Deaths aren't increasing

[cripez]

Please please jump in and correct me on this if I'm being thick, but as a general rule even though cases are rising, deaths aren't.

Surely this is proof of vaccines working and therefore a good thing?

@Delatron

Without vaccines we would be seeing huge numbers of deaths now with this amount of cases. Vaccines are working very well, hence opening up.

They’ll go up slightly but stay low as a proportion of cases. We’ll be nowhere near the 1,000 deaths a day.

We would see those kinds of numbers if we got to the point of over 300,000 cases a day. (Not that we'd know, the system can't cope with that many tests.)

Or if the current ratio of deaths to cases increases once Delta spreads up into older age groups.

And of course, all course mortality rises when you overload your health system with people suffering from a preventable disease.

The link's not weakened @MarshaBradyo

No covid cases = no covid deaths.

Low covid cases = low covid deaths.

When covid cases rise so do covid deaths. (But after a lag)

The vaccines have changed the ratio of cases to hospitalisations and deaths.

The proportions are different now.

But the principle remains.

@PrincessNutNuts

The link's not weakened *@MarshaBradyo*

No covid cases = no covid deaths.

Low covid cases = low covid deaths.

When covid cases rise so do covid deaths. (But after a lag)

The vaccines have changed the ratio of cases to hospitalisations and deaths.

The proportions are different now.

But the principle remains.

I don’t get this.

CMO and CSA have said the link is weakened but not broken completely.

The proportion being different is what is meant by the link being weakened

@midgemagneto

The proportion being different is what is meant by the link being weakened

Yes it sounds the same to me too

The figures for those admitted to hospital have not been updated since 03/07

That's a bit of a startling omission, whilst daily cases are doubling every 9 days and there is a need tomshow a weakening link

Or if the current ratio of deaths to cases increases once Delta spreads up into older age groups.

What has been restricting the spread of delta into older age groups?

Why has it not spread up into older age groups in the same way it did in the other waves?

When do you think it will get to the older age groups?

@UnmentionedElephantDildo

The figures for those admitted to hospital have not been updated since 03/07

That's a bit of a startling omission, whilst daily cases are doubling every 9 days and there is a need tomshow a weakening link

They've never been updated daily as not all regions/nations report daily.

Hospitalisations are now rising exponentially (just like anyone with half a brain has been warning you for the last month).

Doubling times (days):

32.4, 22.1, 18.5, 14.9, 13.3, 12.7, 11.5, 10.7.

That comes out to be 3000 hospitalisations a day in a months time.

I dont think anyone has said that hospitalisations won't rise? Arguing against something no one has said doesn't make you the clever one.

Don’t feed the trolls

At the current point in the vaccination programme deaths are approx. 0.3% of cases. Deaths lag cases by 3 weeks. 7th July 33 deaths, 16th June 10,476 cases (0.3% death rate).

From this we can extrapolate that with 100,000 cases a day we will expect around 315 deaths a day.

Without vaccination however deaths would be far higher. On Jan 22nd we had 1500 deaths. 3 weeks prior we had 53000 cases per day so the death rate was around 2.8%. Without vaccination and with 100,000 cases a day we could expect around 2,830 deaths a day.

So vaccination is helping a great deal but high cases does unfortunately still mean some deaths.

@Indigopearl

At the current point in the vaccination programme deaths are approx. 0.3% of cases. Deaths lag cases by 3 weeks. 7th July 33 deaths, 16th June 10,476 cases (0.3% death rate).

From this we can extrapolate that with 100,000 cases a day we will expect around 315 deaths a day.

Without vaccination however deaths would be far higher. On Jan 22nd we had 1500 deaths. 3 weeks prior we had 53000 cases per day so the death rate was around 2.8%. Without vaccination and with 100,000 cases a day we could expect around 2,830 deaths a day.

So vaccination is helping a great deal but high cases does unfortunately still mean some deaths.

All good points but isn’t it a moving target?

Ie today there are more vaccinated than three weeks ago so the proportion of deaths will decrease more

That is true but 100,000 cases is expected in 2 weeks time so I doubt it will change much in that timeframe, especially as those getting vaccination now are younger. Most of the deaths will be the older vaccinated people for whom the vaccine did not work and the older people who chose not to have the vaccine.

@Indigopearl

That is true but 100,000 cases is expected in 2 weeks time so I doubt it will change much in that timeframe, especially as those getting vaccination now are younger. Most of the deaths will be the older vaccinated people for whom the vaccine did not work and the older people who chose not to have the vaccine.

Ok I had wondered about that.

If this is the case then it aligns with Chris Whitty’s point re not delaying

Only 6 deaths today. I know it’s the weekend lag but it’s an amazingly low number

It's also a moving target with the planned change in how people will behave on 19th July.

@Cafeaulait27

Only 6 deaths today. I know it’s the weekend lag but it’s an amazingly low number

It is. But the rolling 7 day total is 50% up which is not so good (approximately twice the percentage increase for positive tests, but IIRC in line with the rates for them a couple of weeks ago)

The numbers admitted to hospital haven't been updated since 6/07.

Percentages don’t sound good when you are dealing with low figures to start with though.

They are remaining low despite high case rates. Some increase is to be expected and the NHS is coping

Correct, but exponential growth does not remain low.

That's the very basics of exponential growth (and cases have been doubling around every 9-11 days)

Link between cases and hospital admissions has been weakened (if I heard correctly) down to about 3%

If that is correct, and we have two more doublings (and Whitty has just said that they expect a rise following the lifting of restrictions) then we have a bigger wave than the first one, and at 3% a similar number of hospital admissions. This means that NHS will not get the chance to tackle the backlog, but will cope better as it'll be outside the 'normal' winter pressures.

Boris has just rowed back from irreversibility of the changes, btw

100,000 cases is expected in 2 weeks time

I thought it was originally 21 June when that was supposed to happen, and didn't it then change to today?

Admittedly I pay very little attention to these predictions of doom so I lose track sometimes, but those who keep posting them must be devastated to see it's actually about a third of that

It's not a prediction of doom, it's an explanation of exponential growth

And likewise we have seen a statement today saying the NHS will cope. Because it’s summer.

Whereas we keep restrictions then release in autumn/winter and that would be a different scenario.

We want to the peak to be very soon. We shouldn’t be alarmed about cases. They were always going to go up coming out of lockdown. They want that to happen now and not in winter.

There are reports today that we should start to see cases falling in August. For once the timing of restrictions easing has been right.

Doubling rate is around 16 days currently and the latest ratio of cases to admissions is 2.8%