Ukraine Invasion: Part 45

[MagicFox]

Thanks to all: contributors, lurkers and those in-between

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The Royal British Legion Festival of remembrance have just brought a Ukrainian flag to the drumhead.

Touching

I was so pleased to see that.

Just come to spend a few minutes here with you all. It seems the right place to be on Remembrance Sunday.

My thoughts are with all those in peril from war right now.

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

The U.S.'s support for Ukraine will most likely decrease, and the EU should have the political willingness to continue to send aid regardless, the EU's top diplomat Josep Borrell said at the Congress of the Party of European Socialists in Malaga, Spain, on Nov. 11. https://kyivindependent.com/borrell-us-support-for-ukraine-will-most-likely-decrease-eu-should-be-ready/

Germany's coalition government agreed this week to double the budget for military aid for Ukraine in 2024, Bild reported on Nov. 11, citing information from the German Defense Ministry. https://kyivindependent.com/bild-german-budget-doubles-military-aid-for-ukraine/

⚡️ Microsoft: Russia spreading Middle East disinformation https://kyivindependent.com/microsoft-russia-spreading-middle-east-disinformation/
Russia is actively manufacturing disinformation about the Middle East according to Microsoft vice chair and president Brad Smith, the Times of Israel reported.
Tech giants are increasingly using artificial intelligence systems to combat disinformation activities by state actors.

Ukrainian officials in November counted 4.9 million internally displaced persons (IDPs), with 3.6 million of them receiving IDP status Ukrinform reported. https://kyivindependent.com/ghost/#/editor/post/65503f6b7b6218e52bcebfc4

Military: Russia increases activity near Avdiivka. https://kyivindependent.com/military-russia-escalates-airstrikes-in-southeastern-axes/

⚡️Military: Russia escalates (https://kyivindependent.com/military-russia-escalates-airstrikes-in-southeastern-axes/) airstrikes in southeastern axe

⚡️General Staff: Russia attacked https://kyivindependent.com/general-staff-russia-attacked-120-settlements-in-8-regions-over-the-past-day/ 120 settlements in 8 regions over past day.

⚡️Energy Ministry: Russian attacks on energy infrastructure impact https://kyivindependent.com/energy-ministry-russian-attacks-on-energy-infrastructure-impact-6-oblasts-thousands-without-power/ 6 oblasts, thousands without power.

Several EU countries, including Germany, have voiced hesitation about supporting a $21 billion EU fund for military aid for Ukraine that is intended to be disbursed over four years, especially about the prospect of committing the money in advance, Reuters reported on Nov. 11, citing unnamed diplomats. https://kyivindependent.com/reuters-8/

Under deadly attacks, Kherson fights to keep life going 1 year after liberation https://kyivindependent.com/under-deadly-attacks-kherson-fights-to-keep-life-going-1-year-after-liberation/ Russian forces have intensified their shelling of Kherson and its surrounding areas over the past weeks, killing civilians almost daily.

⚡️Minister: Crowdfunded sea drone fleet strikes 8 Russian targets https://kyivindependent.com/minister-ukrainian-sea-drones-strike-8-russian-targets-in-year/ in first year of operation.
A fleet of Ukrainian naval drones, launched as a result of an international crowdfunding campaign, has struck eight key Russian targets in the first year of its operation, Digital Transformation Minister Mykhailo Fedorov said on Facebook on Nov. 11.

Ukrainian forces on Nov. 11 regained control of the village of Topoli in Kharkiv Oblast and raised the national flag. https://kyivindependent.com/ukraine-regains-town-in-kharkiv-oblast-raises-flag/

What can you say .... as well as the personnel losses, how can Russia absorb the equipment losses at this rate and keep going?

Ragnar Gudmundsson
WAR IN #UKRAINE - NOV 12
■ Strikes close to average, combat engagements above
■ Record high 7-day troop losses, 4th highest daily losses
■ Equipment losses above average as well
■ Special equipment, APVs & artillery well above average

UNITED24 Media Telegram Highlights

The NATO Ex-General, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, suggests admitting Ukraine into the Alliance without extending guarantees to the occupied territories. He proposes that Article 5 of the Washington Treaty should not apply to regions currently occupied by Russia.
Rasmussen asserts that Ukraine's partial membership plan does not signify a freeze in the conflict but rather a strong message to Russia that it cannot impede Ukraine's NATO accession.
He emphasizes that the matter of Ukraine's NATO membership should not be delayed further and cannot be postponed until next year.

The U.S. is reportedly working to impede Russia from dominating the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market, according to FT. Despite EU countries continuing to import Russian LNG due to reduced pipeline gas supplies, the U.S. had initially avoided disrupting supplies to support allies facing shortages.
However, in early November, the U.S. State Department imposed sanctions on Russia's new Arctic LNG 2 project, effectively preventing countries in Europe and Asia from purchasing gas when it commences production next year.

President Macron stated that December will be a critical period for the war in Ukraine. He emphasized that allowing Russia to prevail in the conflict could result in a new imperial power in Europe, posing a threat to other former Soviet states like Georgia and Kazakhstan, as well as the entire continent.

📞 Russians from the territory of the Russian Federation are reportedly recruiting Ukrainian children and coercing them into reporting alleged bombings of Ukrainian schools. Ombudsman Dmytro Lubinets highlights that this phenomenon has taken on a systemic nature throughout the entire country.
Between September 1 and October 20, 2023, the National Police of Ukraine has received 708 reports concerning threats of school mines.

After the morning missile attack on Kyiv, there is an injured tigress from the Animal Rescue Center. The animal got scared, hit the grate, fell, and is currently unable to get up.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

In an interview Musk again calls for Ukraine to surrender and for us all to sympathize with all the Russians that are getting hurt while murdering people in Ukraine

🇺🇦🇵🇱 Ukraine to try to persuade Polish carriers to lift blockade on Monday
On November 13, a meeting will be held at the border with representatives of the Polish authorities and carriers to unblock the checkpoints.
They will discuss Ukraine's proposal to run empty trucks through the Uhryniv-Dolhobychuv checkpoint, where there is a lane available. This option would allow empty trucks to reduce the waiting time for crossing the border.

I went to monument yesterday and after the 2 minutes silence my daughter placed a cross on which I had drawn a Ukrainian flag and written Heroyam Slava.
Sorry, it's out of focus, but you get the idea.

Her schoolfriend Alisa is from Ukraine and is distraught after all the talk of fallen heroes at school. She is here as a guest with her mother D and Babushka Tatiana, while her father stayed behind to fight (so far thank god still with us).

She is only 6, far too young to be worried about these things.

Thats absolutely lovely @BezMills

Her poor schoolfriend.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-11-2023

Key Takeaways:

• Russian forces launched a large-scale missile and drone strike series against Ukraine on the night of November 10 to 11, targeting Kyiv Oblast for the first time in 52 days.
• Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) was reportedly involved in at least one of three strikes on Russian territory on November 10-11.
• Continued Russian milblogger discussion of widespread Russian infantry-led frontal assaults highlights the challenges Russia will face in using massed infantry assaults to offset the problems contributing to the current positional warfare identified by Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Valerii Zaluzhnyi.
• Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov appears to be increasingly sidelining his eldest son, 18-year-old Akhmat Kadyrov, in favor of his younger son Adam Kadyrov.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk City, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and advanced near Avdiivka.
• Russian authorities have reportedly launched another large-scale crypto-mobilization wave.
• Russian authorities continue efforts to fill out the workforce and artificially alter the demographics of occupied Ukraine.

❤❤❤

It is hard for an adult to process, much less a 6 year old without the knowledge and understanding of the world. I am so sorry for her. Prayers her father makes it to peace time.

Program on Channel 4 just now. Russia's lost boys

I wonder if they'll show any empathy towards the Ukrainians they are murdering

That's so lovely @BezMills. Light in the dark

Kyiv Independent Telegram Highlights

Russian forces have intensified their assaults near occupied Bakhmut in Donetsk Oblast as they attempt to take control of nearby positions, Ground Forces Commander Oleksandr Syrskyi reported on Nov. 12. https://kyivindependent.com/commander-russia-intensifies-warfare-near-bakhmut/

⚡️General Staff: Ukraine repels https://kyivindependent.com/general-staff-ukraine-repels-most-attacks-at-marinka-and-avdiivka-over-past-day/ most attacks at Marinka and Avdiivka over past day. [ "Most". Which presumably means Ru advanced in the areas where they were not repelled]

The U.S. is directly targeting Russia’s ability to export liquefied natural gas (LNG) for the first time, which could disrupt global energy markets — something Washington has so far looked to avoid, the Financial Times reported on Nov. 12. https://kyivindependent.com/ft-us-seeks-to-foil-russias-zeal-to-become-major-lng-exporter/

Russia, West fight for Kazakhstanhttps://kyivindependent.com/russia-west-fight-for-kazakhstan-as-astana-plays-both-sides/ as Astana plays both sides
During his trip to Kazakhstan on Nov. 9 for the Russia-Kazakhstan Interregional Cooperation Forum, Putin faced an unusual welcome.
The details of his recent visit may signify that the dynamics of Russian-Kazakh relations have shifted

⚡️Ukraine's military intelligence: Blast kills at least 3 Russian officers https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-military-intelligence-blast-kills-at-least-3-russian-officers-at-military-headquarter-in-occupied-melitopol/ at military headquarters in occupied Melitopol.
The explosion was allegedly carried out by representatives of the local resistance movement.

Ukraine's air defenses have become more powerful compared to the previous year thanks to the support of partner countries, President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Nov. 12. https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-ukrainian-sky-shield-more-powerful-than-last-year/

⚡️Air Force: Ukraine adapts https://kyivindependent.com/air-force-ukraine-can-adapt-soviet-air-defense-systems-to-fire-u-s-missiles/ Soviet Buk-M1 air defense systems to fire US missiles.

⚡️ Official: Hungarian government to ask citizens https://kyivindependent.com/hungarian-foreign-ministry-secretary-claims/ whether they want Ukraine in EU.

Ukrainian delegation led by Economy Minister Yuliia Svyrydenko arrived in the U.S., Presidential Office head Andriy Yermak said on Telegram on Nov. 12. https://kyivindependent.com/yermak-ukrainian-delegation-lands-in-us-to-discuss-defense-cooperation/

⚡️Scholz: Negotiations https://kyivindependent.com/scholz-negotiations-with-putin-possible-if-russia-withdraws-troops/ with Putin possible if Russia withdraws troops.

⚡️ National Resistance Center: Russia uses civilian airlines https://kyivindependent.com/national-resistance-center-russia-uses-civilian-airlines-to-transport-troops/ to transport troops.

⚡️Finnish Border Guard reports spike in asylum seekers https://kyivindependent.com/finnish-border-guard-reports-spike-in-asylum-seekers-traveling-from-russia/ traveling from Russia, arriving without required travel documents at Finland's southeast border in a statement on Nov. 12.

Architects short of government support https://kyivindependent.com/architecture-story/ not ideas to house refugees
In the wake of Russia’s full-scale invasion, Ukrainian architecture studios conceived promising pilot projects that could be quickly built to house refugees. But more than a year into the war, only a handful of projects have been completed due to lack of funds and governmental support to scale them up.

'Only' 800 deaths.

Ragnar Bjartur Gudmundsson 🇺🇦 AT ragnarbjartur.bsky.social

⚡️ WAR IN #UKRAINE - NOV 13
■ Combat engagements close to average, strikes below
■ Daily troop losses below average but 7-day losses at record level
■ Relatively few equipment losses reported

UNITED24 media Telegram Highlights

Today, Ukraine and Poland are scheduled to engage in negotiations to address the blockade of checkpoints along the border. The ongoing obstruction by Polish truck drivers is persisting, leading to escalating queues at the border.

The Armed Forces are set to receive F-16s this winter, with former CIA director Petraeus noting that Ukrainian pilots exhibit rapid learning capabilities.

According to The Economist/YouGov survey, more than a third of US citizens support reducing military aid to Ukraine.
Specifically, 31% favor reducing support, 23% are in favor of increasing assistance, and 27% prefer maintaining the current level. Among Republicans, 50% support reducing aid, while 14% support an increase. Democrats lean towards an increase (38%) rather than a decrease (12%), and Independents are more likely to support a cut (31%) than an increase (17%).
Regarding perceived threats, 34% of US adults surveyed believe that both the Russian-Ukrainian war and the conflict between Israel and Hamas pose threats to the US. However, the conflict in the Middle East is seen as a greater threat by Americans, with 24% considering it more significant compared to 18% for the Russian-Ukrainian war. Republicans are more likely to view the Israel-Hamas conflict (37%) as a greater threat than the Russian-Ukrainian war (9%). Democrats are divided, with 30% considering the war in Ukraine a greater threat, and 17% viewing the Israel-Hamas conflict as such.

Russian state agencies TASS and RIA Novosti initially reported that the Ministry of Defense of Russia had made a decision to relocate troops "to more strategically favorable positions east of the Dnipro" in the Kherson region. However, TASS later "retracted" the message, citing an alleged accidental publication.

Live: Ukraine Telegram Highlights

🇳🇴 The Norwegian government has allocated another 84 million euros for humanitarian support to Ukraine through Norwegian specialized organizations.
The funds will be used primarily to support people who have lost their homes, as well as education, medical services, psychological support, and the protection of civilians.

🇨🇿 In the Czech Republic, 384 criminal cases have been opened for publicly supporting Russia's war against Ukraine.
Police are also tracking possible crimes related to the war between Israel and Hamas. So far, law enforcement has registered 14 "cases of extremism with an anti-Semitic context."

All change in the UK Cabinet…..Cameron back as Foreign Secretary!

what? Actually think he'll do a good job there. (don't love saying that, but it's actually refreshing to see the govt jobs actually going to MPs who have some experience, rather than talentless toadies)

Goodbye evil Suella (as she wished.)

Ps don't bother with the Musk podcast. He says nothing. Nothing.

I’m with you Bez. Consistency and experience will be most welcome right now. Cleverly is now Home Sec.

Of course the irony is he's not even an MP! They've had to make him Lord Cameron in order to make him eligible for a ministerial role.

That said he is at least a serious character!

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-12-2023

Key Takeaways:

• Ukraine appears to be intensifying attacks against Russian military, logistics, and other high-profile assets in rear areas in occupied Ukraine and Russia.
• The Russian government is attempting to downplay the extent of its efforts to strengthen control over the Russian information space.
• Russia continues to posture itself as a prominent security guarantor for authoritarian countries in Africa.
• Russian forces conducted a limited series of missile strikes targeting southern Ukraine on November 12.
• Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
• Ukrainian forces made a marginal gain on the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast on November 12 amid ongoing ground operations.

I cannot see that UK Min of Def has put up their usual Ukraine update. Maybe they are taking a break after Remembrance Day yesterday.

Doesn't Cameron being FS mean we now have a FS who cannot speak in the House of Commons and so cannot be challenged directly by our elected MPs?

@blueshoes

"I cannot see that UK Min of Def has put up their usual Ukraine update. Maybe they are taking a break after Remembrance Day yesterday."

I have no idea why the updates are sometimes difficult to find but never fear, somebody is at work in the MoD today:

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1724041976738206049?refsrc=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet