How likely is this nightmare situation?

[Imposter1]

1. loads and LOADS of people get omicron

2. this gives a huge number of chances for the virus to mutate by chance

3. one of those variants changes so much that vaccines no longer work at all

4. we are back to square 1, March 2020

Will that variant be likely to be less severe as well? Eg just like a cold? Or could it go back to being serious (think collapsing outside a shop in Wuhan)

One of the reasons we should limit infections is because the chances of a freak mutation increase. It’s a bit like buying 1 lotto ticket or buying 90,000…

We have vaccines now plus we can still take measures such as ventilation, masks and testing.

Yeah but could it change again so we have to start from scratch? What is the chance?

I think mutations get weaker and weaker as they change

So yes still very infectious but not as likely to be seriously ill

Well nothing is beyond the realms of possibility, but that isn't how viruses work usually so I won't be worrying about this unless it happens. Not even then really, because I don't worry about stuff I can't control.

The drs also know more about what medications work now.

I don’t know HOW likely it is but you will hear them talk about vaccine escape, ie the idea any new variant can bypass your immmune system by not looking enough like the original virus to be detected. So it could happen, but how likely and whether it would be as/more/less severe I don’t know at all.

I don't think there's any reasons mutations are necessarily milder.
However, you are inviting problems. Prior to 2020 were you worrying about a pandemic? To some extent we need to prioritise what we worry about and trust in some sort of higher forces for the rest.

How will it help any of us (who are not scientists) to dwell on worst case scenarios?

Can any one of you by worrying add a single hour to your life?

Do what you can to stay as safe as you can, and want to, as things are right now, but don't borrow tomorrow's trouble too.

No one can tell you that. Scientists would love to know.

Is it helpful to think about?

It seems less rather than more likely, especially if everyone gets the vaccine.

I think mutations get weaker and weaker as they change

This isn't the case. However the reverse is also not true. Viruses mutate all the time. They don't care if they're more or less virulent. They're less likely to survive and become dominant if they're not very good at transmission (nothing to do with severity) of kill off their host before transmission. But they don't care. Covid transmits long before it kills the host (if it ever does) so it has no real reason to become more or less severe. It doesn't make a difference. It isn't killing enough people to reduce the numbers of hosts it can find so again no selection pressure against more severe illness there. But the fact that this version transmits so much better and isn't obviously more serious is hugely lucky.

Well anything could mutate. Covid, flu, chickenpox, the common cold, polio, something not yet on our radar. Covid is currently the worry du jour. It’ll be something else in a couple of years.

Viruses mutuate all the time. In fact, what you have in your body at the time of infection is a 'cloud' of virus particles, each with slightly different genomes. I only learned this last week, because each genome made during replication can mutate. Obviously the more people are ill with this virus, the more chances it has to mutate.

I think the view that we will be back at March 2020 is too pessimistic and extreme. We do have vaccines which can be tweaked as we know so much more about this virus than we did then.

Oh and the video of a woman collapsing in the street from Covid is fake, for want of a better word.

Well anything could mutate.

Anything could but flexibility is firmly with Covid at the moment. It's not a level playing field as I expect your surprise if you heard about a new variant of chicken pox would tell you.

In general viruses get less deadly and more infectious. Which is a good thing for us as it will become more like the flu and goood for the virus as it doesn’t want to kill its host it’s aim is survival. A more deadly strain isn’t the name of the game for viruses

There will always be mutations- Covid will not just disappear and it's not practical to limit infections for years to come so what is the point?

Why worry about Covid mutating and sending us back to March 2020 when it’s equally likely we could have another pandemic of something new and different? Or focus on the climate instead! It’s an excellent distraction from the first worry

Isn't Covid 19 a particular mutation of existing SARs and Corona Viruses?

So in theory, we are already at or past the point you're talking about?

The truth is anything could happen. We'll just have to deal with whatever happens.

OP, it could happen, but worrying about it isn't going to do anything the affect the outcome.

Nope. Viruses of this type are MORE likely to become progressively weaker and eventually end up as (for most hosts) a short -term recoverable illness, like influenza. Like flu in future covid may still kill /damage hosts whose health is compromised in some other way, but has little or no longterm effect on the young and fit.

We'll learn to live around it, like we do with flu. Routine periodic vaccination for those at most risk. Sensible health precautions for the rest. A week's misery if robust people catch it.

Eventually, research will produce some treatment which saves the lives of those infected(as has already happened with HIV). We're already on that road with a new treatment for covid patients.

Not so long ago, AIDS was a death sentence. It's now very survivable to normal lifespan.

Nope. Viruses of this type are MORE likely to become progressively weaker and eventually end up as (for most hosts) a short -term recoverable illness, like influenza.

If that was always the case, we wouldn't have long lived serious viruses that have been around for generations. There are reasons why that might happen but equally reasons why it doesn't need to happen. As Covid is symptomless during part of the infectious phase it has less reason to follow your model. However it has no personal interest in becoming more deadly either.

Your a virus and your aim is to thrive not to kill of your hosts......mutating into something that kills your host is not a plan for success. Mutations making you more infectious and ensuring a large host group are much more successful. This is why viruses tend to mutate into weaker versions of themselves and all the energy of changes goes into making it easier to transfer from host to host.

There are exceptions to every rule buts it's so unlikely to happen!

A mutation that completely escapes immunity from vaccinations and previous infection is unlikely to happen suddenly. Even if there was significant change to the virus, we wouldn't be back to square one. And the vaccines are relatively easy to tweak - although of course it takes some time to do that and then produce enough doses.

One of the reasons we should limit infections is because the chances of a freak mutation increase

One thing I’ve wondered about this specific point is why don’t we take this care with flu? I know flu isn’t covid, but pre-covid, weren’t all the predictions and preparations around the next pandemic being a flu pandemic. Flu can obviously be really bad. But I’ve never heard anyone say we should limit flu infections because of the increased chance of mutation.

Is that because it’s not necessary for flu. Or is it because it is necessary but scientists a few years ago knew there was no point asking people to isolate if they were a contact of flu etc because people wouldn’t have done it. In fact they’d have probably been laughed out of the room. And it’s only the seriousness of covid that has allowed a message of “even if it mutates to something not really serious, we need to limit infections because it may mutate again” to be put out?