Tornado watch issued

[OhYoubadbadkitten]

TORROhave issued a tornado watch and a convective discussion today for the interaction of a cold front with a large upper trough (creating an unstable and dynamic atmosphere) There may possibly be some tornadoes generated, also largish hail and cloud-ground lightning. Keep an eye on local weather conditions before heading off for out door activities. The cold front is showing up nicely on the met office radar

bump!

Ooh. Huh. I'm going to walk the dog in a minute. Might attach my wrist weights to his legs.

My Internet is playing up , where is the warning for ?

storms are possible pretty much anywhere! possibility of tornadoes is probably in a swathe covering the SW/Wales up through the Wash, Lincolnshire E. Yorkshire.

ESTOFEX (the european storm forecast experiment) have issued a level 1 storm forecast for the possibly of tornadoes and severe windgusts too. They run their level 1 area into the SE, having moved it slightly south of the TORRO forecast.

Oh you lucky sods but hope they do no damage

If you see one and it isn't moving left or right, run because it's coming straight forward.

well, theres certainly a good rainfall rate associated with this front!

To my very amateur eyes the radar is beginning to look interesting around the home counties with bowing beginning to take place.

A good line of lightning strikes can be seen here!

south wales-the sky has gone black and heavy thunder,some lightning.
dh is out delivering his mail so i hope theres no tornados coming.

nice Gloria :)
wfrances, even if we were guaranteed to have a widespread outbreak (which is rather unlikely!) your dh would be incredibly unlucky!
I cant remember the percentage accuracy of TORROs forecasts. It is quite reasonable. I'll have to try and dig the paper out.

Thunder here, very dark and lots of rain
Mind you, it is Lancashire!

ok found a TORRO paper from the international journal of meteorology Aug 2010 which says that the previous year tornado watches gave rise to one or more tornadoes in 19% of the watches and 41% occurred during a convective discussion, which is actually not a bad hit rate as they are very hard to forecast. There are lots of discussions as to when tornado watches should be issued - with the bias towards issuing tornado watches when significant tornadoes may occur and trying to envelope weak, short lived tornadoes into convective discussions, so that tornado watches are not overly issued and mean that people should perhaps pay attention when they are issued. There is still work to be done as always though :) in that year 46% were not forecast.

Severe downfall here, just flooded the carpark.

There's quite a few tornadoes each year in the uk, have heard of water spouts off the coast of wales too.

another good place for waterspouts is off the south coast around the isle of Wight :)

Anyway reports of damage possibly caused by a tornado (will need to be investigated) at around 11:30am in Lymington today. Any mners from that area???