Any GCSE History teachers around - GCSE predicted results

[SmatteringOfPatois]

2013 results were 81%
predicted 2014 were 70% - have yet to establish final %

What would be the reasons behind an 11% predicted drop?

Differing ability of the cohort?

coursework marking

Head of History here. I agree that it will be down to a different cohort of slightly less able pupils. Our targets fluctuate according to the pupils who choose to study History. Current yr 11 are targetted 90%, Year 10 72%.

thanks for the reply oddsock, yes, that's a good reason.

On reflection perhaps my question should be, would the powers that be at a secondary be alarmed at an 11% predicted drop?

thanks you for replies, very interesting.

How many are in the class?

If there are 9 kids taking it, that's 1 pupil. If there's one class of 27, it's 3 pupils. It would be completely normal for a class of 27 to one year have 3 more academically able kids in it than another year.

The powers that be should maybe be alarmed that their more able pupils are avoiding a traditional academic subject which is useful later on for a variety of degrees.

I say this as someone who made a decision aged 14 which meant I couldn't apply to Cambridge. It wasn't the end of the world but it did close a door which really should still have been open.

I think that the level of alarm for the powers that be all depends upon the pupils in the cohort. If the predicted 11% drop is because there are some pupils who are predicted to underachieve then maybe but as already said it may just be 1 or 2 pupils who could have other issues/be underperforming everywhere. If all pupils are predicted to perform at their target level then they will not be concerned at all. Worth mentioning that a 70odd% (can't remember the actual figure as on phone) is a really good pass rate. Nationally the average for History is around 65%.