Too early for a Medicine 2027 thread?

[SuperSue77]

Just wondered if there was any interest in a medicine 2027 thread for those of us with YP going into year 12 who plan to apply for medicine? I've seen one or two lurking previously and will try to tag if I can find their user names. Just conscious that I am always posting on the 2026 thread, yet DD is a year behind them and so my comments aren't so relevant.

Please come and join me here if you are interested.

@ethanelliot how about Manchester, Southampton, Liverpool, Newcastle? Leeds is a bit tricky as they like their 9s and they're opaque with their admission policy.

I presume you mean up from last year, but they are likely to drop slightly relative to interim results as later candidates tend to have lower results overall (because less organised candidates, last minute candidates, procrastinators etc take tests later.)

Final results will likely be 40-60 less than the interims

It thought the interims were a bit of relief in that they indicate the finals will be up but a bit less than last year. But it does seem a relentless annual climb.

does seem surprising though that nearly half of the expected sitting are after sept 13th. I see it is usually like this but still, I find it odd that son many sit after school goes back and in such a short window, even factoring in rescheduling.

@mumsneedwine, I have called the medicine admission line at Southamoton uni today. They told me that their lowest UCAT offer was 1950 and it was not contextual.

🤷‍♀️ they change as late offers are not easy to know about but v surprised Soton was that low. Good to know though

@mumsneedwine some are estimating UCAT cut off for KMMS will be 1880 this year, but I asked on their chat today what it would be and they just said "last year it was between 45% - 50%". Obviously we need to wait for the final deciles to be announced but I'm worried it might be 1900 based on the interim.

They say they don't set it until November, presumably after they have assessed all their applicants? I suppose most of these med schools are a risk with a below average score :-(

@SuperSue77 I'm afraid it's all a bit of guesswork. All you can do is apply and hope for the best. Strange things happen every year so if close turn have a go 🤞🤞

Hi @SuperSue77 are you looking at KMMS?

What is the point of the deciles? It seems to me that most med schools just interview the top however number of applicants and that’s a moveable number. This is all so convoluted I’ve never in my life seen a system so uttery confusing, unnecessarily complicated and stressful. You aren’t just picking unis that you like, you are grappling about in the dark trying to pick ones you might get an interview at based on who applied last year. And that means that who applies this year is going to look completely different. It’s nuts. DS at a state school with no strategic application guidance trying to help his friends pick unis and they are for the most part all completely clueless. This system seems to benefit kids in schools with someone who can help and kids with parents that can overthink it all for them. A lot of them are relying on Reddit etc and the advice on there is inaccurate and muddled. I’m venting, sorry! Very frustrated by this entire process!

Even with strategic thought, weird things can happen as the strategic thought can have impacts. Cynically, for strategic applications to really help, you needs lots of people who aren’t being strategic (kidding a bit). For instance, the more widely recognised it is that you need a high UCAT for Bristol, the higher the score of the average applicant to Bristol climbs. Every so often the system collapses because enough people think “oh it’s not with applying to x university” and the cut off plunges. And then the non-strategic person wins!

it’s all a bit grim

A few universities use deciles. I think Leicester (though I might have remembered the wrong uni) don’t consider anyone in the lowest three deciles. But mostly it gives you an idea over how this year’s scores compare to last year’s. If the deciles are all
much higher then the likely cutoff scores at universities will also be higher.

I agree the strategic application stuff is wild mostly because the final cutoffs are unknown. But I guess it isn’t much different to other subjects looking at A levels and GCSEs - just more intense and less transparent. You wouldn’t apply to a uni asking AAA for history with predicted scores of BBB even though that uni might sometimes accept BBB.

The deciles are there to indicate approximate grades/boundaries and some places do indicate where they might cut off. Yes, it's all alot of guess work and a significant factor that can't be 'predicted' so well is obviously human behaviour (how many will 'take a chance' and apply to x).

In general, this seems to be the whole approach of university applications in this country, albeit for med/vet med/dent it's all 100x worse. It doesn't make a lot of sense for teachers to guesstimate predicted grades (no matter how experienced they are), and then for institutions to make offers based on those guesstimations, and then almost do it all over again in mid-August where actual grades come in and almost the whole dance begins again.

We were talking to friends in Germany and they were asking (as people do),'which uni is YP going to?' and my vague answer of 'oh we don't know yet, but we received offers to X and Y and we hope he gets one of them' was met with 'huh'? Their arbiturs are marked within weeks and they get their grades and then do their shopping/application by May and off they go by the autumn (at least for the vast majority).

FWIW, we were told that the interims are usually slightly higher by 40-60 points so do hang on tight and hopefully the deciles will be similar to last year's.

I think deciles will be about 40-60 higher than last year as the interims are. But who knows. As you've all said it's a bit of a guessing game. All you can do is try and be as strategic as you can.
One you love and is aspirational, 2 safe as can be and 1 you are close to. Or variations on this.

It's been like this for a long time. Everyone has good grades so they need something to differentiate. When BMAT was still around at least had a second chance.

I work at a state school and we are trying our best to get the information out there (why I'm here). I do tend to focus on WP as I am paid by my school and lots of ours are. If anyone can think of other ways we can get information to schools please let me know.

Yes! We thought that DD wouldn’t have a chance as her school has a high attainment 8 score (63.5) but then we did more investigation and it’s been suggested that she needs to be 25% above her school average and she is 34% above so it’s back on the list. Only issue now is whether her UCAT will be high enough to be above their cut off so that they will consider her GCSEs.

@mumsneedwine,would this mean that UCAT cutoffs could also go 40-60 higher? As the deciles increase it also show that there are more candidates in higher deciles with high UCATs, is it correct? I think I am at a stage where I started to overthink the whole strategic application process.

Fab! Well if you do get here even for open day or interview let me know. Happy to take you for a coffee or show you around.

They normally go down a few points from interim to final report. The deciles divide those taking the test into ten equal sized groups. So the same proportion in each decile. There will only be more in the top decile if more people take the test overall.

UCAT normally pops up a calculator where they allow you to put in your score and it will tell you what percentage of other candidates you sit above.

Thanks

The deciles are likely to be higher this year as the interim deciles are higher this year

My daughter is having problems deciding whether certain unis are too risky for medicine. She loves the idea of Sheffield and Newcastle. UCAT 2080 SJT band 1, GCSE’s six 9’s and two 8’s. Scores 66/100 on Newcastle points. Does anyone have any advice regarding these two unis? I feel like Sheffield might be too risky….really no clue about Newcastle as I seem to be reading something different every time I do a search!

Those are great stats - my understanding of Newcastle is that you need over 50 points for Newcastle, but hopefully @mumsneedwine has a more certain answer.

I think Sheffield is more like 2120 for a chance of interview - but as is often pointed out, if applicants are put off by a high UCAT being too risky, they may not apply meaning that the score needed for an interview will fall, so it could be a risky aspirational one.

Thanks @SuperSue77 it’s so hard to know what to do. Daughter not keen on Southampton or Leicester (no idea why as we’ve not visited!). We’re also constrained by no Chem A level. Good to hear Newcastle might be possible…although a long way away for us!

That makes it trickier if you have to exclude the places that require chemistry :-( But not impossible :-)

My DD wasn't keen on Leicester after we visited, but I loved it and would have it in my top 4 if I was applying! I think the med school is great but I think it was the city she wasn't keen on. We did arrive at 9pm on a Friday night into the station, so probably didn't see its best side.

Do check what others say about Newcastle, as I'm only going on what I've heard third hand and as DD scores 45 there we have discounted it without looking too closely.

Maybe we’ll do a couple more visits…I think you really do have to visit in person to get a good idea of whether you like the uni/city. Best of luck to your daughter @SuperSue77 and thanks for the advice!