OK, time for the maths. There are a few different permutations that would give us that dance off, but to my mind the only plausible one is that the public vote went:
Louis
Lisa
Dani
Kimberley
Denise
Realistically, Denise is screwed in the final, and she knows it. If the final goes on straight viewer votes (not totally confirmed I think) then Louis is nailed on for the win. It's possible that Dani only got more votes than Kimberley because K's fans thought she was safe, and that more people will vote Kimberley in a straight fight, but frankly I doubt it - K's dances were so crowd-pleasing, and D's not so, D danced first with K last, and the X factor wasn't on, releasing a more Kimberley-friendly demographic to watch and vote live. I reckon Dani will get more votes in the final.
I'm happy with a Louis win - I adore Flavia, and think she'll unleash a killer Argentine Tango and the showiest showdance ever.