Help - Potential school closure

[Schoolhelp23]

Does anyone have any experience of fighting against a potential school closure, due to low intake and financial defecit? Consultation looks likely to go ahead, with recommended options being either reduction of PAN or closure.

My recommendation is to let it go. Two have closed in our borough over the last two years, and the birth rate is declining, which means we simply have too many primary school places. The schools only work with nearly full classes. Schools are legally required to present a balanced budget and, if not, to have a recovery plan to bring it back into balance within three years. Schools are largely funded per child, so if you don't have the kids, they'll limp along at best. If you keep it open, unless there is a massive housing estate being built that the council forgot to factor into their plans, or maybe a phenomenal Ofsted report that makes everyone want to send their kids there, it will, at best, come up for closure again in a couple of years. For those couple of years, everything will be cut to balance the budget, senior teachers who leave will be replaced by the cheapest they can find or not replaced at all and classes may well be mixed year groups. I've been governor of a couple of schools, and one I was vice-chair at until 4 years ago, is very likely to be the next to go. If it closes the deficit, it comes out of LEA funds, which would otherwise be split over the other local primaries, so they are also not so tight financially, and then the amount of discretionary funds the LEA has for them is reduced further to pay off the debts of an unsustainable school. The best thing may well be to have a positive closure. When one of the schools closed the neighbouring school offered to take their year five as a group to make an extra year six so that the children weren't split for their final year, things like that and a good closure are, in my opinion, a much better course of action, as sad as it may feel to be losing your kids' school. I think it is highly unlikely you will save it. If you do, it will only be a couple of years, and it will feel like there is a death sentence hanging over it, and you'll damage other local primaries by keeping it open when it's unviable. A few locally have also cut PANs - but in reality, some are trying to heat and maintain a full building on half kids, I doubt that is sustainable long term either. I'd like the council to get ahead of this and close some quickly rather than have all schools try to keep going until there is no other option, whilst they've all been underfunded for a number of years in the interim - but the council want to piss off the least possible number of people so only have this consultation when there is no chance it can stay open. Focus on a good ending and a good transition.

A primary closed near us but it was a very small one with falling numbers and it just wasn’t viable financially.
they did a lot of marketing to try to boost numbers but sadly the closure still went ahead and people living nearby were very upset but I feel it was a done deal before the consultation.

@ACynicalDad Paragraphs please!

However you are correct. I’d also say LAs should be monitoring birth rates and housing policy. They do know what the school population will probably be quite a long way into the future and should draw up plans to rationalise school places.

The schools that close are never religious schools though. They just stay open with tiny numbers. It’s always the LA ones that bite the dust.

It’s absolutely imperative that there’s an orderly closure and you will find many parents jump ship early. Being stuck in a school with fast decreasing numbers and no money isn’t what most parents want.

90 primary schools have closed or merged in London since 2019 apparently due to falling numbers

Yes, don't know if the OP is London-based, but this article is interesting https://www.ft.com/content/5b019594-5b20-479a-8549-7b564127eb3f?syn-25a6b1a6=1

Thanks all. Gutted. This is a catholic primary in Central London (Camden council but school is near Covent Garden). Don't know whether to fight keep school open somehow (local councillors are already starting a campaign) or move my child before it happens. Actually 4 are at risk of closure within Camden - 3 primaries and 1 secondary, all Christian schools.

I did some analysis of our London borough with our headteacher, and Anglican primaries were in particular trouble; Catholic primaries were more mixed but they either thrived or were in a bad place, few in the middle on pupil numbers.

The reality is that you aren't the only one thinking of moving your child, and some will and next years reception parents will probably not risk it which combined will kill it anyway. As there are three you could see if a merger is viable and if that happens before everyone leaves them it may have some hope, if you drag it out there may not be enough left to merge into a viable school.

Another thing is use of buildings, population could change again, not in 5 years but maybe in 20, and the free schools really struggled to find large sites, finding a temporary use for them is part of a good closure.

Already been informed amalmagation not possible due to distance of next Catholic school within the borough. The only recommended options are reduce PAN to 15 (not sure how this would help the deficit?!) or closure.

(*amalgamation!)

A PAN of 15 will mean composite classes I'd think, so they will save on teacher salaries.

Have a look at the recent thread about the proposed closure of Kew Riverside and see if you can find any helpful info there.

Here it is.

https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/petitions_noticeboard/5588078-richmond-council-proposing-to-close-an-exceptional-close-knit-primary-school?page=2&reply=155317715

They've already done that - a few year groups are already merged (including Y5/Y6 as of this year, which worried me). Does it sound like a losing battle?

Do they currently have mixed year groups? As 15 would mean rec and y1 etc.

One near us closed and our school took some.
one issue is then that our school being larger then has a lot if kids from further away etc and so they then get into/choose different secondary schools.

It is the only point in carrying on if you have a single child in Y5 who may get to complete school before it's a complete disaster, but to get to this point, a lot of work has gone in, and I'm sure it's a foregone conclusion.

@Schoolhelp23 I’m in a shire county and CofE and RC have never closed schools. However we don’t have loads of RC. I’d say it will go and a PAN of 15 will under utilise buildings so who is paying for that? A smaller pan saves salaries so there’s upheaval. Have other schools got spaces? Does Campden have any policy for managing school places given falling rolls? I don’t think the council can force closures but funding has to be used for best value.

I think Camden would be able to secure a place for all pupils within a Camden school. Added layer of complexity is I'm actually Lambeth (right on border of Lambeth, Southwark and Westminster), so any other Camden school won't work for us distance wise. Having to look at/send applications to schools closer to home but feel like a bit of a traitor! Awful.

There are 4 Camden schools which are facing consultations for potential closure this month, and all 4 of them are Catholic or CofE. They have already closed 2 church primary schools since 2019. So it does seem that Church schools seem more likely to close than community schools in that borough. I wonder if that's related to local choices and demographics (more diverse population, families of other religions who would never consider a church school even if it's academically very good, or liberals who oppose religious education on other grounds)?

Whatever the reason, it looks like you'll be able to submit your views by writing ahead of the Cabinet meeting, but I wouldn't be too optimistic and I'd be looking around alternative schools as you could have to take up a place at short notice. School rolls are dropping across all inner London boroughs and there will be places available.

Having seen what happens when a school closes, I would be looking at getting my children out now. I remember seeing a member of the board of governors of the closing school literally running into my children’s school to get his kids’ names down, BEFORE the announcement of closure later that day.

Once the mention of closure is floated, it’s normally only a matter of time, so you need to make decisions that are right for your children.

Have you actually just said “paragraphs please”?! Really condescending. Someone has taken the time to provide their advice.

Thank you, but it’s not unreasonable 🤣

LA also know how many children are under school age and what effect that has. So won’t close for a few years of low numbers but will if it’s a trend. I worked in a secondary with poor numbers but they knew in 4 years rhe numbers would jump up again.

@ACynicalDad Sorry! I did read your advice and agree with it but I did find it hard to read. Not sure there’s an easy way of saying that! I just used two words and it wasn’t meant to be rude.

Camden have given pupil projections and there’s clearly a big drop off. I can see from the OP’s situation, it’s difficult in terms of alternatives. However money must be spent to give value and sadly, half empty schools is a big financial drain.

Given where you say your location is, have you thought about St George’s Cathedral School? Near the Lambeth / Southwark / river join, and a friend’s kid is loving it. Almost all Southwark schools have places free if you want to move.

Personally I would put my efforts into finding a new school that's a good fit for your DC, closeby and convenient etc. I'd also be looking into whether you now need to sell up and move closer to your new school and potentially avoid depreciation if your home is currently within the catchment of a school that will no longer be there. Obviously only relevant if you own your home. If you rent, it's also an opportunity to look to moving closer to a new school. Either way your energy is best spent on looking forward rather than fighting something which is on the cards.

Maybe look on Camden Journal post on Facebook and see comments- there us someone there commenting on fighting the previous closure if a Camden primary school. They think the decision was made pre consultation. Tbf numbers being so low means schools can't get needed funding so doesn't make sense for them to stay open. The area is so expensive these days that people are moving out when they have families (aside from us die hards!) . I jist went to visit one of the schools for my son starting reception. Very sad.