Update: went and swatched lots of these lipsticks at lunchtime today and bought Nars Cruella velvet matte lip pencil, because it's exactly the slightly plummy red that I was looking for. And the texture is amazing.
Nars Terre de Feu is also gorgeous but pretty much the same as Mac Dark Side, which I already have (arguably these are both closer to the picture than Cruella, but I wanted something slightly redder.) Also realised Mac Diva is really close to the picture too, but it turns fuchsia on me after a few minutes 
Also bought Collection Prohibition, which is exactly the same colour as KM Rimmel 107, but glossy rather than matte. Lovely.