so house prices are set to fall further......

[saramoon]

Ok so when would you buy a house if you were a 1st time buyer? Have posted on here before about buying cos we have never done it before. Want to buy in the next year - this is provided DH keeps his job, we will know in the next month - and have been accepted onto a key worker scheme. Anyway, would it be wise to start looking and making offers in the spring or wait?
Also if a house is on the market for £179,000 (2 bed in our area, our area being apparently v desirable) would an offer of £150,000ish ( all we have to offer) be taking the piss?

Don't think an offer way around that amount would be taking the piss at all. Prices are falling. The owner can either take the offer or stay put - their choice. If they need to sell, the next place they buy will go under the advertised price as well. OR they will have bought it for less. Unless they are just plain unlucky and bought it last year - and that's their bad luck, no reason you should feel responsible.

(I'm speaking as a homeowner btw, if I needed to sell I'd take an offer. Fingers crossed we will be staying put!)

no, imo it wouldn't. The market is flat and is sert to get worse.

The worst the vendor can do is say no.

I have no idea when the best time to buy would be, tbh. If I could predict things like that I'd be a very rich woman indeed !

The waiting game is a gamble, if you wait too long you miss the boat but if you buy early then you could see prices fall further and feel like you could have got a better deal.

(I'm also a homeowner - bought and sold 4 houses)

I will buy in late 2010/2011 more likely.

You will not miss the boat by waiting. The top of bubbles are always spikey (prices/sentiment suddenly change) and bottoms are always loooooong and flat. An investment saying in Buy low, sell early.

We have seen the biggest house price boom, so we will now see the biggest bust. I can't say when prices will bottom EXACTLY, but they certainly will not be going up for years. An illiquid asset like a house means that market turns are very slow to happen, but when they do happen they keep going (like an oil tanker).

I will buy when nobody is talking about house prices and when I say I'm thinking of buying, people say that i am a fool and houses will never rise again.

You are in a great poistion. Why rush? By renting/living with parents for 1-2 years more than planned, you will save yourself a LIFETIME of more debt and misery. Be patient and if you can't be patient and do put in offers then if you are not embarrassed by the offer it is too high.

I personally am looking to buy as a FTB right now. But I'm only buying if I can get 20-15% off what I feel the house is worth (not necessarily the asking price IYSWIM?)

I have put an offer in 40k below the asking price which was rejected - I was scared putting in the offer but like others say the vendor can only say no.

I personally think price will stabilise, in most areas within the next 8-11 months. There is an election in 2010 don't forget. I also reckon the market will drop by up to 15% this year depending on area. Price rises are a long way off yet, I'd say at least 2 years. But if you're buying a house you hope to be in for a good few years (ie> more than 6) it should all sort itself out.

But I'm no expert, I've just read ALOT and parents offer advice etc. Rightmove and halifax do monthly predictions which are good to read.

I would be more worried about your mortgage rate and your ability to repay TBH as these are things you can control. You wont know for sure when the best time to buy is so minimise risks by ensuring job security, a low interest rate and a good LTV.

That offer wouldn't be cheeky at all.
I would reconsider using a key worker scheme. Wait a year and you might be able to buy a place yourself.

I am using the key worker scheme - someone in my dept has gone through the same scheme and recommended it - cos without it we can only borrow £108,000. We earn between us about £35,000 a year. We have no deposit either. So i agree with the advice about job security and interest rate. BTW what is LTV? My younger brother bought last year and now says he wished he was still renting.
Thanks for advice, i guess the answer is to just keep an eye on the market.

LTV is loan to value.

...I am not part of a key worker scheme, but have (London based teacher) friends who are, and (south west based) colleagues who avoid such schemes if possible.

My London chums regret it a great deal. It certainly helped them buy a flat in London a little more quickly than they might otherwise have done, and were they content to stay there forever there would not be a difficulty.

However they now wish to move, and found (even pre-bust) that having the key worker loan greatly diminishes their ability to get a mortgage that they think is easily within their capacity to pay.

..perhaps, if you wait, it may prove possible to buy without the keyworker scheme? I think the time to buy, and I do want to move, will be when the volume of transactions starts to become more brisk. Then, it will be wise to move quickly...

Just my thoughts. I don't claim particular expertise....

LTV is Loan To Value ratio

Say, a 100% mortgage would be BAD from an LTV point of view. Whereas a large deposit (large in proportion to the value of your home) would give you a good LTV as you would have a small mortgage (relative to the value of the house)

It's up to the individual of course but key worker schemes exist because property prices have been so ridiculously high. I'm of the opinion (old fashioned I know) that saving up a deposit and taking out a 3 times income mortgage is still the best way to go. I don't know where you live but you could well find that a property comes within your means within the next few years.

Yes, I do agree with you nkf. I do NOT want a huge mortgage and neither of us are going to earn masses and that is fine. We are currently renting a lovely (though a little damp and cold) house in Cheltenham and we love the area. We are paying fairly low rent too which is good. IAnd we are in a good catchment area for schools. All good. Maybe it would be better to stay put for a while.

I'd wait the longer you do the lower your mortgage will be one way or the other either low price or bigger deposit and ideally both.

IMO the best time to buy may be late 2009/ early 2010. Prices may not be at rock bottem but I think interest rates are going to shoot up in 2010 onwards. The best mortgage deals will be before 2010. You may be able to get a cheaper house if you wait till 2011 BUT you'll be paying alot more every month in interest.. That's my guess and what I'm going to do anyway I already own a small house (with mortgage) but desperate to trade up. I think I will put it on the market end of this year or next Spring..

It no longer matters so much about interest rates. I would rather borrow £100k at 10% than 200k at 4%. Always better.

Exactly sunshine, the rates over the longer term will average out, the capital stays the same.
Oh for a crystal ball as to where the bottom is.

depends on the house. if its a one of a kind, buy it now, but if its pretty standard, lots similar in the area, then wait it out

House is nothing particularly special - although it does have off road parking and side access to back of the house. It is just that not many houses are cheap enough for us around here and this one may be within our price range.
Think we will wait for a while and see how things are in the summer/autumn.

A house should be something special, it's the biggest purchase you will ever make, jee you should be excited about how wonderful it is, hold on huni !!!