Christine Burns wants people to do the maths....

[Thingybob]

But she can't do the maths!

Her rough figures are:

5 million children between 11-16
2500 referred to GIDS
So roughly 1 in 2000

That figure from GIDS is per year Christine and as you are using a 6 year age span it needs to be multiplied by 6

So roughly 1 in 333

For additional information:

There is not a 50/50 split between males and females
Some 'trans' children are not referred to GIDS
Many get a referral after 17 so are referred to adult services

Taking those factors into consideration then it's easy for your estimate of 1 in 2000 to reduce to less than 1 in 100 for girls

I'm not on twitter (I only read) so can't point this out to her but find it disgusting that someone with so much power has so little understanding.

twitter.com/christineburns/status/1330849875316109312

Actually I've just realised I can't do the maths either as this point was irrelevant as it would then increase the 5 million cohort.

Many get a referral after 17 so are referred to adult services

But I'm not writing or influencing policy so my mistakes don't matter, Christines do.

It's not really possible to work it out based on the numbers given. The referral figure is from one year - someone in the cohort could have been referred in the previous year, or be referred in the year after.

Probably better to compare the increase in referrals over time vs. the increase in the cohort size over time, but I'm sure someone more knowledgable than me can tell us!

Curious as to whether this person is aware of the points you make above but ignoring them - or not...

So 2,500 children referred to GIDs isn't an epidemic but 0 trans people murdered in the UK in the last two years is an epidemic of violence according to TDOR.

It's great when you can play fast and loose with words and numbers as suits.

Epidemics are in the eye of the beholder ....?

Both definitions of words and numbers representing concrete facts get Humpty-Dumptied by the ideology.

So 2,500 children referred to GIDs isn't an epidemic but 0 trans people murdered in the UK in the last two years is an epidemic of violence according to TDOR.

Yes, another one is MTF trans people in women's prisons (a small number) and MTF trans people murdered (an even smaller number). Guess which number is dismissed as too small to mean anything?

Actually given that there is no detransition data, it would be interesting to know separately the incidence and prevalence rates of ROGD & other gender dysphorias that are referred to GIDS.

Can that be estimated via the age and sex?

Ie, natal females referred over the age of 12 will most likely be ROGD.

Male and female children referred under the age of 12 are likely to be the classic ‘trans child’ of whom approx 80% desist after puberty using the ‘watch and wait’ model.

Post puberty males are most likely to be an early manifestation of the unpopular acronym.

Types of gender dysphoria described by Doctors Blanchard and Bailey here:

4thwavenow.com/2017/12/07/gender-dysphoria-is-not-one-thing/