Trump and World Peace

[Kendodd]

How did you think the world will turn with America under Trump?

My thoughts.
Ukraine.
Trump will try to do a deal with Putin ceding the eastern states of Ukraine to Russia. I think Putin has got his fingers burnt in Ukraine and despite fears this will embolden him to attack other countries, I don't think he will. Or at least not countries in Europe, Georgia (we can argue about whether that's in Europe or not) and some of the Stans might be under threat though. I think this will be more likely (successful) political interference from Russia than troops on the ground though. I think winning the eastern states will play as a big win for Putin in Russia and allow him to climb down. Zelenski will object, seek support from Europe, won't get it, and will be forced to accept and move into exile with a Russia price on his head.
Trump will portray this as a massive win and himself as the peacemaker.

This episode will embolden China and North Korea.
China will invade Taiwan, Trump won't give a shit and nobody else will put money or troops into defending Taiwan. Europe/Austrailia may impose some sanctions and strong words at the UN, but that'll be it.

North Korea may want or try to invade South Korea. I think North Korea is in a difficult position here though. If they were to invade South Korea and send troops across the border, well, that also pulls back the curtains. North Koreans get a proper view of the South and the lies and brainwashing of the North Korean leadership are exposed. So, don't really have any idea what will happen there.

Middle East
Trump will be wholeheartedly in support of Israel and willing to arm whatever action they take. Iran will also now be on their own as I think it will lose any support it may have had from Russia or China. Neither country really give a shit about Iran, it was just a 'my enemies enemy is my friend' situation. Militarily, America will no longer be Russia or China's enemy.

Europe again will have strong words but thats all.
I don't think Israel's military might will be enough to streamroller its enemies though, the terror and attacks against Israel and exported to the RoW will continue and grow. Israel may win a war with Iran though, in much the same way the West 'won' a war in Afghanistan. Can't see a path for real peace here.

As may be clear, I really no nothing about international relations so hopefully those better informed can put me right.

Things were peaceful under Trump last time around 🤷
I think we need to acknowledge that we have no idea of what goes on behind the scenes in international politics. We don’t know where these countries get their funding, where they get their weapons and military training from. Billions of dollars get sunk into these conflicts and who’s paying? Who’s stumping up the cash? How’s it being transferred? Whose bank accounts is it going into? How is high tech military equipment getting across the borders?
If Trump can attack these supply lines, which he did when dealing with North Korea previously, many of these conflicts will probably fizzle out enough for peacemakers to enter.

The US economic model stopped working for a large number of normal people (it works very well for ultra rich), so people voted for Trump not because he can help, but because he promised to destroy the old system.

A law is real only when it is enforced. The international law do not have an international body to enforce it. The major world armies could enforce the law IF they wanted / agreed to do it. So, the US and the members of the UN security councel did it occasionally pretend to care when it was in their interest.

The US under Trump will not care about the UN laws. The US has got a huge army, plenty of military bases worldwide and a permanent seat in the UN security councel. If the US does not care, nobody can do much. So, we are entering a different stage that is pretty grim and dark.

@Kendodd you might have called be first but correctly!

Zelenski will object, seek support from Europe, won't get it, and will be forced to accept and move into exile with a Russia price on his head.
Trump will portray this as a massive win and himself as the peacemaker.

*The first bit

“Things were peaceful under Trump last time around 🤷”

According to Trump, he keeps saying that.

The 2014 invasion of Ukraine by Putins little green men of the Wagner Group and his army with their badges off did take place before Trumps time, but the fighting carried on through Trumps first term. Remember Trumps ‘quid pro quo’ call with Zelensky threatening to withhold the sale of anti tank weapons unless Zelensky announced fake investigations of Hunter Biden?

Or the first open Russia attack on Ukrainian ships in the 2018 ‘Kirch Strait incident’
Trumps reaction to that was “Not good. We’re not happy about it at all. Not at all. We’ve let our position be known, and we’re not happy about it.”

Trump likes to say that he is strong and Putin : others don’t do anything when he’s president
Putin does what he wants, and Trumps mouth backs up Putins demands

I forgot about the Ukraine/Hunter Biden thing, I bet Trump hasn't though and this is (partly) payback time for Zelenski.
I think I was, so far, right about Israel as well. Trump hates Palestinians so would happily 'clear them out' and is in full support of anything Israel does. I'm waiting to hear what Trumps promised announcement on the future of the West Bank is.

There's a lot of talk about Putin having some dirt of Trump. I don't believe it and I think even if he did it wouldn't do Trump any damage anyway. I can't think of a single thing Putin could possibly have that would damage Trump. Massive corruption, just shrug it off, sadistic sex video, just denied. Nothing would make a dent.
I think Trump supports Putin because he admires Putin. Putin sees what he wants and just takes it, this is what Trump wants for himself and America.

Putin is too smart for Trump and runs rings round him. That is very dangerous to acceptable peace. Trump thinks he is in charge of things world wide which is also going to be dangerous when countries don't do what he wants them to do.

So, I might keep revisiting this thread, see how my predictions play out.
I didn't know anything about the mineral wealth in Ukraine and had just forgotten to factor in Trump leaning on Zelenskyy to get dirt on Biden and Trumps grudge holding.

I think so far I've been right on Israel as well.

You were spot on on Israel and Russia OP. I'm not sure anyone could see that Gaza Riviera coming though.

This is all so terrifying

I don't think Gaza Riviera will happen.

He’s made it clear how things will turn. Trump is a businessman who expects payment to be made in finances and flattery for every move he makes. Appearances are also more important than facts. He’s the leader and all else shall bow. He rather appears like any of the grand emperors, of the Chinese courts or eastern Islamic states (any of them). He has no interest in democracy or ideas or ideals, nor history, having forgotten or never known the many lessons, negotiations and compromises that many ear eastern and European peoples have had to make: learning the lessons of limits on sheer male ape power obsessions.

Evidently the human race is doomed to repeat until every state and continent learns that, again and again beyond any possibility of forgetting. So, until forever then.

@NoOneKnowsWhoYouAre There were talks of building a resort in Gaza etc. by the Trump clan before Trump’s presidential inauguration so I’m not sure how anyone was even surprised. There were rumours about this for many years but it was openly mentioned last year.

I’m sure they have plenty of komromat on trump and in turn trump seems to be able to strong arm republicans who haven’t always supported him. Who know why?

I think it’s pretty clear that trump is an admirer and supporter of putin, has possibly benefited personally from Russian interference in American politics. What next is what I wonder…

Are you mystic meg?

But seriously, the world is in a dreadful place right now.

I can't see how it can happen, it would be (understandably) under constant attack from people who (rightly) want their land back.

Didn’t the CIA find that there had been Russian meddling in the 2016 election that Trump won?

r

Vance is doing his bit for world peace and building good relations ...pillock, he is both stupid and insulting.

R.I.P. United States of America.
You are now a province of Russia under the puppet master Putin.😔

@Jacquettes I don’t understand how Trump was able to run again if that was the case?

How are my predictions doing so far ?