Ukraine, Russia tensions and China

[EzzieLove]

Reading through the news each day, focus is very much on COVID, which is understandable. I enjoy reading everyone’s tips and suggestions for being generally prepared but I am a little concerned about the tension that seems to building up around Ukraine and Russia. Also, has anyone else noticed how quite it has gone regarding China! I saw a news article about China moving a lot of military equipment a few weeks ago, concerns over Taiwan etc, but now very quiet. Any thoughts?

Oh, and all these pictures of cats! I have a new puppy.

At the moment I think it's 90% saber-rattling and 10% can we make a move.

We have a relatively "new face" in the Whitehouse (not helped by the sudden pullout of Afgan), So Russia, China, and presumably a few countries / big organizations will push to see what the reaction is.

However, both Russia and China have a lot of money invested in Europe and America. Russia supplies a lot of gas and oil to Europe and yes it's a nice big stick to threaten us with, especially if we do get a cold winter. But it's not really good business sense to really stop supplying a market, especially when other players like India and Brazil would love to take a slice of the market.

I would be more concerned about unexplained glitches in the supply chain, possibly a ship having problems in the Suez Canal, than Russian tanks making a dash for Berlin

Yeah I’m hoping it’s just willy waving from Putin. I’m more worried about China though, I suspect they will go into Taiwan at some point

I'm not sure China will take Taiwan by force, but rather by a combination of fear and money.

China tends to think long-term. It wants to attract supporters in the pacific rather than have to occupy areas. So if it can show America can not be relied on to protect Taiwan, demonstrate that they can easily slip in past Taiwan's air defense and possibly a cyber attack on Taiwan's infrastructure, how long before the people decided they would rather be back with the mainland?

@EzzieLove how right were you! Any other forecasts to be aware of?