Is applying ambitiously and relying on clearing reasonable in DC’s situation?

[Bufftailed]

Thanks anyone who can advise.

DC is heading for a bit of an unpredictable set of A level results. 2 seem fairly secure, one is not although teacher thinks he will go up a lot. He wants to do Economics.

So having scrutinized clearing grades & UCAS pages am thinking: he goes for a pretty ambitious set of 5 and sees what offers he gets. The elite are out, but some stretches which took lower grades in clearing/ show they take high % of applicants/ have slightly lower ‘most common grades’.

The unis he would go to if his grades drop are all in clearing, eg Reading, UEA, Sussex with much lower grades, so clearing is the back up. Quite a few guarantee accommodation. If he had to take a year off he is also open to that.

Is this strategy ok? Wondering what the downsides are.

Sounds reasonable yes with that type of uni. I assume they went down to an achievable level, ie whatever his two secure grades are plus a worse case scenario if the third doesn’t improve? If he’d be relying on his 3rd increasing by a couple of grades I’d suggest 4 of those stretches plus a foundation year as his fifth. He should get five offers, and I’d suggest firming his favourite stretch and insuring the FY. If his favourite stretch automatically offers a FY place to those that miss by a lot (ask them!) even better.

The issue with clearing places is accommodation. Your son could end up miles away from campus, or in private rooms with none of the student experience. It’s probably still worth the risk, however, and he could always take a year out.

Is he likely to get offers though? E.g. if he's predicted AAB and you're applying to AAA is that realistic? Or are you saying he's predicted AAA but may not achieve it?

Thanks. If he misses the grade he will probs do an A level in year 14 rather than foundation, but the fy at one of the unis is in clearing so I don’t think worth putting down. If he had a stretch as firm there would be a huge gap between that and a course with a fy.

Sorry that went weird with the stars. But basically was asking if he's going to apply for 5 that are all above his predicted grades?

Sounds a reasonable plan. Ds did similar this year though with a less popular subject. Reading etc are always in clearing and its seems easier to get accommodation as a clearing candidate than insurance. Our thinking was that if he didn't get the grades for a Reading type uni then uni probably wasn't right for him.

One downside might be that if he can't find a suitable place in clearing he will have to take a year out. I know you said he is open to the idea but that's still a mindset switch to move from "going to university" to "what am I going to next year?"

Why not put down 4 ambitious and 1 safe? He's going to have to choose a firm choice anyway, so having the safe as the insurance might be better than another "more ambitious" as insurance. Are his predicted grades good enough to actually get offers in the first place? If this is a bit unsure, then choosing 5 ambitious is an alternative strategy because, if he gets 5 rejections, he can then apply somewhere else.

He doesn’t have predictions yet. He would likely be 1-2 grades off the standard offer of the top 1-2 on our list, but at or above what they asked for in clearing. But, as I said looking at choices that offer a high % of applicants. Not without risk, but feel we have contingency.

On this, is there any info about getting offers when predictions are slightly lower? Not talking about top unis, which would be different. But say rank 16 onwards or so. Found info on pretty much everything else but not that

Thanks. What do you mean he can apply somewhere else?

And Clearing places are not necessarily available to Home Students. He needs to include at least one which matches his pg or lower. Those which have standard offers above may reject him out of hand. If he receives no offers he can go into Extra in the Spring.

He’ll get offers from those types of uni. Theres no reason not to given they’re all desperate to get bums on seats. The tier that your looking at is suffering because RGs are accepting at lower offers, which means that tier loses out to them so in turn has to lower its acceptwnces. Which in turn means the middle are being squeezed, squeezing the post-92s etc….

For more certainty, he could apply for three earlyish - I imagine they’d all delegate admissions so offers would be automatic and fairly quick, then add a couple of lower offer unis early Jan if he’d had nothing by Christmas.

You can do a FOI to the Unis, asking about the course offer rates for home students, non-clearing, non-contextual (if that's your case), for each grade profile, so you get something like

AAA 75%
AAB 50%
ABB 30%
etc
and can ask for the actual number of offers and number of applicants (per grade profile).
You've got time to do the above as they are supposed to reply within 30 days.

Agree with a PP that would put one down that has the standard offer matching the predicted.

Thanks. All the back ups we looked at this year had places for home students.

Yes think will ensure 1 or ideally 2 are pg. Some of these unis went from ABB - BCC or AAA to BBB so assuming there might be flexibility.

Has anyone got experience of applying to slightly lower ranked unis (not top 15) with slightly lower predictions?

Applicants with 5/5 rejections can apply again in year. Won’t happen though!

OK, so universities make offers based on predicted grades.
So if their standard offer is AAA and he is predicted ABB, he probably won't get an offer. Even if they make ABB or lower offers to students in Clearing.

I would specifically ask at university open days (or contact admissions staff) if they make offers to students who have predicted grades lower than the standard offer. There is absolutely no point applying somewhere if he will just get a straight rejection.

DDs are also a bit random, she's gone from an E to an A in one subject. I think if she's predicted say AAA she will apply for 2 at that level, 2 AAB and one ABB. Just approximately. I don't think she wants to apply for any with A stars if she isn't predicted an A star. Some unis like Bath for example are really selective even if you are predicated the right grades. So I don't think I would do 5 stretch options, maybe 3 with 2 realistic?

I didn’t realise this was an option. Just to clarify…are you saying that you can apply for a few now, then a few before the deadline? I assumed that there was one shot at the application, where you either fill in all 5, or if blanks are left, they cannot be filled in once you hit “submit”.

Thanks - it’s baffling if he is clear of what they consistently take in clearing. If they gave him their standard offer and he didn’t get it they could reject him then anyway.

I will ask directly and hopefully someone on here has tried applying with slightly lower grades.

Yeah. I do think there is a big difference in approach with top 15 unis and then the next tranche. The top won’t be flexible. But we are not looking at those..well done your DD turning those round!

Yeah this is an option apparently. Does the adding of options need to go through school I wonder

Honestly OP I think you should do the usual, 2 aspirant, 2 likely, 1 safe bet, based on predicted grades when he has them. Then see how things land. He could even apply to 4 places, early on in Sept, see how that shakes out and add the 5th just before the January deadline.

There is no point applying to 5 aspirant choices only to have them automatically rejected. You'll have wasted opportunities if you do that.

Economics is still a competitive subject. There is also no guarantee there will ever be places in clearing next year, and if there are, no guarantee someone else with better grades than your son, won't take those places. Then where is he left? Its just too big a gamble.

Yes exactly that.

There are several strategies you could consider here:

1. “apply high to all”. If you get rejected from all 5, you can enter something called UCAS Extra and apply to others, 1 at a time.

2. Apply for fewer than 5 choices initially and see what happens and use the remaining choices wisely if you want to finish A levels with your first choice (and perhaps accom, depending on the Uni, firmed up).

3. Apply to achievable Unis (and accom if applicable) and see how DS feels in August.

4. Do nothing, and apply grades in hand. You probably need to talk to school about this if you want a reference for 27/8 round (personally I’d just apply this Autumn).

With economics, there is a huge variation in the type of degree you come out with. Back last century, Bristol’s compulsory modules were maths and stats heavy, Exeter much less so.

DD has just finished yr1, doing the course she really wanted to do. After a “disappointing” set of mocks that she did minimal work for, she got her act together to get the grades for her first choice.

I seem to remember that one of the Uni choices websites reports offer rates by Uni for a lot of courses. You should also look to see which Unis care about personal statements or put an emphasis on GCSEs. I suspect the top-tier Economics Unis will favour students with a 9 in maths (but maybe not)?

I would also look to see which Unis have back-tracked on guaranteed accommodation for year 1 (or not, as the case may be).

FWIW, all the kids I’ve seen have a gap year have matured enormously and are very much ready to go to Uni.

The other thing to remember about clearing is they are often making an exception at that stage, if they take lower than the usual grades. They don't need to do that if you're applying normally and they won't. If that makes sense.