Expected or average?

[Blackcathaireverywhere]

When our school (and a lot of websites) explain the national curriculum levels, the terms 'expected' 'average' and 'expected average' seem to be used interchangeably.

Does anyone know (preferably linking me to an explanation!!) whether the levels 2B for year two and 4B for year 6 are actually 'expected' (and so I guess it is possible that 80ish% would obtain that) or if they are average? And are there any figures anywhere that would say what percentage get higher and lower levels?

Thank you!

i think 'expected' is the average - on our school reports they show the national average, the average for the class, and your own child's attainment.

In our y6 some will get level 6, some 5 and everyone at least 4.

Level 2b and 4b were originally the average scores for the year groups, so some above and some below. Then the government changed "average" to mean "expected" so now every child is expected to achieve these levels.

Cumbrialass is correct other than using sublevels, these do not officially exist, a child is expected to make 2levels of progress from ks1 to ks2 for example, this could be from a 2a to a 4c.

Expected really means minimally acceptable to the powers that be!

Thank you for the replies.

Hmmm, so if they are averages, it seems a little unreasonable to also call them 'expected'. They can't expect everyone to be average or better than average can they?! That's not average!

I'm still wondering if there is a breakdown of what percentage achieve different levels is anyone knows.

The history of when average levels were changed to expected can be found here - the article is called 'Playing Politics With the 3Rs', and sums up the situation perfectly!

Alhough trinity0097 is correct in that sublevels don't exist in theory, in practice a child is expected to make a minimum of 12 points progress over the 4 years from KS1 to KS2, which can only be measured by using sublevels! So, no they don't exist and yes they do!

not sure when this was last updated, but it gives you an idea of the average spread of levels (which of course will vary (often wildly) from school to school and even cohort to cohort in the same school)

Remember that what they finish y2.with will automatically set the a target.of two full levels progress for the end.of y6. So if they leave y2 on a 1a, a 3a would be expected progress, even though it's 'below average.
Conversely, a child who got a 3b at end of ks1 but.only.got a 4a at the end of y6 wouldnt be 'expected progress even though technically they've hit the magic 4.

Worth noting that in many.schools 2 levels.progress is no.longer considered good enough, hence we inherited some rather questionable level 3s from the infants and are expected to get many of.them sixes. hollow guffaw

We are the same, 15 points progress is now the target!

15 for us too cumbrialass. This is do-able for many of them, but a considerable few come up every yeaf from the infants with 3s when they just WEREN'T! So irritating and unfair.