What do you think the trajectory is for FTB prices in London?

[fourwalls]

Looking at First Time buyer Property in South London: 1 & 2 bedders, Zones 3/4, current prices of £160-£180K, in SW, South and SE London.

Where do you think prices will go on these kind of properties for next year's Spring buying season? Or indeed, over the Autumn/Winter?

Getting lots of reductions coming through on Rightmove alerts but nothing huge. Good flats still seem to be going to under offer/sold really fast.

Some(not many) do re-appear back on market a few weeks later though.

Reductions seem to be almost exclusively on the hard to sell properties.

Not too much new stock appearing and market seems weighed down with stuff which is either hard to shift because of inherent flaws or because it's overpriced to start with.

Buy now or buy later? Or don't buy at all?

I wouldn't buy a FTB type property at all in the current market. If prices fall ( and I would bet they will) you could end up stuck in a flat. I have lots of friends who bought 1 and 2 bedders in London and are now in NE and can't step up. They are at the stage of wanting/having children, so it's a nightmare.

We're planning on skipping the flat/starter home stage completely and buying a 3 bedder. It means commuting in a fair distance of course, but our logic is we need to buy something we don't object (too much!) to getting stuck in.

It's affordable to do if you pick your area carefully. We really didn't want to leave London, but it was the only sensible option, we felt.

Cheers Fruit - I know what you mean about the whole FTB flat thing. We've been weighing flats up against tiny houses in the worst streets i the areas we're interested in. Very similar prices but it's a trade-off which might make day-to-day living miserable.

Seems really hard to call London prices at the moment in our end of the market. Agents seems to be persistently high pricing then reducing.

And yet some stuff (the good stuff!) still seems to sell at the higher prices so it's not indicative of a market collapse/crash or anything even remotely dramatic like that.

More of a slow phttttt... a slowly deflating balloon

I think prices won't fall, because unemployment isn't a problem. We have had no real wage inflation recently and that is set to change. This means people will have more money, although I know gas and electicity bills are set to rise, in their pockets.

Can you afford NOT to buy? When you're renting, you are just paying someone else's mortgage. And if prices don't rise, it's neutral, because your next house won't have risen either.

I wouldn't gamble on London houses or flats going down. We bought our first flat in 2007 ( 2 bed, zone 2) at what we thought was the top of the market. We sold 5 years (and 2 kids) later for £100k profit. If you can, buy a Victorian property as these hold value better and try and buy 2 beds rather than one so you can stay longer if you need to. We found decent properties were going very quickly, ours sold in 2 weeks to the first viewer..
London is a (very pricey) law unto itself.

I agree Frieda, I don't think we can afford NOT to buy. Rents are crazy and money in the bank is making next to nothing - it makes sense to buy rather than rent.

Stokey - why are people mad for Victorian property? Even conversion flats?

I've lived in loads with constant maintenance and no parking, absolutely dire sound proofing and the whole leasehold/share of freehold negotiations situation with two reasonable neighbours and the one compulsory lunatic who won't talk to anyone.

We can see Victorian commands better prices but I really like 1970s onwards blocks with large rooms, garages, special bin areas, decent sound proofing, large double glazed windows and proper management arrangements.

Why does nobody else want this?

From an investment perspective Victorian wins outright but I dread the though of living in another builder's bodge of a conversion with paper walls and cardboard floors.

How long are you planning to stay in the property?

The longest we've ever stayed in one place is 5 years with an average of about 2-3 years so unless it's exceptional, I would say 3 years to be safe.

Can you foresee a time when you will be settling somewhere for more than 3 years? Otherwise fees etc will be a big chunk of your costs.

Well, we go into every new place with the view that, if all goes well, we'll not need to move again... then life gets in the way!

Whether it's a new job or getting fed up with the commute or discovering the neighbours are more annoying than us ...

For quite a few years now we've roved around London and the SE always managing to cover our costs when we move on. It's less about wanting to be on 'the ladder' and make property gains, more about just moving as a result of changes around us.

So, if we find the right place: 2 beds, top floor, nice area 20 mins walk or so to a station (probably zone 4 or less) then we could be there for ever.

Recouping the fees/or not... wouldn't necesarily put us off buying or make us stay in a place we were fed up with.

We kind of factor them in as a 'cost of living' and 'hope' to get them back when we leave. So far that's worked out... but you never know when it'll stop.

So have you bought before now, sorry, thought you were FTBs?

Yes - we buy FTB properties because we don't have kids to worry about and no desire to own larger properties.

We buy FTB properties i.e. conforming to that size, type and price bracket but we are not first time buyers

What are you thoughts on the market for these properties in London?

Re Victorian properties, you're right about draughts, noise etc but think people like period features, fireplaces, cornices floorboards . I am a bit of a sucker for old places myself, just the character, but wrangles with our freeholder on last property did somewhat put me off. Can't really say why, they just hold their value better. Good luck.

Thanks Stokey