Will the Pound crash or not?

[lamii]

At the moment the pound is getting better. It might be linked to tourism in August...Do you think the predictions about the £ crashing might be right?

It's uncertainty and instability that causes currency collapse. We're over the worst of it so long as the Tories don't create another disaster.

it will crash again at some stage, that's the nature of economics. Decades of government of both kinds wrecking our industries, lining pockets etc etc mean we are not entirely stable. What country is?

BTW it is still worth much more against the Euro than in about 2008-2009. MN has selective memory.

Banks speculate about a crash starting beg of 2017 til "the brexit". Do you think it might not happen?

If there's another crash it will probably be another global crash will will effect € and $ too.

*which will

I think it is unlikely, it is on the rise again. I personally think our problems are some of the least problematic when you look at the rest of europe.

I think it may climb slowly against the dollar while nothing much is happening re: Brexit but will drop significantly when the first difficulties hove into view (and those difficulties are inevitable, imo). It's harder to say what will happen against the euro because there are various problems ahead within the eurozone (possibility of the election of a far right president in Austria next month; possibility of Italian PM resigning and eurosceptic party being the kingmaker also in October; general elections next year for Germany and France etc etc).

I don't think it's getting better. IMO it is bumping along the bottom, having fallen dramatically as a result of Brexit.

It is between about 14% and 18% down over twelve months, fluctuating day to day, against both the Euro and the dollar. If there is a post-Brexit trend line, I think it is going down, but who knows? It was widely expected to tumble to $1.30 on a "leave" vote, which it did.

(you may have to click on 1-yearview)
markets.ft.com/data/currencies/tearsheet/summary?s=gbpeur

markets.ft.com/data/currencies/tearsheet/summary?s=gbpusd

(btw if anyone says you can "talk the country down" by mentioning the problems, I suggest you link hands and dance round in circles, chanting "everything's fine" and see if you can make it get better)

Many European economies have far deeper structural problems than the UK. Would never bet on on the stupidity of the markets, but the risk in countries like Italy and France is not negligible, although it is being papered over by membership of core EU?euro status. The accession countries on the eastern rim of Europe seem fairly Euro-sceptic economically.

It depends what the rest of the world thinks of our economy.
Currently with the lower £ overseas investors are buying things as they
are cheaper-in fact it could be that £ was too high before?
The main thing is to watch is £ versus the US dollar as this is the
currency for eg buying raw materials and many big things

It might fall further but that's not always a bad thing. What everybody will focus on is growth. If it's worse in early 2017 compared to 2016 then that could cause a freefall in the markets. Thankfully markets are short termist so an actual decision about Brexit will push them back up, but there'll be a lot of yo yo ing which is bad for jobs.

As expected, it will be a problem if UK loses unfettered access to the EU's internal market.

The Japanese Foreign Ministry reminded Mrs May last week that this could result in firms transferring from UK to other countries which are inside the EU, but we knew that already.

Until the answer is known, inward investment into the UK will be more cautious than usual.

However, with the pound having dropped substantially, there are bargains for the vultures.

I don't wish the economy to collapse in England, of course not, but I am watching closely fluctuations as I am in Sweden now and I hope to come back to London. I would then sell our flat to buy something in London. The Swedish kronour is low compared to the Pound.