Swine flu - good and bad news

[Gotte]

Numbers infected in the UK is down from 11000 last week to 30000 this week, which is just above the seasonal average (if I read it right).
The bad news is that there seems to be a rise in deaths in Australia, Argentina, and, most worryingly, Mexico, where it first started. I've read this might be an indication that the predicted more deadly second wave is starting.
I seem to remember reading we are about a month behind the US/Australia/Mexico.
Keep an eye on it.

Links please. If we are to be "keeping an eye on it"; where are you reading this stuff?

Isn't that going up?

Argentina and Mexico are in the southern hemisphere, so they are currently in their main flu season. Isn't it expected that they would have a surge of deaths during this time?

This link specifically states that "The good news from Argentina is that its strain has not mutated and turned especially deadly. Genetic sequencing shows its swine flu remains virtually identical to the strain seen in Mexico and the US, boosting chances that a single vaccine can work everywhere.

Medical experts have been relieved to see no signs of resistance to antiviral drugs even though the government distributed 2m courses of Tamiflu free to public hospitals. That suggests the drug will remain effective in northern hemisphere countries bracing for winter."

It also states that they think the worst is now over in Argentina.

Links:

www.theage.com.au/world/sharp-rise-of-swine-flu-cases-in-mexico-20090805-ea1h.html

www.independent.co.uk/life-style/health-and-families/health-news/swine-flu-lull-after-dram atic-fall-in-cases-1768223.html

("Meanwhile, there are signs that the virus is spreading in the southern hemisphere, at the height of its winter flu season. Deaths have almost doubled in Argentina and they have also risen sharply again in Mexico, which may be entering a second wave of the epidemic - the first country to do so.

Sir Liam said that the Government is also closely monitoring the situation in Australia where there has been more than 24,000 confirmed cases of swineful and nearly 80 deaths, with 422 people with swineflu currently hospitalised and 117 of them in intensive care.")

www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=340840&CategoryId=14091

Just when I thought the insane hysteria was dying down a tad.

And 11000 to 30000 is a big rise in numbers...

The seasons and temperatures are changing there though, we get shit weather and the same temp for most of the year so we might escape.
It's normal for diseases to fluctuate, it's dependant on people activity/weather etc. People die of the normal flu anyway, I still wouldn't panic.

The numbers are wrong, I think they meant to say down from 110,000 to 30,000

Sorry, yes, missed out a zero, should have been 110000 to 30000.

"Insane hysteria"? Could I counter that with "Clarksonesque hyperbole"? I'll spare you the emoticon, though. I find them rather, well, uncalled for.

They have no idea how many have had swine flu becuase almost everyone I know who has (including me) has not bothered to contact a GP (in Wales we cannot use the swine flu line)

From now on it is conjecture. I bet many of those confirmed had a different virus anyhow.

The key is genetic mutation, which doesn't seem to have ocurred yet.

yeah it's all a complete nonsense the figures, we've had it bad and hope other people don't get it we did our best to stop the spread by staying in all lonely and poorly (get your violins out! lol), think a lot of people have been misdiagnosed bound to happen when you are diagnosed online x

P.S Am sure the coverage of negative affects of tamiflu was no coincidence either as stops people who aren't really ill going online and trying to get tamiflu - hence drop in 'cases', as like us you'd only take tamiflu if you were desparate! We didn't have any side effects by the way x

Just for you, Gotte

That's the trouble, though, isn;t it, Peachy. On the one hand, you have people saying that most people haven't had the swine flu, just a virus, but have been prescribed tamiflu over the internet (as has my daughter), but on the other hand, there is the belief that many people have had the swine flu, but have not had it so bad as to consider it flu (that's where I am with the "virus" I've had this last week, in conjunction with my daughter). My daughter has had a temp, sometimes getting just over 40 deg, but is okay with paracetemal. But she still has a temp five days later, usually at night, which is not like her, not is not like any other virus I've known her have. She's been hospitalised twice with viruses which have knocked her out, but they've only ever laseted about 3 day max.
It's such a grey area. Such a shame they don;t swab anymore, much as I know it would be so impractical...But at least we'd have a clear idea where we stood.

It is the problem yes

My boys had a virus which i thought might be it- when they did get it though we knew! Bastard of a disease. My boys categorically never get ill in any real way and when I went down with a virus for a day or so I just thought it's a plain old one day thing. However the boys took it far worse- paracetamol ineffective sorelying on child ibuprofen, ds2 went down suddenly on holiday (thankfully day we came home) and so very suddenly- collpased in a restaurant. baby got it last and has struggled most of all but they are beating it and we want their dses saved for any mutation if it happens. DH of course hasn't had a thing

I would say the characteristcs have been sheer dragging out of it all, sore throat, cough after the infectious stage that just dopesn't shift and most notably with 4 boys the lack of appetite for anything to eat whatsoever- ds1 has AS and a hatred of drinks at the best of times, we were seriously considering a phone call to A&E after a day of refusal