How do new SATs map on to GCSE prediction?

[KOKOagainandagain]

The last levels that DS2 received were 4b(r), 4c(w) and 4c(m) at the end of year 4. At the average rate of progress teachers were confident that he would be level 5/6 at the end of KS2. At GCSE the prediction was A*/A etc.

He is now at the end of year 5. I had some concerns about his writing but staff dismissed them on the basis that my expectations were too high wrt english as the best he could hope for at GCSE was a C grade, with a lot of effort and support. On the other hand he should get A*/A for maths and science.

This is a total contradiction of what I was told was the case last year and would not be the prediction suggested by the assessment. The staff just say that the assessment system has changed as if this explains why there should be a different GCSE prediction

But, this reduction of expectation at GCSE does not appear to be due the new style of assessment - year 5 sat the new SATs papers and DS2 is well suited to the format of SPAG where he displays knowledge but doesn't use it (ASD plus 11+ tuition).

I am starting to think that the assessments given before were bullshit and the school are using the introduction of new SATs to radically reduce previous predictions whilst simultaneously claiming average progress.

Not sure anyone really knows what scaled scores will equate to level 5 and 6 wise.
100= at expected.
106 - 110 =above??
110 plus= very good??
115 plus = supersonic?
I don't know!!
Think in September gov going to clarify greater depth.
Will have to guess where level 5 or 6 might be as Nicky Morgan says 2 systems not comparable.
As for gcse predictions- maybe more idea in September?
Sure teacher types might have some intelligent thoughts....

I don't think even the GCSE mocks always accurately predict GCSE results let alone primary school assessments.
I don't think there should be too much of an emphasis on it. Anything can happen at secondary schools - kids rebel and become slackers, kids Find determination and knuckle down or they just coast along.

I've tutored some pupils from upper KS2 to as far as GCSE, and I think it is difficult to predict grades for some of them, particular when they have difficulties in specific areas, and when the assessments keep changing. I've had some who've struggled with the basic skills in primary, but who have a lot of insight into the analysis/themes aspect of English, and who have thus done well on GCSE despite not necessarily having good spelling. Others have been seen as quite high-flyers in primary, and can write reasonably accurately, or have learned the rules well for the tests they are taking now - but really don't get or don't enjoy the literature and analysis, find it hard to make summaries, can't use the rules flexibly in their own writing, etc. These differences can be even more pronounced in those with specific difficulties. And when the content of both the primary exams and the GCSEs are changing, it adds further difficulty in prediction.

It may be that, as you say, his knowledge of SPAG is excellent ( which means he should do well in the SPAG test in year 6) but he doesn't use it. Now the writing assessment is much more focused on the use of SPAG rather than on creativity and poetic expression! So a child who doesn't consistently use colons and semi colons, who doesn't include the passive voice and subjunctive mood.who doesn't demonstrate a use of the past progressive and present perfect tenses will be marked down and not achieve as highly as was previously thought possible.
We can't yet map SATS to GCSE predictions ( not that I am aware) because the Government has not yet decided how to map KS1 results to KS2, GCSE predictions will probably come later! We have been told that, in November when RAISEonline ( the school performance checking system) is published, the KS1 to KS2 progress will be available for school level data but not for individuals! How this will translate into GCSE predictions, heavens knows!

There won't be A-G grades when he takes GCSEs. From next year they are transitioning to 9-1. Making predictions* about GCSEs from KS2 results would be a dodgy business at an individual level anyway. Predictions come later, when the child is actually doing the course. Targets are set from KS2 data, based on whole cohort performance. But as we won't have any data mapping new SATs onto new GCSEs for 5 years, it will be pretty much random educated guesses until then.

ponderingprosecco I don't know any teacher types who have any intelligent thoughts on the subject. And I'm a teacher.

This is one of the biggest difficulties at the moment is that parents (quite rightly) are asking questions like this but we just haven't been briefed or equipped with the wherewithal to answer. It's like stabbing in the dark.

Even teachers who are currently teaching the new GCSE are struggling to predict grades for Y10 because of the complete lack of data about grade boundaries so the idea that primary school teachers can give you any sort of accurate forecast is laughable.

Even as a secondary teacher I wouldn't want to make any predictions for Y7 because a lot can happen in 5 years.

Putting aside the question if GCSEs can be predicted or not, this

I had some concerns about his writing but staff dismissed them on the basis that my expectations were too high wrt english as the best he could hope for at GCSE was a C grade, with a lot of effort and support.

concerns me.

So on the basis of a teacher's assumption regarding a child's abilities, the teacher now refuses to support that child in progressing past that assumed level (relatively speaking).

Self-fulfilling prophecy at all?

I know there has always been a question mark over the reliability and generalisability of data, but at least it was better than a stab in the dark as long as you remember that things can happen that are beyond your control. www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/429074/2014-06-16-analysis-of-use-of-key-stage-2-data-in-gcse-predictions.pdf

I understand that assessments have changed but I thought that this was an issue of semantics that did not really effect the way that DC attain even if we change the language and don't have enough longitudinal data to make accurate predictions and have to use wooly language. Spaniel has made it clear that KS2 assessment is of different things and so it is possible for a DC to make progress but go from above average to barely average despite this.

If all this nonsense is left behind at secondary then it does not really matter to DC2 (as long as he is not set according to SATs) because he would go back to (having never left) above average attainment and so this would not effect GCSE performance. But staff are now predicting average GCSE not just for English but for all written subjects and have said that he will always struggle and teachers will always be on his back . Has GCSE assessment also changed (or is likely to by the time he gets there)? How does this impact on A Level or university entrance?

chame teachers don't need to assume - his verbal reasoning cognitive ability as been assessed as 95th percentile using WISC and 98th percentile using BAS. So if he is set on underlying ability at secondary he will be in the top set but if he is set on performance in the classroom he will be in the bottom set. We are basically being told to reduce our expectations from top set to bottom set.

The thing is, predictions from now for another 5 years will be a stab in the dark. FFT data is revised every year based on how particular groups of pupils actually performed in their GCSEs against their KS2 data.

Until current Y6 sit their GCSEs we will have no proper data to show how this lot of KS2 data works out in terms of GCSEs, so it will be guesswork until then. Until a cohort of students actually sit the new GCSEs we don't even have any actual data mapping KS2 SATs levels to new GCSE performance.

It hasn't even yet been decided what percentage of students will be awarded a grade 8 or 9.

Last year's Y11 were the year of the SATs boycott so we didn't have KS2 data for the FFT targets. Their targets were bobbins, all over the shop. I had kids in top set maths getting A*s who had targets of a C. So if your primary school teachers think they can predict anything with any accuracy, they are wrong.

Your child is Year 5 and you are already wanting predictions for his GCSE's in 6 years time???? Sorry but

Anything can happen between now and then. There's already a huge change in syllabus and different headings for GCSE's next year and who knows what might happen after that if it doesn't work out as planned. Everything could change again.

Even if your son dies end up in a low set, that doesn't mean he would stay there. Any school reviews results/progress regularly and moves children between sets accordingly.

Your son may well do brilliantly in SPAG tests and be above expected, but if he can't apply that to his writing across the curriculum (which lots of students can't), then he's not going to be in the higher sets.

Agree with the comment made by LiveLifeWithPassion in that anything can happen at secondary. Previously hard working children hit teen years and just can't be bothered or vice versa.

Wtf with these teacher predictions that your 10 year old will always struggle and lower your expectations?? Has he been assessed for eg dyslexia? Its often linked to asd.

lady I think the is undeserved

I am being pressured by autism outreach specialist teachers to choose secondary school to be named on DS2's Statement/EHCP in order that they can communicate with the school and plan transition. I know this is earlier than for other DC, year 5 instead of year 6, but this is due to his needs, not because I am precious. As transition is very difficult I have to be certain that the school I choose is the right place for him to be until at least 16, preferably 18/19. Hence, the seemingly obsessive five year plan. I should have made this clearer.

The two local secondary schools are very different from each other - one is outstanding and levels of attainment are very high. They don't have a good reputation for ASD, especially cognitively able ASD. The other secondary school is not high attaining but some parents prefer a less demanding academic environment. Outreach think I should name the outstanding academy but at the same time I am being told that DS2 can only hope to achieve 'average'. This school might be OK if DS2 is in the top set with fast paced and challenging teaching, but is likely to be disastrous if he is in the bottom set and he is likely to become even more disengaged.

bomb according to the EP he has 'difficulties similar to a child with dyslexia' and there is a statistically significant gap between ability and attainment. Whether this means that DS2 has dyslexia is anyone's guess!

As a parent of a teen with ASD I would advise you go with the less academic school

I made the wrong choice and the academic pressure plus the additional social expectations of being a teen led to her having a breakdown

She's starting a new school in September which has a much better reputation for supporting cognitively able children with ASD

My dd has ASD & underperformed in primary (they had no idea she has asd). English was a weak point as she just didn't write despite her reading comprehension bring excellent.

She didn't do sats.

Fast forward & she's about to go into Year 10 & is now predicted top grades. The difference is due to being at a school who understand asd, she has totally turned it around. She has a Mensa level IQ & this year won the KS3 English prize.

So take heart that the primary teachers may be wrong. Go with your gut feeling as to which school will teach & relate to your dd the best regardless of its results on paper.

Incidentally dds teachers are reluctant to predict actual GCSE grades as the 9-1 is still so Unknown.

I would go for the school that's good with children with ASD. So many children with ASD struggle at secondary school, not just in transition but with puberty and then the pressure of GCSE. An environment that is supportive is crucial, otherwise your very able child may end up crashing out of school. The support is as vital to your DC achieving good grades as the academic environment.

Take a look around both schools and question the SEN departments extensively.

Thank you for your advice.

Unfortunately, I know all about ASD cognitively able children crashing out of school courtesy of DS1 - 15 and had no educational input for a year and a half. SOS!SEN had to start JR proceedings in order for the LA to take any action re delivering provision in his statement and tuition plus reintegration into an alternative suitable school.

Emo - I also blame myself for making the wrong choice for DS1 and fear making the wrong choice for DS2. Watching your child suffer because you feel you made the wrong choice is torture. I hope DD's new school works out for her

ballet - that is fantastic - well done you and well done your DD. what did the secondary school do differently to the primary school that made the crucial difference?