What are the chances of 3 M/C in a row?

[CeeWolf]

March 2009: Live birth
August 2010: MMC at 11 weeks. Blighted ovum.
Feb 2012: Live birth
Dec 2013: MMC at 11 weeks, embryo measured 6 weeks.
May 2014: MMC at 10weeks, embryo measured 8 weeks.

Other relevant info:

Hashimoto's thyroiditis, on thyroxine. Positive for both anti-thyroglobulin and anti-TPO antibodies.

Positive for anti-phospholipid antibodies, discovered after last MC, but not confirmed with second test, due to arrogant GP.

Now pregnant again. Nearly 9 weeks. Does anyone know what are my chances of a 3rd miscarriage in a row?

congratulations on your pregnancy.

I'm so sorry to hear about your losses.

I'm no expert but I've just suffered my 2nd miscarriage in a short space of time so I did ask the doctor about this just this week.

The way he described it to me is that 1 in 6 pregnancies will end before 12 weeks therefore the chance of it happening twice in a row is 1 in 36 and the chance of it happening 3 times in a row is 1 in 200 ish (none of us could work out what 3 ×36 was off the top of our head). As I say this is by no means scientific evidence but what he was explaining was that once or even twice is "bad luck" bur the chance of spontaneous miscarriage with no underlying cause is less likely to occur repeatedly.

I don't know if I've explained that properly but I just wanted to try and share because it has given me a bit if comfort. I'm sure someone much more knowledgeable will be along soon.

Best of luck for your pregnancy.

cee you are very welcome to join the RMC thread for some support if you would like. We have several posters who are pregnant after RMC at the moment and everyone understands how difficult it is.
rocking is quite right that about 15% of confirmed pregnancies end in miscarriage, mostly due to spontaneous chromosome defects. The recurrent (3 in a row) rate is around 1% of couples, which is more than 0.15x0.15x0.15, reflecting the fact that in some women it's not just shitty luck and there is something wrong. If nothing is found on RMC testing you have a 70% chance of success next time, if appropriate treatment is given for a diagnosed condition the figures always seem to be around that level as well.
Have you had your thyroxine increased since your BFP and your TSH regularly monitored? Are you on treatment for the APS?
I really hope you are on the right side of the stats this time - do you have a scan coming up?

this is interesting to read as I'm literally sitting here and thinking if I have it in me to try again after 2 mc in a row.

Today I decided to throw out some of DDs things that I'd been hanging onto for DC2. It felt good to de-clutter but like I was somehow confirming that the dream of DC2 was over.