 reactive armor blocks (mounted in a wedge configuration on the turret), as well as extra protective plates on the upper frontal hull. It can be easily distinguished from the American M1A1SA-UKR by its original Australian camouflage.

😡 Dancing on Bones: Russians Open “Restored” Drama Theater in Mariupol — After Destroying It

A Russian airstrike in March 2022 killed hundreds of people there, mostly women and children who were sheltering from the fighting and posed no threat.

The exact number of victims has never been established. The remains of those killed under the rubble were simply covered with concrete by the occupiers.

📜 Trump said he discussed all 20 points of the plan with Putin — President Zelenskyy.

“He said that Putin is ready. I don’t want to go into details now. But I told the president that this is very important for us — this is not the first time Putin says one thing and does another. Words must match actions,” the head of state said.

Oh dear. Just realised I’m duplicating as @ReleaseTheDucksOfWar has already done the round up today.

I’m actually away for the next two Mondays on the high seas with very patchy WiFi so will miss my Monday slot.

Maybe I can give you a few days off when I’m back Ducks?

Oh I hope you're having a nice holiday @DesdamonasHandkerchief ! sorry, I am out of the normal rhythm what with Christmas and New Year.

Happy to do them the next two mondays ... please just remind me when you're back or I'll forget again!

I am going away mid-Feb for a week and a half so I wondered if you and a couple of others could perhaps take over for those days please?

I am so worried that Ukraine is about to be somehow stitched up and in a worse than ever position. And I hope to god that if that happens Europe pulls its bloody finger out and starts properly defending Ukraine. None of it looks good right now.
What I actually wish is that someone would assassinate Putin and Russia would be thrown into a confusion that would halt the war while they sort themselves out.

As an aside, China is circling Taiwan today in a way alarmingly reminiscent of the beginning of the current invasion of Ukraine.
Which is frankly beyond worrying.

I can do weekends. Midweek roundups would be very late in the evening though.

Thank you.
Yes no problem with February dates.

Thank you both very much.

Thank you all, kind rounders-up.

Maybe I could do weekdays and @LlttledrummergirI
could do weekends whilst Ducks is away. Whilst @blueshoes continues her sterling work on the ISW front.

That works for me.
Can you provide the dates please ducks?

The perspective where the Russians loaned Krasnov money back when no reputable lender would touch the serial bankrupt.

Putin now accuses Ukraine of a drone attack on his presidential residence which Zelensky denies.

understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-28-2025/

Key Takeaways

1. US and Ukrainian delegations met in Florida on December 28 to discuss the latest US-Ukrainian-European 20-point peace plan and other documents related to a potential peace settlement.
2. Recent Kremlin statements are at odds with several of the positions that Trump presented as the basis for ending the war.
3. Russian President Vladimir Putin and high-ranking Russian military commanders continue to aggrandize tactical details to create the false impression that Ukrainian defenses across the frontline are on the verge of collapse.
4. Putin and the commanders continue to falsely portray future Russian efforts to seize the Fortress Belt in Donetsk Oblast as a quick and easy endeavor.
5. ISW has observed recent open-source evidence to assess that Ukrainian forces maintain a presence in Rodynske and that Russian forces have operated within less than half of Myrnohrad.
6. ISW has only observed open-source evidence to assess that Russian forces have operated in roughly 55 percent of Hulyaipole.
7. Russia appears to be increasing the sophistication of its cognitive warfare effort that uses flag raisings to achieve informational impacts.
8. Putin’s meeting with military commanders platformed on-the-ground tactical commanders in an effort to lend credence to the Russian military command’s aggrandized claims.
9. Putin and Russian military commanders continue to discuss the need to form “buffer zones” in areas of Ukraine outside of the four oblasts Russia illegally annexed in 2022.
10. Russian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk and Hulyaipole.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

⚡️Trump, Putin hold phone call (kyivindependent.com/trump-putin-hold-phone-call-following-zelenskys-visit-to-florida/) following Zelensky's visit to Florida.
"President Trump has concluded a positive call with President Putin concerning Ukraine," said White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt.

⚡️'They are looking for a pretext' — Zelensky denies drone attack (kyivindependent.com/they-are-preparing-the-ground-for-new-strikes-zelensky-denies-drone-attack-on-putins-residence/)on Putin's residence
President Volodymyr Zelensky dismissed Russia's claims that Ukrainian drones attempted to attack a state residence of Russian President Vladimir Putin as "another lie," warning that Moscow is using the allegation to justify potential strikes, "most likely on Kyiv."
Earlier on Dec. 29, Russian independent media outlet Meduza reported, citing official statements by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, that Ukrainian drones had allegedly attempted to strike Putin's state residence with 91 drones in Russia's Novgorod Oblast overnight.
[and if he did, so what? when Russia invaded it sent assassination squads into the Ukrainian government building to kill zelenskyy!]

⚡️Trump 'very angry' (kyivindependent.com/trump-very-angry-about-alleged-ukrainian-attack-on-putin-residence/) about alleged Ukrainian attack on Putin residence.

Exclusive: 'Be careful' — European leaders warned Zelensky to assess Trump's real stance at Mar-a-Lago
(kyivindependent.com/european-leaders-warned-zelensky-to-assess-real-us-stance-at-trump-meeting/)
A day before President Volodymyr Zelensky met U.S. President Donald Trump, European leaders privately warned the Ukrainian president that the talks could go badly and urged him to "be careful," according to detailed notes from the call shared with the Kyiv Independent by a senior diplomatic source.

'A continuous field of battle' — Huliaipole becomes gray zone (kyivindependent.com/a-continuous-field-of-battle-huliaipole-turns-into-a-gray-zone-as-fighting-intensifies-in-zaporizhzhia-oblast-southern-command-spokesperson-says/) as fighting intensifies in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, Southern Command says
Ukrainian forces continue to hold positions across most of Huliaipole, but defending the city is becoming increasingly difficult as heavy fighting turns it into a nearly continuous battlefield, according to a recent assessment by DeepState monitoring group, published on Dec. 29.

Ukraine could forfeit $4.2B in EU funds (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-could-forfeit-4-2b-in-eu-funds-after-missing-reform-conditions/) after missing reform conditions
Ukraine could forfeit 3.6 billion euros ($4.2 billion) in EU funds after failing to fulfill conditions required for the money to be disbursed, according to a new report.

Ukraine war latest: 76% of Ukrainians reject (kyivindependent.com/ukraine-war-latest-update-2025-12-29/) recognizing occupied territories as Russian to end war, poll finds
A new poll found 76% of Ukrainians consider it unacceptable to recognize Russian-occupied Ukrainian territories as part of Russia in exchange for ending the war; Zelensky dismissed Russia's claims that Ukrainian drones attempted to attack Putin's state residence as "another lie;" and more.

⚡️Zelensky says Moscow’s 2025 advance costs 31,000 Russian soldiers (kyivindependent.com/we-cant-just-withdraw-from-our-territories-zelensky-says-following-his-meeting-with-trump/) killed every month.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦
‪@ragnarbjartur.bsky.social‬
⚡️ RUSSIA'S WAR AGAINST UKRAINE — DEC 30, 2025
■ Engagements below average, but casualties remain high; no area change; snow in Kharkiv and Pokrovsk
■ Visually confirmed batch: 32 🇷🇺 : 8 🇺🇦 — 0.9x over the last 90 days (1.2x in 2025)
■ Overnight attacks: double-digit, two Iskander-M missiles; good interception rate, including one of the missiles
■ Fewer strikes on both sides

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

⚡️President Zelenskyy denied the statement by Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov about an alleged Ukrainian drone attack on Putin’s residence in the Novgorod region on December 29.
The president said that Russia is trying to disrupt the negotiation process and is laying the groundwork for possible strikes on government buildings in Kyiv.
Lavrov claimed that because of the “drone attack” on Putin’s residence, Russia may “reconsider its position” in the talks and is “preparing a retaliatory strike.”

Russia’s Defense Ministry claimed it shot down drones over regions that don’t even border the Novgorod region.
The ministry said that on the night of December 29, Russian air defenses repelled an attack by 91 Ukrainian UAVs targeting Putin’s residence in the Novgorod region.
According to their statement, 49 drones were “intercepted” over the Bryansk region and one over Smolensk. In the Novgorod region itself, 18 UAVs were allegedly shot down by 7:00 a.m., and another 23 between 7:00 and 9:00.
At the same time, Bryansk and Smolensk regions do not border the Novgorod region — they only border each other.

On September 7, 2025, as peace efforts to end the war were underway, Russia launched a large-scale strike on Kyiv, hitting several districts including the government quarter. One of the missiles struck Ukraine's Cabinet of Ministers building, damaging the structure.

Latvia has completed construction of a 280-kilometer fence along its border with Russia, according to the state-owned company Valsts Nekustamie Ipašumi, which oversaw the project.
Interior Minister Rihards Kozlovskis said that installation of high-tech equipment along the border is still ongoing.
Work on border infrastructure also continues, including patrol roads, pedestrian bridges, and other engineering structures.

❗️Ukraine is interested in reparations, — President Zelenskyy
“It is important for us to receive funds to restore the state. As for reparations loans, we have already agreed on this with our European partners, since most of Russia’s frozen assets are located there. I am glad they supported our position,” the president said.
According to Zelenskyy, Ukraine will receive the first $100 billion over the next two years in equal tranches.
“If there is no war, this money will go toward rebuilding the country. If we have to defend ourselves, then we will have the resources to do so,” he added.

The leadership in Kyiv must be given a mandate to conclude peace agreements, which can only be achieved through elections, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said in an interview with the propaganda outlet RIA Novosti.
According to him, a transparent and fair election campaign must be held with the participation of all political forces. He also claimed that Ukrainians, including those living in Russia, should be given the opportunity to determine their future.
Other statements by Lavrov:
▫️ Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s presidential term expired in May 2024. Elections in Ukraine must be held in accordance with the law. The United States, he claimed, holds a similar view;
▫️ Organizing a vote should not be used as a pretext for a temporary ceasefire aimed at rearming the Ukrainian Armed Forces;
▫️ Elections are not an end in themselves. The priority, he said, should be legally binding guarantees to eliminate the “root causes” of the conflict;
▫️ A system of security guarantees must be established, and Russia proposed dialogue on this issue to the United States back in September;
▫️ Draft treaties submitted by Moscow to Washington and European capitals in December 2021 could serve as a basis for negotiations;
▫️ The foundations on which Ukrainian statehood was recognized by Russia and the international community must be restored;
▫️ Ukraine must have neutral, non-aligned, and nuclear-free status, be demilitarized and “denazified,” and NATO’s military presence must be stopped;
▫️ The rights of Russian and Russian-speaking citizens must be guaranteed, and what he called persecution of canonical Orthodoxy must end;
▫️ Kyiv and its Western partners must recognize the “new territorial realities,” including Russia’s claimed annexation of Crimea, Sevastopol, and parts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions.

The State Border Service of Ukraine has released a video compilation featuring wildlife captured by cameras throughout the year. https://t.me/United24media/38606

Kyiv Post Telegram Highlights

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said that Russia’s peace talks will now be conducted only with the United States, adding that Moscow’s position will harden.

Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council Secretary Umerov and President Zelensky have agreed with Witkoff on further contacts and next steps.
According to Umerov, the work is ongoing intensively and in a substantive manner, with consultations and document coordination continuing almost daily. He added that Ukraine remains in constant contact with European national security advisers and that the parties have agreed to hold further talks in the near future.

The Trump administration has unveiled a plan in Geneva to overhaul the UN’s humanitarian system, (www.kyivpost.com/post/67133) framing the reforms as a way to cut costs, build diplomatic leverage, and push parties toward peacemaking, rather than focusing solely on aid delivery.

Former chief of Ukraine‘s army and current ambassador to the UK, Valery Zaluzhny, will reportedly resign as ambassador in January. (https://www.kyivpost.com/post/67111)

Zelensky says any peace agreement would require a national referendum, (www.kyivpost.com/post/67112) a 60-day ceasefire and approval by Congress, alongside a US “prosperity package” to support Ukraine’s recovery.

Amid the ongoing war, at least 26 Ukrainian journalists remain imprisoned (www.kyivpost.com/post/66305) by Russian authorities, where they often face torture and even death. Meanwhile, advocacy groups continue to push for their release.

Pokrovsk: The Russian Meat Grinder: In this exclusive winter 2025 situation report, former SEAL Team 6 Squadron Leader Chuck Pfarrer exposes the catastrophic reality of the Russian offensive near Pokrovsk.
https://www.kyivpost.com/videos/67128

Putin’s forces struck Zaporizhzhia overnight, (www.kyivpost.com/post/67139) damaging infrastructure and homes and injuring a woman, while air defense forces repelled overnight attacks on Odesa amid nationwide alerts.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

Commander-in-Chief of the AFU, Oleksandr Syrskyi, stated that Russian troops control approximately half of Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region.
According to the Commander-in-Chief, Russia is currently concentrating nearly 50% of all its KAB (guided aerial bomb) strikes on this specific direction.
The goal is to destroy buildings, especially high-rises, which can be used to station drone operators, conduct fire, and deploy long-range systems or snipers.

Putin's press secretary, Dmitry Peskov, stated that the Kremlin's condition for ceasing hostilities is the complete withdrawal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) beyond the borders of Donbas.

FT: Poland accelerates construction of bomb shelters amid growing threat from the Russian Federation.
Starting in 2026, Poland will require developers to include shelters in most new buildings, and plans are underway to adapt the Warsaw Metro into a safe haven. Overall, the government has already allocated 16 billion PLN (€3.8 billion) for shelter construction.
This move comes against a backdrop of regular hybrid threats from Russia, which have exposed gaps in the country's civil defense, the publication writes.
Although Poland spends nearly 5% of its GDP on defense, investment in public protection has been minimal. Most existing shelters were built during the communist era and are currently in poor condition. Only about 1,000 facilities are considered suitable, capable of accommodating just 3% of the population.

87% of Ukrainians support peace, while 85% oppose withdrawing from Donbas, Zelenskyy said in an interview published by Fox News.
This was his response to Trump’s statement that, according to polls, up to 90% of people in Ukraine want peace.

❗️Donald Trump will consider 50-year security guarantees for Ukraine, and the peace plan will be put to a referendum.
Key takeaways from Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s conversation with journalists:
🔴Security Guarantees: The US has agreed to strong security guarantees for Ukraine for 15 years. Ukraine is proposing to extend this to 30–50 years, noting that the war has already lasted nearly 15 years. President Trump said he would "think about it."
🔴Trump-Putin Talk: Trump discussed all 20 points of the plan with Putin during a long conversation. He relayed what Putin is ready for, but Zelenskyy is not disclosing details yet. It is crucial for Ukraine that Putin's words match his actions.
🔴Future Meetings: A meeting at the level of national security advisors is planned first. This will be followed by a meeting of European leaders and the "Coalition of the Willing," then a meeting with European leaders and Trump in January. Only after these stages will a meeting with the Russians take place.
🔴End of Martial Law: Ending martial law requires security guarantees, including monitoring and the presence of partners. Obtaining these guarantees will signal the war's end. The timing will also depend on Ukrainian military commanders confirming that infrastructure is ready.
🔴Peace Plan & Referendum: The 20-point plan is intended for a national referendum to ensure public support. There is currently no final agreement on two points: the Zaporizhzhia NPP and the territories.
🔴Donetsk Region: There is no detailed concept yet for a Free Economic Zone in the Donetsk region. Russia demands a total withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the region, but Ukraine will act in its own interests.
🔴Meeting with Putin: Zelenskyy is ready to meet the Russian leader, but only if Putin’s actions match his words. Currently, Putin talks of peace to Trump while continuing attacks on Ukraine.

Overnight, residents reported explosions at the "Khanskaya" military airfield.
The airfield is located in Maykop, the capital of the Republic of Adygea, which borders Russia's Krasnodar Krai, where explosions were also heard.
The base houses the 272nd Training Aviation Regiment. Russian authorities claimed to have downed 89 drones, 11 of which were over the territory of the Republic of Adygea.
Drones also targeted Russia’s Bryansk, Novgorod, Rostov, and Smolensk regions.

Air defense neutralized 52 out of 60 Russian drones and one ballistic missile overnight
Here is what is known about the consequences:
Dnipropetrovsk Region: A 67-year-old woman was injured following the attack. The Russian army struck the region with drones; air defense shot down 3 UAVs.
Zaporizhzhia: A blast wave from the attack in the city damaged two apartment buildings and four private houses. A 43-year-old woman sought medical help for a shrapnel wound.

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-29-2025/

Key Takeaways

1. The Kremlin accused Ukraine of conducting a long-range drone strike targeting Russian President Vladimir Putin’s residence in Novgorod Oblast on December 29.
2. The circumstances of this alleged strike do not conform to the pattern of observed evidence when Ukrainian forces conduct strikes into Russia.
3. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky refuted the alleged strike against Putin’s residence in Novgorod Oblast and warned that Russia will use this claim to justify strikes against Kyiv City and Ukrainian government buildings.
4. The Kremlin may intend to use this claimed strike to justify its rejection of any peace proposals that come out of recent bilateral US-Ukrainian and multilateral US-Ukrainian-European talks.
5. Russian President Vladimir Putin and high-ranking Russian military commanders held another meeting to aggrandize tactical details and create the false impression that the front lines across Ukraine are on the verge of collapse.
6. Pro-war Russian ultranationalist milbloggers are publicly acknowledging that the Russian military command’s claims are exaggerated.
7. Russian forces continue to commit war crimes in the Hulyaipole and Pokrovsk directions.
8. Several dozen Belarusian smuggling balloons illegally entered Polish airspace, and Polish aircraft intercepted a Russian reconnaissance aircraft near the international border overnight on December 24 to December 25.
9. Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Siversk, Oleksandrivka, and Hulyaipole. Russian forces recently advanced in western Zaporizhia Oblast, in the Dobropillya tactical area, and near Pokrovsk.

The Kremlin accused Ukraine of conducting a long-range drone strike targeting Russian President Vladimir Putin’s residence

Bless, so the Russians expect to be able to carry on bombing the crap out of every average Ukrainians residence but Ukraine musn't even contemplate cracking a tile on Vlad's roof.....

If I believed Putin about that, I'd be shopping for a bridge he could sell me as well.

I thought this was fairly insightful, particularly regarding the political situation for Trump.

https://www.wsj.com/opinion/how-to-read-the-ukraine-talks-67e83601?st=qbS2Xi&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

@MissConductUS that is an interesting read. Thanks for sharing the wsj link.

Mr. Trump plays the neutral, disinterested mediator (and gets away with it) even while his administration supplies weapons, training and tactical intelligence to Ukraine ... Mr. Putin swallows it.

Is that true - that Trump makes Russian-friendly statements but turns a blind eye to his administration doing the opposite?

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-30-2025/

Key Takeaways

1. The Kremlin continues to offer no evidence to support its claims that Ukrainian drones targeted Russian President Vladimir Putin’s residence on the night of December 28 to 29 and even rejected the notion that it should provide evidence.
2. Kremlin officials are using the alleged Ukrainian strike against Novgorod Oblast to justify Russia’s continued insistence that both Ukraine and the West capitulate to Russia’s original demands from 2021 and 2022.
3. Russian forces continue to increase the range of their drones to strike deeper into Ukraine, underscoring Ukraine’s urgent requirements for traditional air defense systems.
4. The Kremlin is moving forward with efforts to mobilize active reservists compulsorily, likely to eventually deploy reservists to combat in Ukraine as Russia continues to suffer a disproportionately high casualty rate compared to its territorial gains.
5. Russian President Vladimir Putin officially enacted into law on December 29 the 2026 conscription decree which will transition Russia’s conscription cycle away from biannual spring and fall conscription cycles to a single year-round conscription cycle.
6. Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk and Kupyansk.