Ukraine Invasion: Part 45

[MagicFox]

Thanks to all: contributors, lurkers and those in-between

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Swedish press reporting that Germany, Austria and the EU (Gaza's biggest donor) have suspended aid payments to Gaza until further notice.

'There can be no business as usual' EU representative

www.dn.se/varlden/eu-fryser-bistand-till-palestina/

The US DoD has specifically warned Hezbollah and Iran of retaliation if they get involved in the fighting.

U.S. Helps Israel Defend Against Hamas Attacks

Apparently a high ranking Palestinian is costing Moscow ..... strange bedfellows.

I think the concern here is Russia taking every opportunity of taking advantage of the Gaza conflagration. One repercussion is that there may be a bout of Islamist extremism which will add a diversion to Western governments. I don't this will effect Ukrainina support of aid but western populations will have another concern when thinking about international politics.

By the way this may be a good point to recognise. IS and UK citizens were killed in Gaza so we have an input to some degree about Israel's response the US certainly have been open about weapon provision.

the propaganda opportunity I think Russia will take is that given the invasion of Gaza will be costly in terms of human lives Russia will point out that these are being caused by a US ally and therefore in some way minimising or pointing out club able standards about the obvious targeting of civilians in Ukraine.

I suppose from a global perspective questions will be asked about international courts bringing action against Putin when the Israeli leadership will obviously not (and rightly) face such action when we inevitabl y see civilian buildings (e.g. Mosques) being destroyed when sheltering arms and fighters.

I hope the Israeli conflict is over soon as in terms of high intensity offensive action as to not provide a continuous global diversion to the actions of Russia.

visting

doubke

To me this is clear. "Do not even think about mobilisation as happened in 1967 and 1973".

Sky News reporting that the US might look to combine funding for Ukraine and Israel in an effort to secure support in Congress.

I had also seen reports that the US are likely to provide Patriot batteries to Israel, whilst clearly needed surely this potentially impacts the provision of air defence etc. for Ukraine - something that'll be vital as we head towards Winter and Russia's likely attempts to destroy energy infrastructure again.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-9-2023

Key Takeaways:

• The Kremlin remains focused on promoting the purported legality and legitimacy of Russian internal politics despite Kremlin officials’ admissions to the contrary.
• Peskov’s strong comments also indicate the Kremlin's desire to posture confidence and steadfastness against the backdrop of Kremlin concerns over Russian opinions on and support for Putin‘s invasion of Ukraine.
• Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations and reportedly advanced in western Zaporizhia Oblast and near Bakhmut on October 9 amid reports of deteriorating weather conditions in Ukraine.
• Russian forces reportedly launched localized offensive operations south of Hulyaipole, Zaporizhia Oblast, and may have reorganized the Southern Grouping of Forces, likely in an attempt to further defend against Ukrainian counteroffensive operations.
• Imprisoned former Russian officer and ardent nationalist Igor Girkin reiterated his previous claims that the Russian military will continue to conduct a strategic defense to freeze the frontlines before the Russian presidential elections in March 2024.
• The Russian government is moving toward revoking Russia’s ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty.
• Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, in western Donetsk Oblast, in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and advanced in some areas on October 9.
• Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations near Bakhmut, in western Donetsk Oblast, and western Zaporizhia Oblast, and reportedly advanced in some areas.

• Russian Main Effort – Eastern Ukraine (comprised of two subordinate main efforts)
• Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Capture the remainder of Luhansk Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and encircle northern Donetsk Oblast
• Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast
• Russian Supporting Effort – Southern Axis

Kyiv Independent Telegram

⚡️Washington Post: White House considers attaching Ukraine funding https://kyivindependent.com/washington-post-white-house-considers-attaching-ukraine-funding-to-israel-aid-package/ to Israel aid package.
This approach aims to enhance the likelihood of Congress approving assistance for Ukraine, despite facing growing opposition from House Republicans.

UN official visits https://kyivindependent.com/un-official-visits-moscow-for-talks-on-grain-exports/ Moscow for talks on grain exports.

⚡️Russian media: Palestinian president to visit https://kyivindependent.com/russian-media-palestinian-president-to-visit-moscow/ Moscow.
Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas is planning a visit to Moscow, Russian news outlet RBK claimed on Oct. 9.

⚡️Military intelligence: Russia gives Hamas weapons https://kyivindependent.com/military-intelligence-russia-gives-hamas-weapons-captured-in-ukraine-to-discredit-kyiv/ captured in Ukraine to discredit Kyiv.

⚡️ PM Shmyhal: 6 million people threatened by mines in Ukraine. https://kyivindependent.com/pm-shmyhal-6-million-people-threatened-by-mines-in-ukraine/

⚡️Zelensky replaces https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-replaces-commander-of-territorial-defense-forces/ commander of Territorial Defense Forces. The new commander, General Major Barhylevych, was the deputy chief of staff of the Ground Forces Command.

⚡️Zelensky to meet https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-to-visit-romania/ with Romanian president in Bucharest.

⚡️ Ministry: Azerbaijan to provide Ukraine with new batch of energy equipment this year. https://kyivindependent.com/ministry-azerbaijan-to-provide-ukraine-with-another-batch-of-energy-equipment/

⚡️ Government allocates $50 million for restoration of transport infrastructure. https://kyivindependent.com/government-allocates-50-million-to-restoration-of-logistics-infrastructure/

⚡️Venice Commission opinion criticizes https://kyivindependent.com/venice-commission-criticizes-draft-law-that-bans-members-of-pro-russian-parties-from-future-elections/ Ukraine's ban on pro-Russian politicians running for office.

‘I want to go home’: Inside a Russian prisoner of war camp in Ukraine https://kyivindependent.com/inside-a-russian-prisoner-of-war-camp-in-ukraine/ “Over 99% of the POWs want to be exchanged to Russia. Those who do not want to be exchanged will remain in the camp until the end of the war,” Petro Yatsenko, spokesperson of Ukraine’s Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War.

Government proposes https://kyivindependent.com/government-proposes-bill-that-could-ban-russia-linked-ukrainian-orthodox-church/ bill that could ban Russia-linked Ukrainian Orthodox church.

⚡️ SBU detains factory director for allegedly transferring $400,000 to Russian proxy forces. https://kyivindependent.com/sbu-detains-factory-director-over-funding-russian-proxy-forces/ The suspect is the director of a foundry in the occupied city of Makiivka in Donetsk Oblast.

⚡️Sumy mayor removed https://kyivindependent.com/sumy-mayor-removed-from-position-amidst-ongoing-corruption-investigation/ from position amidst ongoing corruption investigation.

Kyiv authorities began to turn on heating in social infrastructure facilities, such as hospitals, schools, and kindergartens, at the request of their management, Vitali Klitschko, the capital's mayor, said on Oct. 9. https://kyivindependent.com/mayor-heating-season-starts-in-kyiv/

The High Anti-Corruption Court of Ukraine closed the so-called "Rotterdam plus" case involving an allegedly unreasonable increase in energy prices between 2016-2019, the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office (SAPO) reported on Oct. 9
SAPO's Prosecutor did not agree with the court's decision and will take the case to the Court of Appeals. https://kyivindependent.com/anti-corruption-court-closes-case-of-electricity-prices-fraud/

⚡️SBU names https://kyivindependent.com/sbu-names-kherson-oblast-collaborator-suspected-of-torture-of-civilians/ Kherson Oblast collaborator suspected of torture of civilians

⚡️Earthquake tremors reported https://kyivindependent.com/earthquake-tremors-reported-in-western-ukraine-epicenter-in-slovakia/ in western Ukraine.

The dead villages: Hope and despair https://kyivindependent.com/the-dead-villages-hope-and-despair-side-by-side-in-the-liberated-south/ side-by-side in the liberated south.
The village of Neskuchne in Donetsk Oblast is marred by the devastation and landmines left behind by Russian soldiers when Ukrainian forces liberated the village.

I wonder if the lower losses yesterday and today are to do with bad weather? Just looked it up and on Sunday it was very rainy.

UNITED24 Media Telegram

In the Bakhmut direction, fighters of the third assault brigade captured the commander of the volunteer battalion "Alga" of the Russian army

Iran, according to the Pentagon, participated in the preparation of the Hamas attack on Israel: spokesman of the National Security Council of the White House, John Kirby.
According to him, American special services do not have direct evidence of Iran's involvement in the terrorist attack on October 7, but the support that the Tehran regime has provided to Hamas over the years should be taken into account.

The NATO Parliamentary Assembly called on the governments of member countries to increase aid to Ukraine and also expressed support for its accession to the Alliance. In a resolution published on the assembly’s website, approximately 240 parliamentarians from 31 NATO member states and partner countries adopted policy recommendations for the Alliance’s governments, urging them to increase both military and financial support to Ukraine, including military, intelligence, financial, training, and humanitarian assistance.
The Parliamentary Assembly called for expediting the delivery of advanced weapons to Ukraine, including long-range missiles and multi-role fighter jets.

In the Donetsk region, close to the city of Lyman, an Estonian volunteer from the International Legion, Tanel Kriggul (call sign "Stinger") died. The Estonian embassy has reported that this 29-year-old fighter was killed in a drone attack.

Poland has reportedly provided Germany with evidence implicating Russian involvement in the Nord Stream explosion, as reported by Zeit. Polish intelligence agencies have managed to identify some members of the crew of the yacht "Andromeda," which was in the vicinity of the incident. Based on their findings, it appears that at least some of the individuals on board the vessel have Russian citizenship. This crucial information has been shared with Germany.
Polish authorities believe that the yacht "Andromeda" played a significant role in the attack on both Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 on September 26 of the previous year.
On September 19, 2022, Polish border guards inspected the yacht's crew during a stop in the city of Kolobrzeg, Poland, and recorded their personal information. These individuals presented Bulgarian documents that were evidently forged. One of them, likely the yacht's captain, identified himself as "Mikhail Popov."
Polish intelligence claims to possess the true identities of these individuals and suspects that some of them may have ties to Russian military intelligence.
It's worth noting that Zeit points out that the German government and investigative circles view these reports with skepticism and consider them a possible diversionary tactic by Warsaw. The publication also suggests that Ukraine has been implicated in the gas pipeline explosions in Germany.

It's unclear what Zeit/German Govt is getting at. Are they suggesting Poland are deliberately muddying the water with information that they know is false, in order to protect the Ukrainians?

I think that's what is implied

If true, I'll look the other way especially given the gigantic meaty porkies the Russian government are curling out on the daily.

Would anyone be interested in and willing to do the roundup on Sunday and on Friday after that, the 20th? I'll be travelling most of those days.

Finnish government to hold news conference on suspected pipeline leak -media | Reuters

Lots of rumours flying around suggesting that this leak is no accident. Russia up to its old tricks......

Live: Ukraine Telegram

🇫🇮Finland has allocated €92 million to support countries affected by Russian aggression.
€62 million will go to the Recovery Support Program for Ukraine and Moldova. €12 million will be in the form of a grant and €50 million will be in the form of a loan.
In Ukraine, the funds will be allocated to healthcare, transportation, energy, agriculture, housing and social security.

The United States can support Ukraine and Israel at the same time, - Kirby, representative of the White House National Security Council.

⚽️UEFA has canceled the decision to allow youth national teams from Russia to participate in international competitions after a number of national football associations reacted negatively.

In the village of Hroza, six children were orphaned by Russian shelling, and five more became half-orphans.
For now, their relatives have taken care of the children, and official guardianship will be formalized after the funeral. Most of the children have grandparents, aunts and uncles.
There are no children who have no relatives at all.

Cherkasy, Ukraine.

Definitely looks like Russia up to tricks, though probably can't get proven. Luckily doesn't seem to have too big an impact.

Really good, objective info here on Israel/Gaza events. Though obviously not what the thread is for but it’s very informative.

Latest Ukrainecast is about what the Israel-Gaza conflict means for Ukraine

They discussed it in quite a bit of detail the other day on Ukraine the Latest too, Francis being his usual bleak self...

I'll do it Ducks if you tell me where to get the info.

Thanks so much @DesdamonasHandkerchief !

The British Int comes from here https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ

The ISW stuff from here https://www.understandingwar.org/user/3100/track, you just choose the right day.

The Kyiv Indep, Ukraine Now and Live: Ukraine points come from Telegram

https://t.me/KyivIndependent_official

https://t.me/United24media

https://t.me/liveukraine_media

I go through each channel and pick out the military, political, economic, sometimes human-interest stories and then paste 'em up here (and on Twitter but sheesh, that place is nose-diving in quality, not sure it's worth it any more).

With the Kyiv Independent, it turns out you have to copy each separate link otherwise they won't work. Or just leave 'em out! :)

Again, thanks!

I'll do my best. It won't be as comprehensive as your round ups I'm sure - doing all that every day is a part time job!
You're right about Twitter I wish Musk would bow out and let someone competent and sane take over.

sorta is a small part time job yeah :D

The level of disinformation (lies) swilling around there is deeply worrying now.

Plus the way that Musk has arranged to remove the Likes from Pekka Kallioniemi's excellent post on Vatnik Soup about him shows it all really. "Free speech" ... right. M'partner checked out the time stamps of the mass Like removals and some of them are automated, but some of them are manually triggered too. Pekka also claims that some of his posts are being removed.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-10-2023

Key Takeaways:

• Russian forces launched localized offensive operations in the Avdiivka area of Donetsk Oblast and southwest of Orikhiv in western Zaporizhia Oblast on October 9, which are likely intended to fix Ukrainian forces away from the Robotyne area.
• The Ukrainian General Staff confirmed up to three Russian battalions conducted an attack in the Avdiivka direction, and ISW has observed footage of fighting in the area, but ISW has not observed any confirmation of these claimed Russian advances as of this writing.
• Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and made confirmed advances in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area.
• Russian military leadership may have once again replaced the commander of the 58th Combined Arms Army (CAA), suggesting ongoing pervasive Russian command and control issues in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced plans to open a new corridor through Moldova and Romania for the export of Ukrainian grain.
• Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, in western Donetsk Oblast, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and advanced in some areas on October 10.
• The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported that Luhansk Oblast occupation authorities are cracking down against Ukrainian underground communication networks.