Is America close to civil war?

[Storminamu]

Professor Barbara Walter sits on America's Political Instability Taskforce, and she says that the country is dangerously close to civil war.
www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/dec/20/us-closer-to-civil-war-new-book-barbara-walter-trump-capitol-attack

No.

She has a book coming out in January. This is to get her on the talk shows to promote it.

She's written a book about it. Academics do write books - doesn't mean they're lying about what they say in those books or the interviews around them.
And 2 retired generals are even more concerned than she is, thinking the army may be compromised.

I think that the people who might be inclined to start such a war are such a microscopic percentage of the population that the chances of it actually happening closely approach zero.

I take it that you are not an American.

If Covid has become less of a worry, and the 2024 elections are in any way contentious, then yeah, the potential is there. For instance, Democrat senators represent 40 million more people than the Republicans, but the senate is split 50:50. Also Biden got 10 million more votes than Trump, but if he was short of around 50,000 in the right places he'd have lost - numbers like those would seem to me to be a cause of some tension....

The republicans are changing the voting borders around in as many places as they can to ensure they get control of the lower house, even if they get fewer votes (and in the meantime making it harder and harder to vote in democrat strongholds), and some state legislatures are threatening to send their electoral college votes in for the Republican candidate, even if the Democrat wins in their state (which they're allowed to do BTW).

I think most Americans are too preoccupied with trying to keep their heads above water financially to have much time for a civil war though.....

No. HTH

@Hotchox

I think most Americans are too preoccupied with trying to keep their heads above water financially to have much time for a civil war though.....

I realize that making sneery anti-American comments is an involuntary reflex for some on MN, but thought you should know you can stop worrying about Americans, as their per capita GDP and average wages are well above those in the UK.

Country comparison United States vs United Kingdom

@MissConductUS

I think that the people who might be inclined to start such a war are such a microscopic percentage of the population that the chances of it actually happening closely approach zero.

I take it that you are not an American.

The point isn't whether I'm American or not. The point is that the people who thinks this is a risk are 1) a political science professor at the University of California at San Diego who sits on the Political Instability Task Force, and 2) and 3) and 4) three retired generals wrote in the Post that they were “increasingly concerned about the aftermath of the 2024 presidential election and the potential for lethal chaos inside our military”. The Task Force has the job of analysing foreign countries for signs of impending civil war etc. Walter says: “if you were an analyst in a foreign country looking at events in America – the same way you’d look at events in Ukraine or Ivory Coast or Venezuela – you would go down a checklist, assessing each of the conditions that make civil war likely”. “And what you would find is that the United States, a democracy founded more than two centuries ago, has entered very dangerous territory.” Walter, the Post said, concludes that the US has passed through stages of “pre-insurgency” and “incipient conflict” and may now be in “open conflict”, beginning with the Capitol riot.

Large scale civil unrest, yes. But I also think that's the case in the UK and a lot of other countries thanks to the fall out from Covid and lockdowns.

Full on civil war, nope.

I'm still amazed Obama wasn't assassinated whilst in office TBH.

A major problem with the United States is of course the accessibility of guns of all types, and a strong belief held by many that they have the right to use them.

No. Nowhere near civil war. Civil unrest maybe, but not civil war.

I think she is a second rate hack desperately flogging her shitty book with deliberately misleading tweets. She should lose her Professor status and be consigned to ignominy.

Her tweet in the article you linked about how the CIA cannot legally look at political instability within the USA, so they are “blind” to the risks is pure unadulterated bullshit.

The reason the CIA cannot legally investigate political instability within the USA is because that’s the job of the I&A, DIA, TFI and NSA depending on the type of issue. So the USA is not “blind” at all. She knows this, you can’t be on a CIA taskforce and not know they’re not the only intelligence agency in the USA’s IC.

And she’s being ridiculous claiming a civil war = end of democracy. USA was a democracy before, during and after its actual Civil War between Union and Confederacy.

The last president literally refused to accept the democratic vote to get rid of him, and attempted to whip his supporters into supporting a coup instead. Those supporters literally stormed the government building, taking on law enforcement officers with one casualty. Meanwhile, spurious challenges to various parts of the election were launched all over the country, supported by most of the Republican party.

That ex-President is widely touted to be the most likely Republican presidential candidate in 2024. Meanwhile his supporters and colleagues are beavering away in various levels of the judiciary, federal, state and municipal government to gerrymander the system and make it harder for their opponents to vote. So he probably won't "lose" - because the system will have been made to ensure he can't. But if he does? . . .

Oh no, civil war? How silly. What's on telly tonight?

There's a wage crisis in both the UK and US. Probably not civil war time but people are restive. Especially people on minimum wage working out of home who are just starting to be epically monumentally fucked, money wise.

Hope lies in the proles and all that.

Check out this radio programme the coming storm on the development of American right....

www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m001324r

And here's Bidens speech on the anniversary of the insurrection from yesterday nailing the seriousness of the coming storm...

And how its getting harder to vote in America - the GOP are learning to do better corruption for 2024...

www.theguardian.com/us-news/2022/jan/07/assault-on-american-democracy-has-gained-pace-since-us-capitol-attack

And the UK current administration isn't far behind is it...

Terrifying times ahead - a world ruled by dictatorship...

I am nowhere near qualified to know the answer to this, but I have been wondering how on earth some of the states can co-exist in the same united country.

I just got back from Florida - it’s completely free and open. Then the other day I was reading a thread about visiting New York, where toddlers wear masks and unvaccinated 5 year olds aren’t allowed inside anywhere.

I don’t know how anything will play out but it doesn’t feel like the same country.

If America becomes dictatorship we are truly fu$#@#... look at Russia and China human rights abusesleading the way .... Taiwan... Hong Kong... Ukraine... belarus... Thailand... kazakhstan .. Hungary... Poland.... and on amd on...

Who against who?

twitter.com/LBC/status/1479437034188165127?s=20

The coming storm podcast guy chats about biden speech on lbc...

Not another America bashing thread! One just got pulled yesterday.

I would like to direct people to read George Washington's farewell address on Wikipedia, It is a interesting read.

fwiw I didn't take the original comment as sneery. More a realistic recognition that there are serious cost of living challenges at the moment across a number of countries and that, as always, the people who feel this the most are the normal, everyday people just trying to get by.

The chart you posted though is very interesting and actually cheered me up a bit. We're doing better in more areas than I would have thought we were. So that's nice.