If a Russell Group uni says it will very likely accept you even if you drop a grade .....

[Gilnahirk]

..... is this likely to apply only if the uni is your firm choice? Or might it apply to an insurance choice as well?
DS1 was planning to choose 2 AAB offers as firm and insurance, with the above-mentioned uni as the insurance. But he is now losing his nerve. His other insurance option is BBB, but he doesn't really like the campus concerned.
Any comments welcome. Thanks.

I would always advise students to go for what they want. He should firm the offer he wants most, and try not to lose his nerve.

Did the insurance choice go to clearing in his subject last year? If he misses his firm choice, and his second choice have already said they'd consider him with ABB, I doubt they'd cut off their nose to spite their face because he didn't firm them.

Students getting ABB and above are not subject to government student number controls, so financially and so on, it's a no-brainer for whichever university to take him.

Do be aware that even if they say this now, they may change their minds come results day, and they will have every right to do so.

We can't tell if the willingness to accept dropped grades will also apply to insurance choices - and chances are that the uni won't either until A Level results reach them in August and they can see what the cohort as a whole got, and therefore how many places they have left.

However, I would never advise someone to put down an insurance choice that they wouldn't want to go to.

I know southampton say they will accept a drop of one mark, but they prioritise firm over insurance

Any comments welcome.

Who dares wins!

If he doesn't like the BBB choice then don't put them as CI.

If it all goes pear-shaped then he can re-apply next year: he will be no worse off, just a year older and a year wiser.

It depends on other applications and A level grades.

Basically we work on our best guess of offers to places. History tells us that about 25% of students we offer will firm us and get the grades.

Some years, we might get less firms or the A level results overall are lower than usual. In which case, we will be more generous on missed grades.

In other years, we might have more firms who all get their grades, so we will then not have the places for students that have missed.

The other key issue is, as mentioned above, the ABB/BBB divide. At BBB places are limited (due to student number controls), so even if admission staff would like to take them, we might not be able to.

Unless they really don't like the university, it is always worth ensuring you have a proper insurance place, e.g. one on a lower grade offer.

Thanks for your comments. I know creamteas is right and there are no guarantees. I'll look into whether they went into clearing last year
Thanks again.

Do be aware that what happened last year in Clearing is no indication of what will happen this year - it can change an awful lot.

Particularly as the "premium" has dropped from AAB to ABB.

I second/third/fourth the advice for applicants to choose the university & the course they want to study, and not try to "game" the system. There really isn't a game as much as some people think. Universities want to find the students who they judge (from long experience) will best fit & thrive.

Ds missed a grade and didn't get into his first choice but got into his insurance (same offer as first choice, both rgs) automatically.

No frantic ringing. No clearing. Just an automatic acceptance showing online on results day.

(Advice -check UCAS before you set off to get results. Saves a lot of anguish!).

The insurance has turned out to be perfect for him in terms of course and location.