Autumn 2023

[GloriaSmud]

As we're a few weeks away from the start of meteorological autumn (1st September), some early thoughts here.

Tipping down this morning. It's much colder I'm going to move the plants off the hearth today so we can light a fire at if needed.

I'm keeping a pretty close eye on Wednesday now. GFS shows a rapidly deepening low pressure system crossing Wales and England. This, if it were to occur would bring damaging winds and a lot of rain.

At the moment, it's a long way out and the models are likely to chop and change a lot between now and then. But it's something to be aware of.

That's bad. The leaves aren't even turning here yet. Will be next years logs coming down

@OhYouBadBadKitten our local weather watcher has just posted on FB a map of possible 100mph winds - 2 weeks away so hopefully will ease a little. What are your thoughts on this ? Meanwhile, it’s reminded me to get my trees checked!

Taylorscat ~ there's a low pressure system showing up at the moment, that moves across the very far north of Scotland in 2 weeks time, so that might be the one your weather watcher is talking about. It's waaaay into the future though when it comes to weather forecasting so as you say, hopefully it'll ease (or go off in a completely different direction!)

Wednesday looks awful for the midlands and south of the country ~ was wondering whether there might be some weather warnings along for that day. Proper Autumn weather.

Galway and neighbours to be hammered on Wednesday, n coast of England Wales and Scotland to follow unless things change

DH is sitting here telling me about Carlow Weather's views on Wednesday's system - UK met already has red warnings, Met Eireann doesn't show Wednesday until tomorrow.

I knew I would see a lot of rain in Brussels on Thursday (YR saying almost 10mm) but it looked ok to get there from Dublin on Wednesday evening...but DH reckons I won't be going anywhere.

Not too bad here in Cornwall today so far. Bit of rain and some blustery bits. Lovely 😍

Damp, drizzly and dull here (Leicester) today.

Rain warning (for today) over parts of Scotland and wind warnings for Wednesday and Thursday. Thought the strong winds were a bit further south yesterday but it's moved north now but looking at the details, even the metoffice aren't sure of its exact track either!

Damp and drizzly here too. Yesterday's forecast was for a good drying day, so it's disappointing.

Different models show different paths and scenarios for Wednesday deep low @GloriaSmud The track and intensity are very uncertain.

As we get closer to Wednesday, I'd expect the area under warning to be refined. It's worth noting that the risk matrix suggest that at the moment, probability of disruption is low, but that the storm has the potential to become a named storm and for amber warnings to be issued.

I think we've had enough rain by now. Can someone have a word upstairs please? The lawn is very boglike and even the wildlife have wtf faces when they go on it.

Bit windy in Edinburgh tonight, with 45mph gusts. Which is higher than is currently forecast for Wed/Thurs.

Super sunny here in Cornwall today! Glorious. Shame I'll be looked away in an office

Storm Agnes has been named. I've started a storm specific thread here. https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/weather/4905237-storm-agnes-first-named-storm-of-the-season

The Met Office Contingency planners outlook has been released. Remember this is aimed at local authorities and other organisations who need a steer of what the likelihoods are of different weather scenarios over the coming months. It isn't a forecast - its a probability indicator.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/3moutlook_ond_v1.pdf

To summarise, they say it is more likely to be a mild three months compared to average, slightly more likely to be a wetter three months than average and an average level of storminess.

The outlook for october is it to be lost likely warm and calm. The warm part certainly bears out in the models for the early part of October, when some quite remarkable warmth is once again showing as a potential.

Actually my summary for their document isnt quite accurate for October. Most likely to be warm, yes, but less likely to be windy than usual, rather than calm. Important difference!

Oh I'm so gutted. I was so hoping for a cold Autumn and Winter for once.

Looks like I won't be lighting the fire or putting the heating on for a while yet. We're promised a mini heat wave next week

I've been hesitating about posting this as the models have been very conflicting, with entirely different solutions being presented. It's starting to look more likely now that next weekend will see temperatures in the mid 20s across much of England with some favoured eastern spots seeing perhaps 26 or 27c. This is some 10c above the average maximum temperature for October.

This hot air is coming from the south, where parts of northern and central France may see temperatures in the high 20s or perhaps low 30s.

Devon live are simultaneously running articles on warm temperatures this month and months of snow. I suppose one of them stands a chance of being right.

Netweather have done a monthly forecast ~ starting off warm and dry, becoming unsettled seems to be the theme.

September was record breakingly warm, with the Central England Temperature 3.4c above average.

Every single month so far this year has been warmer than average.

Any idea when it’s likely to cool down, OYBBK? I desperately want some proper autumn weather.

It is a very prolonged mild autumn. Haven’t had to put the heating on yet (and I cave early). Good for the heating bills I guess. And after such a disappointing summer.