From the article:
Neither of these decisions was an accident and neither should be forgiven. Each was predictable and predicted. The first minister has spent years arguing her critics’ views are “not valid” only to have her own position refuted by reality. This was not an aberration. This was the policy working as it was designed to. Ministers are embarrassed because they were found out, not because they have belatedly come to their senses.
It is crucial to understand that the prison service has effectively operated on a self-ID basis for years. In this respect, the government’s gender recognition reforms largely bring the law into line with current practice. To see the future, then, you need only look at the prison service now.