Farage receives second £36m donation in two days for Reform

[Greyrock79]

Farage receives second £36m donation in two days.

Reform’s biggest donor Christopher Harborne matched record donation given on Friday by fellow cryptocurrency billionaire Ben Delo

You can post as you wish, as can anyone else. We agree on that.

I will ignore you from now.

You remarked on their posts in a fairly scathing way, this is their thread. I wasn’t scathing just wondered why the op gets posts like that since it’s not compulsory to read what they’re saying.

@MelissaLovedMantari

Perhaps lobby your MP if that is what you would like to see happen?

I don’t know ant to see that happen, but asking someone who seems to think polls are reliable.

@MrsBennetsPoorNervesAreBack

Typo. Latest date of the next general election is

15 August 2029

I’ve responded to the OP’s posts throughout, many of which were rather scathing of others in my view. Thus I’d understood the OP’s style as someone who was quite robust, able
to give as good as they got and wouldn’t be offended. You were not scathing no, you were patronising and I responded in kind. I don’t see that as unreasonable, others are free to disagree.

@MelissaLovedMantari

But the fact remains that all the polls have Labour in the lead right now, apart from YouGov which has a tie between Reform and Labour.

One of your previous posts stated that polls can’t be used to forecast the outcome of general elections. That so, what’s the value of polls? Particularly taking into account the UK electoral system of first past the post.

I would like to know how polls are audited to ensure they are not biased.

What's the value of polls? Surely that is obvious. They gauge the current mood of the public.

I would like to know how polls are audited to ensure they are not biased

Most pollsters publish the methodology they use. I have no idea how or if they are audited. Perhaps do some research if you are concerned.

But if the "tactical voters" gave their head a shake they would understand how the country and it"s laws are really influenced, looks like Labour want to ban hereditary peerages so they can stuff the Lords with their own choices so they can push through more free money give aways?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/dec/10/keir-starmer-appoints-25-labour-peers-in-bid-to-strengthen-support-in-house-of-lords

No and I still don’t get the attraction for some. But anyway you’ve agreed not to engage with the op so all good.

You didn't address a single point I made - just some guff about 'tactical voters' needing to be better informed

Tactical voters will get along fine without your 'advice'

@MelissaLovedMantari

They gauge the current mood of the public.

That’s the bit I don’t buy into. There are approximately 48 million registered voters in the United Kingdom. So, how can a sample of a few thousand be extrapolated to reflect 48 million?

More significantly, polls have been wrong in the past regarding general elections and the referendum as follows:

1992

https://www.reuters.com/article/opinion/from-1992-why-the-uk-pollsters-got-it-wrong-idUS1333858313/

2015

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/why-did-the-pollsters-get-the-general-election-results-so-wrong/

2016

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/24/how-eu-referendum-pollsters-wrong-opinion-predict-close

I also remember a petition to revoke article 50 attracted 6 million signatures, but Brexit happened regardless

Do you understand the power the house of lords has as opposed to a couple of tech bros who live overseas?

I don't think anyone has said the polls are always right. I remember what happened in 1992.

Maybe you should start a thread about polls as this is turning into a bit of a derail.

People are feee to vote however they choose. Including tactical. I voted Labour in 2024. Not because I thought they were the best, but to get the conservatives out.

You have still not responded to the points I made and are off on some personal deflection that I'm not particularly interested in responding to

Seen you do this so many times before

The basic answer is, of course it can"t be relied on! Polls are used to cast doubt on parties/referendums that challenge the accepted order.

@MelissaLovedMantari

Maybe you should start a thread about polls as this is turning into a bit of a derail.

Not a detail, but one of your earlier posts used the phrase “our tracker” and referenced YouGov at the same time. Made me think you worked for YouGov.

@KeepPumping

The basic answer is, of course it can"t be relied on! Polls are used to cast doubt on parties/referendums that challenge the accepted order.

The only helpful reply to my questions regards polls.😀

Essentially polls are viewed as correct when they say what people want to hear and wrong when they don’t.

Today’s polls show at best Labour 2.9% ahead of Reform. Some are less and YouGov has them equal at 23%.

However, some posters on this thread, and others, think the small leads are kryptonite. Maybe they forgot how many times they said a 4% difference in the 2016 referendum was not enough to make an informed decision even though 33.4 million took part which is massively more than the opinion polls which are a few thousand?

I made it pretty clear I was quoting from the YouGov site. I don't work for them.

But until recently, and for quite a long time, Reform was leading in all the polls. So could the polls be relied on then but not now that Labour is leading?

@MelissaLovedMantari

Okay. I googled whether or not opinion polls are audited. It did not produce a single result.

So, my view is that they can be whatever the publisher wants them to be.

Well if you are correct it seems the pollsters, despite having Reform in the hlead in their polls for many months, have decided they no longer want Farage to be PM. Happy days!

The poll methodology is published by the legitimate polling companies. For the established polling companies, their business model relies on the reliability of their polls.

@MelissaLovedMantari

despite having Reform in the hlead in their polls for many months, have decided they no longer want Farage to be PM

You forget that seats and vote percentages are not correlated. So, by definition polls are pointless.

Unfortunately, MPs seem to trust them and operate as weather vanes and change their minds accordingly.

@concertinacornflake

For the established polling companies, their business model relies on the reliability of their polls.

This prompts the question already asked, but not answered.

If polls are reliable, why bother with general elections?

If polls are reliable, why bother with general elections?

Polls only measure voting intention
Elections measure actual voting