Who would like to liven up the General Election by having a competition to see who makes the best predictions? 😀 The object: to win by making the best Portillo Moment prediction.
Here are the rules. The winner gets bragging rights only. There there will be no betting.
Rule 1. Each player must nominate 6 candidates standing in the General Election who they believe will lose their seat. Accordingly, each candidate must have been elected in the 2019 General Election. By-elections don't count.
Rule 2. A player scores points when a candidate they've nominated doesn't win. Points will be equal to the defeated nominated candidate's 2019 majority (as recorded on Wikipedia.) Their majority is their number of votes more than the second-placed candidate. It doesn't matter whether they lose by 5 votes or 5,000.
Rule 3. Nominations may be made by posting on this thread, and must be received before polls close.
Rule 4. The winning contestant is the one with the highest aggregate number of points when all results are in.
Examples of how the rules work:
Example of rule 1: Theresa May can't be nominated as she isn't standing this time. Lee Anderson and Jeremy Corbyn can be nominated as they are standing, even though they're not standing for the same party as in 2019.
Example of rule 2:
- Belfast North (2019 result): John Finucane (SF) 23,078; Nigel Dodds (DUP) 21,135; Nuala McAllister (All) 4,824. John Finucane's majority is 1,943. A player nominating him gets 1,943 points if he loses or 0 points if he holds his seat.
- Islington North (2019 result): Jeremy Corbyn (Lab) 34,603; Nick Wakeling (LD) 8,415; James Clark (Con) 5,843; Caroline Russsel (G) 4,326; Yosef David (Brexit) 742; Nick the Incredible Flying Brick (Monster) 236. Jeremy Corbyn's majority is 26,188. A player nominating him gets 26,188 points if he loses or 0 points if he holds his seat. The fact Corbyn is standing as an independent this time doesn't matter.
Anyone else want to play?